Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 If this winter is as cold as 1968-69 I’ll eat the chair swinging at my face.The Cubs won the WS. Dennis Rodman, Kim Kardashian, and Kanye West are top advisors to president Donald Trump, who just publicly embraced “little Rocket Man”, who’s country he threatened to nuke at a UN address. Oh, and the Caps won the Stanley Cup. Topping 1969 would be a small feat by comparison. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Throw me a bone. I’m not asking for any specific prediction for next winter. Just the general reasoning behind your prediction for a long term cycle of bigger winters. It’s theoretically possible, but there are so many whens, whys, and hows re: how it may or may not happen, that it’s a difficult prediction to make.Low solar/ENSO trends mainly for this coming winter and climate oscillations for the longer term cycle. I'll get into more detail as we get closer to winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Heat waves in June don't happen often here in June though. We are still 1.5 months away from the peak of our summers here in the PNW.At least 78% of June heatwaves happen in June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 He’s been on a roll......................................................................................................How high are You? . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 This is impressive... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 At least 78% of June heatwaves happen in June.Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Heat waves in June don't happen often here in June though. We are still 1.5 months away from the peak of our summers here in the PNW.Same here..August is our nastiest month. The reason congress takes recess in August is because the heat was so unbearable back when there was no AC or electricity that they all just packed up and left town. Over the years it became a tradition of sorts. This place almost feels like a ghost town between July 25th and August 25th. The air is dead calm. It’s hazy. There are cicadas screaming day and night. Almost everyone leaves, us included. It’s such a heavy feeling..you just have to get away from it. And since Mitch McConnell cancelled the recess this year, my guess is it will be as swampy as ever with all that hot air being pumped out of the White House. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 PDX is within striking distance of 100 again on the 00Z ECMWF on Wednesday and Thursday (about 5 degrees warmer than the 12Z run). It shows 95 both days... but PDX has a tendency to over-perform. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Nice pattern change on the D11-15 EPS control run, and over half of the ensemble members. D5-10: D10-15: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Nice pattern change on the D11-15 EPS control run, and over half of the ensemble members. A cooler period has definitely come into view now on the EPS towards the end of the month on the last few runs. Its not always warm in the day 10-15 period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 If this winter is as cold as 1968-69 I’ll eat the chair swinging at my face. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Nice pattern change on the D11-15 EPS control run, and over half of the ensemble members. One thing I'm trying to understand.. I know you want cooler weather for your visit, but that's over a month away, right? What is your investment in our weather? Sometimes I get the feeling you've taken 10 to 1 odds with a Las Vegas bookie on our weather outcomes... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 This is impressive... That area is in a valley and subject to downsloping, kind of like a northern version of North Bend; I think their record high of 106.2F actually higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 One thing I'm trying to understand.. I know you want cooler weather for your visit, but that's over a month away, right? What is your investment in our weather? Sometimes I get the feeling you've taken 10 to 1 odds with a Las Vegas bookie on our weather outcomes... With Phil, it's generally the following mix: 33% genuine weather interest33% trolling33% rooting for an outcome that relates to something he's said Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Cloudy. Chilly. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 With Phil, it's generally the following mix: 33% genuine weather interest33% trolling33% rooting for an outcome that relates to something he's said The remaining 1% must be financial.... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 One thing I'm trying to understand.. I know you want cooler weather for your visit, but that's over a month away, right? What is your investment in our weather? Sometimes I get the feeling you've taken 10 to 1 odds with a Las Vegas bookie on our weather outcomes...A number of reasons, but to boil it down, I’m invested in the weather and climate anomalies across the globe. Not just in my own backyard. That would be an incredibly myopic and ignorant view of things if my interest in the weather was confined just to my region. Also, the vast majority of my extended family lives in the Seattle area, and I’ve always loved the feel of the area everytime I’ve visited. I’ve been to Chelan, Yakima, Leavenworth, Everett, Matlock, Seattle, and Vancouver, and loved all of them. I follow the weather in FL and coastal GA (another region close to my heart) just as much as I follow the weather in the PNW. But nobody here lives in FL/GA, so it’s less relevant in my commentary. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 The remaining 1% must be financial.... I think that 1% is just the weed talking. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Holy mama..check out the upper NATL subsurface temperature anomalies. Still early, but this really does have the structure of a developing NATL cold event. Persistent Baffin Vortex is starting to take its toll on the AMOC..it’s sort of being knocked over to the right as the polar front keeps expanding southward along with the westerlies. Not your typical +NAO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Maybe Dennis Quaid was onto something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 OT, but I found out I have a big retaining wall job on Monday..and low and behold, the HiRes ECMWF has a high of 99*F that day with a dewpoint of 78*F. With near maximum solar angles. Bloody motherf**ker. I’ll lose my s**t if anyone complains about 75*F highs on here again. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Maybe Dennis Quaid was onto something.Earth shattering global change is always right around the corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 OT, but I found out I have a big retaining wall job on Monday..and low and behold, the HiRes ECMWF has a high of 99*F that day with a dewpoint of 78*F. Bloody motherf**ker. I’ll lose my s**t if anyone complains about 75*F highs on here again. We don't complain much about 75-degree weather. Its the 55-degree weather in the warm season that brings the complaints. But again... we don't consider your hellish summer weather when considering our own preferences. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 We don't complain much about 75-degree weather. Its the 55-degree weather in the warm season that brings the complaints. But again... we don't consider your hellish summer weather when considering our own preferences. You heat misers are unappreciative, spoiled brats. I’ll be on my knees begging for 55*F drizzle as I’m lugging heavy stones across the job site Monday. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 You heat misers are unappreciative, spoiled brats. No. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Drought rages on, as we head into the true dry season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 No. At least no one is threatening to knock your teeth out with furniture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 We don't complain much about 75-degree weather. Its the 55-degree weather in the warm season that brings the complaints. But again... we don't consider your hellish summer weather when considering our own preferences. SEA hasn't had a day with a high in the 50s since April. Meanwhile, there have been 10 days with 75+ highs since then. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Drought rages on, as we head into the true dry season. I think the % of normal precip maps are even more revealing. It's been a very dry late spring/early summer for the western lowlands, and that doesn't look to change heading into real summer. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Drought rages on, as we head into the true dry season. FE31CCE3-D86A-44EE-9918-7E2A3E2A8E44.png64DD808E-37AA-4119-AF9E-1BC39AFC118A.pngA906D454-2390-4732-A7FB-BCD658B311C9.png Well... we know Montana is not dry. In fact they are expecting more heavy rain and flooding. And not even all of western WA or OR is dry over the last couple weeks per that map. Some areas have been wetter than normal. And we are still doing just fine up here when looking at 2018 so far... and we had a good soaking over the last week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 SEA hasn't had a day with a high in the 50s since April. Meanwhile, there have been 10 days with 75+ highs since then.Thank you. But facts don’t matter on here. 75 degrees with low humidity is hypothermia-inducing. Baffin Island weather. Ugly, depressing, suicide-inducing crap that no human being should have to endure. A travesty. Upper 90s are preferable. Low 100s would be even better. And anything above 110*F is nirvana! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 SEA hasn't had a day with a high in the 50s since April. Meanwhile, there have been 10 days with 75+ highs since then. I did not say 55-degree highs... I said 55-degree weather. There have been numerous days that were in the 50s well into the afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Thank you. But facts don’t matter on here. 75 degrees with low humidity is hypothermia-inducing. Baffin Island weather. Ugly, depressing, suicide-inducing crap that Mo human being should have to endure. A travesty. Upper 90s are preferable. Low 100s would be even better. And anything above 110*F is nirvana!The meltdowns on here would be pretty epic if next week’s heat evolved into beautiful 75 degree weather with a morning marine layer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Thank you. But facts don’t matter on here. 75 degrees with low humidity is hypothermia-inducing. Baffin Island weather. Ugly, depressing, suicide-inducing crap that Mo human being should have to endure. A travesty. Upper 90s are preferable. Low 100s would be even better. And anything above 110*F is nirvana! Duuuuuuuuuuuuude. You are making sh*t up now to vent your own frustrations with your own weather based on your own preferences. I understand that. I get very annoyed too when its not pleasant to be outside for long stretches based on my own preferences. But nobody on here complains about 75-degree sunshine and low humidity. Hell... I was saying that last weekend was fairly decent with highs in the low 60s and alternating sun and downpours. You are just ranting about nothing because you want to rant. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 I did not say 55-degree highs... I said 55-degree weather. There have been numerous days that were in the 50s well into the afternoon. Numerous? Maybe a few, but far more days in the 60s and 70s in the afternoon. At least for areas outside your little microclimate. It's been a warm, dry warm season so far. No way around that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 The meltdowns on here would be pretty epic if next week’s heat evolved into beautiful 75 degree weather with a morning marine layer.Oh hell yes. I’m doing everything in my power to will such a development into reality. Watching this place imlode would 100% be worth the price of me torching. God forbid anyone be forced to endure the torture that is 70 degree temperatures under party cloudy skies and fresh, clean, marine air. Oh, the horror! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Numerous? Maybe a few, but far more days in the 60s and 70s in the afternoon. At least for areas outside your little microclimate. It's been a warm, dry warm season so far. No way around that. Sure... above average and dry overall since mid April. Although SEA is running colder than normal for June at the half-way point. But our normal May and June weather can be annoying. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Oh hell yes. I’m doing everything in my power to will such a development into reality. Watching this place imlode would 100% be worth the price of me torching. God forbid anyone be forced to endure the torture that is 70*F highs under party cloudy skies and fresh, clean, marine air. Oh, the horror! You would hear not any complaints from me if next week was partly cloudy and in the 70s. You are creating a straw man to facilitate your venting about your own weather. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 15, 2018 Report Share Posted June 15, 2018 Looking a little bubbly over the mountains west of here. Pretty good vertical development on the clouds for this early in the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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