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1/12 - 1/13 GL's/OV Potential Major Winter Storm

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#101
Tabitha

Posted 12 January 2018 - 05:31 AM

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There are a few snow showers in the area on radar; though it is dry here at 6:30 AM MDT.

 

Ground is bare here; maybe you could say there is a trace on the ground.

 

Even Lead; elevation of about 5200' and with a mean annual average of about 15 feet (180 inches), is reporting just one inch on the ground and just one inch for January 2018.

 

Conditions may become more favorable for snow here over the next few days as the wind may veer towards the east and a bit of an upslope may develop. 

 

We'll see...

 

Snowfall for the season here is at 10.7"; central South Dakota has done even more poorly...as Aberdeen & Pierre are in the 4 to 5 inch range for the entire 2017-18 winter.  The NWS WFO in Rapid City is at 8.6".



#102
Niko

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:14 AM

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Moderate snow here currently and windy conditions. Temp @ 29F and dropping!!! My accumulations have been upped to 3-5", locally more in spots under heavy banding.


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#103
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:37 AM

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Flash Flood Warning on top of a WSW in Northern PA. This same area is about to receive up to 10" of snow. The flash freezing situation up there should be fun.

Attached Files

  • Attached File  FFW.png   8.98KB   0 downloads

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.5"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#104
snowstorm83

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:45 AM

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My parents in Mississippi just changed over to heavy snow. This is on top of 1/2-1" of sleet. Wild morning down there, everything is shut down. 


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#105
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:03 AM

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RPM...you get the idea on what to expect in terms of LES...

 

DTWUiH1XcAAgmlo.jpg



#106
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:18 AM

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LES band is developing over Cook and I will confirm light snow is falling here. Darker clouds just to my east and it looks like it may be drifting a touch west.

#107
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:51 AM

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:o  :o  :lol: Canadien short-ranger ftw

 

Just let me see those rates once this winter..pls & thx

 

attachicon.gif20180111 12z 24hr HRDPS precip.png

 

WOW...looking good there Jaster. Hopefully, that darker blue slides my way. :D That has to be extrememly heavy snow.

 

Attached File  20180112 KRMY morning +SN.PNG   22.1KB   0 downloads

 

And per my airport ASOS, it was the heaviest ever since I've been paying attention to it. This is the first time I've ever seen it register +SN which means it was actually more like ++SN 

 

Sadly, I'd left town to skate my way to the office, but it was bliz conditions around BC for the first 20 or so miles. Cars even on surface streets crawling at 25 mph due to the layer of ZR under the snow. WWA extended to 7 pm prolly shoulda been upgraded. GRR's Afd even said as much, yet they don't. What a bunch of chumps. Yet, they'll upgrade for 4" of fluff effect snow off the lake. 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 5"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 5.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#108
Tabitha

Posted 12 January 2018 - 09:00 AM

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There are a few snow showers in the area on radar; though it is dry here at 6:30 AM MDT.

 

Ground is bare here; maybe you could say there is a trace on the ground.

 

Even Lead; elevation of about 5200' and with a mean annual average of about 15 feet (180 inches), is reporting just one inch on the ground and just one inch for January 2018.

 

Conditions may become more favorable for snow here over the next few days as the wind may veer towards the east and a bit of an upslope may develop. 

 

We'll see...

 

Snowfall for the season here is at 10.7"; central South Dakota has done even more poorly...as Aberdeen & Pierre are in the 4 to 5 inch range for the entire 2017-18 winter.  The NWS WFO in Rapid City is at 8.6".

 

We had about 1/10 of an inch of snow in snow showers.  Actually it was closer to 5/100ths of an inch; but I figured "what the heck" and decided to round upwards...

 

The sun is peeking though now; actually, the sun shone through dimly the whole time; and none of this even showed up on the radar; which would lead me to believe that the cloud deck was *very* thin and made up of just some low level clouds.

 

The cold and the ratios are never problems here.  If precipitation falls from November through March; it will almost certainly be snow.  Likewise; the ratios are also very good.  I have seen many reports nearby of up to a 1/2 inch of snow based on a trace of liquid equivalent.

 

The bad news is that it is more arid than the Gobi Desert; and that has proven to be quite the sticking point.

 

I suppose I write to sort of punctuate the bizarre (and not in a good way!) nature of the climate here; as it a good deal removed from what I was anticipating.

 

I'm quite fond of the area; but my lease expires in the summertime; and if the weather does not suit my changeable moods; I might consider moving on at that point in time; as I'm not one to suffer dissatisfactory outcomes for extended spells. 

 

I'm going where the sun keeps shining
Through the pouring rain
Going where the weather suits my clothes
Banking off of the northeast winds
Sailing on a summer breeze
And skipping over the ocean like a stone
___Nilsson
 

 

Eventually the law of averages should even things out around here...I hope.



#109
NEJeremy

Posted 12 January 2018 - 09:31 AM

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We had about 1/10 of an inch of snow in snow showers.  Actually it was closer to 5/100ths of an inch; but I figured "what the heck" and decided to round upwards...

 

The sun is peeking though now; actually, the sun shone through dimly the whole time; and none of this even showed up on the radar; which would lead me to believe that the cloud deck was *very* thin and made up of just some low level clouds.

 

The cold and the ratios are never problems here.  If precipitation falls from November through March; it will almost certainly be snow.  Likewise; the ratios are also very good.  I have seen many reports nearby of up to a 1/2 inch of snow based on a trace of liquid equivalent.

 

The bad news is that it is more arid than the Gobi Desert; and that has proven to be quite the sticking point.

 

Eventually the law of averages should even things out around here...I hope.

I just wanted to say I always like hearing your reports from Lead. Lead can get some CRAZY amounts of snow! My grandma lives in Spearfish and my grandpa before he retired and has passed away, used to help run Homestake Mine there in Lead. He even helped run a location in Peru(the country :) ). I still LOVE going out to the Hills and have lots of wonderful childhood memories from there. Very beautiful country! 


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#110
Tabitha

Posted 12 January 2018 - 09:45 AM

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I just wanted to say I always like hearing your reports from Lead. Lead can get some CRAZY amounts of snow! My grandma lives in Spearfish and my grandpa before he retired and has passed away, used to help run Homestake Mine there in Lead. He even helped run a location in Peru(the country :) ). I still LOVE going out to the Hills and have lots of wonderful childhood memories from there. Very beautiful country! 

 

Actually I don't live in Lead proper (and I'm sure I never said I did...the considerably lower altitude under Location is a dead giveway); I'm sort of down the spine of the Hills just a bit...the numbers I gave are from the cooperative page...and here is the link to it:

 

http://mesonet.agron...network=SD_COOP

 

There are big differences in average annual snowfall around here (as you probably know); so much so that by driving 25 miles and going up 1500 feet, you can increase your annual average three fold.

 

The computer models do not seem to do terribly well here; as they do not handle the mountains well (IMO) and significant errors are common; even within 6 hours.

 

It is very beautiful here; and I think it will turn around for the better eventually...

 

I am glad that you like the reports from out here.


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#111
Niko

Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:12 AM

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attachicon.gif20180112 KRMY morning +SN.PNG

 

And per my airport ASOS, it was the heaviest ever since I've been paying attention to it. This is the first time I've ever seen it register +SN which means it was actually more like ++SN 

 

Sadly, I'd left town to skate my way to the office, but it was bliz conditions around BC for the first 20 or so miles. Cars even on surface streets crawling at 25 mph due to the layer of ZR under the snow. WWA extended to 7 pm prolly shoulda been upgraded. GRR's Afd even said as much, yet they don't. What a bunch of chumps. Yet, they'll upgrade for 4" of fluff effect snow off the lake. 

Go figure, right?! :rolleyes:

 

So, how much ya have so far in the snow dept? :unsure:



#112
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:13 AM

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That lake band is parked right over my house. I’m in the city and its been snowing with varying intensity but not accumulating much. Wonder if this band intensifies later tonight.

#113
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:35 AM

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Go figure, right?! :rolleyes:

 

So, how much ya have so far in the snow dept? :unsure:

 

Idk tbh? ASOS reported SN to ++SN with reasonably low vis for about 5 hrs so GRR's concern about a last minute trend up to 3-6 may have verified. If I was more saavy at searching local reports from automated and spotter peeps, I'd likely be able to paint a reasonable picture even from this distance. But I'll see later or when GRR posts something on it. How 'bout yby?


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 5"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 5.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#114
Niko

Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Idk tbh? ASOS reported SN to ++SN with reasonably low vis for about 5 hrs so GRR's concern about a last minute trend up to 3-6 may have verified. If I was more saavy at searching local reports from automated and spotter peeps, I'd likely be able to paint a reasonable picture even from this distance. But I'll see later or when GRR posts something on it. How 'bout yby?

They are saying around 2.3" atm. Idk, maybe it will creep up higher later on. Definitely got my whitecover back thank goodness. W this arctic air arriving, woulda been dull w bare ground. Ugh!



#115
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:23 AM

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Wow, this lake effect is legit! Suddenly, the lake band just intensified outta nowhere! It looks beautiful out here in the city with the winds howling and blowing the snow all over the place. At times, there are mini “white” ground tornados whipped up in between the buildings. #Awesomeness

The funny things is, none of the models picked up on this today except for maybe the WRF. Awesome surprise!
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#116
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 04:17 PM

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@ Indianajohn, you getting in on that band???  Not much accumulation over here except for some spots getting a coating.  It was fun seeing some embedded heavier snow showers while I was down in the city today.  The video you see on TV doesn't do it justice when your out in the elements.  Soldier Field clocked a 51mph wind gust and I was literally along the lakefront for most of the day.  It was certainly a howling wind off the lake.  Too bad we didn't have better inversion hieghts or this set up would have pounded lakeside counties.  I'm surprised how persistent these snow showers have been since the afternoon as they haven't budged at all.



#117
indianajohn

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:45 PM

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Started hear around 7:30 or so.... love LES snow!!!
@ Indianajohn, you getting in on that band??? Not much accumulation over here except for some spots getting a coating. It was fun seeing some embedded heavier snow showers while I was down in the city today. The video you see on TV doesn't do it justice when your out in the elements. Soldier Field clocked a 51mph wind gust and I was literally along the lakefront for most of the day. It was certainly a howling wind off the lake. Too bad we didn't have better inversion hieghts or this set up would have pounded lakeside counties. I'm surprised how persistent these snow showers have been since the afternoon as they haven't budged at all.


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#118
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:09 PM

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Wow, this lake effect is legit! Suddenly, the lake band just intensified outta nowhere! It looks beautiful out here in the city with the winds howling and blowing the snow all over the place. At times, there are mini “white” ground tornados whipped up in between the buildings. #Awesomeness
The funny things is, none of the models picked up on this today except for maybe the WRF. Awesome surprise!


Sounds fun! Glad you got that. In Marshall it was a noice little weenie band storm with 3.5" in about 5 hrs. Winds, +SN, and moist snow. All things I am fond of. The temp coaster was wild enough, but I don't ever remember having 60 degs one evening and a storm raging by morning. Not saying it never happens, just can't remember when I ever experienced it? The winds are still brutal. At the Lakeshore this morning, it was the strongest since Dec '12 blizzard in Wisconsin. It was actually difficult to walk from the parking lot across the street..such a weird system..another one on tap too.
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 5"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 5.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#119
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:44 PM

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And ofc, no snowfall map from GRR since their backyard was shafted. Typically lame!

K, better late than never..today they posted one:



Attached File  StormTotalSnow_01_12-13_2018.png   187.54KB   0 downloads

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 5"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 5.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."