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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

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#1
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 May 2019 - 09:13 PM

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Will the Grand Floral Parade be a washout? Will Tim and Phil settle the score? Tune in to find out!
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 June 2019 - 07:05 AM

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Beautiful morning in the s valley. Still trying to cool the house off from the sun just blasting into it in the evening.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 June 2019 - 07:26 AM

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Ended May with 2 t'storm days (same with April). Marginally warmer than avg with a +1.0 degree mean. 2018 was either slightly warmer than that or the same, I'll do the numbers soon for last several May's I've experienced.


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (146%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 6
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/??
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 6 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#4
Deweydog

Posted 01 June 2019 - 07:50 AM

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It’s June 1st.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#5
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 June 2019 - 08:13 AM

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52 and cloudy here this morning. Looks like the marine push and onshore flow is supposed to be stronger Monday but the weekend looks nice!

#6
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 June 2019 - 08:22 AM

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Nice morning. Sunny and 65.

#7
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 June 2019 - 08:24 AM

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No marine layer this morning.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 13.08”, which is 5.21” below normal as of June 12


#8
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 June 2019 - 08:38 AM

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Cloudy this morning will the sun break through?

#9
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 08:47 AM

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A little marine layer here this morning. Nice. Low of 52.

#10
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 08:51 AM

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10-day precip total per the 12Z GFS is pretty pathetic.   

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_40.png



#11
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:37 AM

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10-day precip total per the 12Z GFS is pretty pathetic.

gfs_apcpn_nwus_40.png


Those Alberta fires might take a beatdown, though.
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#12
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:45 AM

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12z GFS ensembles seem to be hinting at the possibility of another wet pattern in the long range following the ridge following next week’s trough. As long as we keep things somewhat variable and don’t have a ridge lock over us for weeks on end it should be a nice summer.

Attached File  6B0CCDD8-E12A-40E4-860C-C46F8BC12712.png   26.22KB   0 downloads
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#13
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:45 AM

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Those Alberta fires might take a beatdown, though.

 

You would think.

 

But if -60 degrees and deep snow does not put those fires out... I doubt any amount of rain can either.



#14
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:48 AM

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12z GFS ensembles seem to be hinting at the possibility of another wet pattern in the long range following the ridge following next week’s trough. As long as we keep things somewhat variable and don’t have a ridge lock over us for weeks on end it should be a nice summer.

 

 

12Z GFS ensemble mean total precip anomaly through the first half of June...

 

gefs-tprecip-a-noram-65.png


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#15
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:50 AM

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12Z GFS ensemble total precip anomaly through the first half of June...


Yeah but I was talking about the ensembles.

I’d be very interested if anyone knows of another forum to track western weather.

#16
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:51 AM

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You would think.

But if -60 degrees and deep snow does not put those fires out... I doubt any amount of rain can either.


Well, if it’s really cold, the soil will be frozen and will have trouble absorbing any water. Rain might be more effective at increasing the fuel moisture itself.
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#17
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:51 AM

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Yeah but I was talking about the ensembles.

I’d be very interested if anyone knows of another forum to track western weather.

 

 

That is the ensemble mean.    Just pointing out that it does not look wet at all.    I want some rain too. 

 

And per your graph... there are only 3 members that even show rain in the long range.



#18
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:54 AM

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That is the ensemble mean.    Just pointing out that it does not look wet at all.    I want some rain too. 
 
And even per your graph... there are only 3 members that even show rain in the long range.


Fox 12 blog keeps looking better and better these days.

#19
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:56 AM

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I said hinting at the possibility. That is all. Can’t make a simple comment here without the forum bully/watch dog trying to start a war over it. Being away from this place for awhile makes me kinda realize what a drain it can be.

#20
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:56 AM

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Fox 12 blog keeps looking better and better these days.


Yeah... I personally created that precip anomaly map from the 12Z GFS ensemble mean just to get you.

#21
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:57 AM

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12z GFS ensembles seem to be hinting at the possibility of another wet pattern in the long range following the ridge following next week’s trough. As long as we keep things somewhat variable and don’t have a ridge lock over us for weeks on end it should be a nice summer.
attachicon.gif6B0CCDD8-E12A-40E4-860C-C46F8BC12712.png


Past 240 hours. I’ll believe it when I see it.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 13.08”, which is 5.21” below normal as of June 12


#22
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:57 AM

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I said hinting at the possibility. That is all. Can’t make a simple comment here without the forum bully/watch dog trying to start a war over it. Being away from this place for awhile makes me kinda realize what a drain it can be.


You are making it a war. Not me.

#23
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:59 AM

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Yeah... I personally created that precip anomaly map from the 12Z GFS ensemble mean just to get you.


No, but you posted it to. You have single handedly destroyed any fun in posting here for those who do not adhere to your preferences. And you are ALWAYS online and ready to pounce. It’s just a drag anymore.

#24
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:59 AM

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I didn’t realize western Canada could be so wet during the warm season.

Just as wet there as it is here according to the GEFS. That’s shocking considering how much less precipitable water is in the atmosphere up there.

mJApsFM.png

#25
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:03 AM

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I didn’t realize western Canada could be so wet during the warm season.

Just as wet there as it is here according to the GEFS. That’s shocking considering how much less precipitable water is in the atmosphere up there.


There is a fairly large body of water to their west. I think this is typically the wet season up that way as the jet stream retreats northward.

#26
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:04 AM

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No, but you posted it to. You have single handedly destroyed any fun in posting here for those who do not adhere to your preferences. And you are ALWAYS online and ready to pounce. It’s just a drag anymore.

 

 

You were talking about the 12Z GFS ensembles.

 

If that map showed wetter than normal and I said the anomaly map agrees then you would have liked the post and said nothing.    So your responses to my posts seem to be entirely related to whether they support your preferences.     And not just looking at actual model data.    



#27
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:06 AM

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There is a fairly large body of water to their west. I think this is typically the wet season up that way as the jet stream retreats northward.


But look at how much less the precipitable water values are vs the “wet” areas of the southeast. Must be the lower heights/less capping or topographic enhancement?

A9XQfv0.gif

#28
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:08 AM

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But look at how much less the precipitable water values are vs the “wet” areas of the southeast. Must be the lower heights/less capping or topographic enhancement?
 

 

I assume its related to topography and troughing and not precipitable water.   You can get copious rain in your area with much higher heights.



#29
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:08 AM

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You were talking about the 12Z GFS ensembles.

If that map showed wetter than normal and I said the anomaly map agrees then you would have liked the post and said nothing. So your responses to my posts seems to be entirely related to whether they support your preferences. And not just looking at actual model data.


You know exactly what you’re doing, and I gave you the response you wanted so you could play the “just reporting facts! 🥺” card. It’s always the same old song and dance. You have already succeeded in chasing Jim off with a similar schtick. My guess is your instinct is to just keep hen pecking until all the cold freaks here are gone.

#30
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:11 AM

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I didn’t realize western Canada could be so wet during the warm season.

Just as wet there as it is here according to the GEFS. That’s shocking considering how much less precipitable water is in the atmosphere up there.

mJApsFM.png

It’s the start of the rainy season in the lower elevations of a good portion of the BC interior. Not sure about Alberta, I don’t know there climate as well.
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#31
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:13 AM

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You know exactly what you’re doing, and I gave you the response you wanted so you could play the “just reporting facts! ” card. It’s always the same old song and dance. You have already succeeded in chasing Jim off with a similar schtick. My guess is your instinct is to just keep hen pecking until all the cold freaks here are gone.

 

Wow.   Paranoid.   

 

I can't help you there.   I don't control the weather or the models.   And I have no problem posting model data for weather that is not in line with my preferences.   The actual weather will determine my enjoyment.   

 

If you were always telling me it was going to be cold and wet all the time just to get to me... it would lose its punch really fast unless the actual weather follows suit.   I am not here to pimp warm and dry and then be wrong all the time when it constantly ends up cold and wet.    I just want to know what will be happening.   



#32
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:18 AM

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Wow. Paranoid.

I can't help you there. I don't control the weather or the models. And I have no problem posting model data for weather that is not in line with my preferences. The actual weather will determine my enjoyment.

If you were always telling me it was going to be cold and wet all the time just to get to me... it would lose its punch really fast unless the actual weather follows suit. I am not here to pimp warm and dry and then be wrong all the time when it constantly ends up cold and wet. I just want to know what will be happening.


You sure have done a good job convincing yourself of your own objectivity. :lol:

#33
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:23 AM

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You sure have done a good job convincing yourself of your own objectivity. :lol:

I don't really care. If I am not objective then I will always be wrong about it being warm and dry. And nature will always correct me with a cold and wet reality. And I will correct accordingly.

I have no problem pointing out cold and wet patterns. I do it all the time when it happens or is clear it will be happening.

You just want no dissenting opinions or data. Again... I just want to know what will actually happen.

#34
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:27 AM

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You just want no dissenting opinions or data.


No, that would actually be you. All I said was that there were small hints of another wet pattern, and you couldn’t leave it alone. Obviously the 12z operational and ensembles were titillatingly dry.

#35
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:29 AM

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No, that would actually be you. All I said was that there were hints of another wet pattern. Obviously the 12z operational and ensembles were titillatingly dry.


I went there actually hoping it would be wet so I could agree with you in a post. I thought it might be. But that does not mean I should ignore that its actually really dry. That is just more information.

#36
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:32 AM

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Beautiful day... sunny and 67 now. Had a brief intrusion of fog around 8 a.m. but it evaporated quickly.

#37
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:33 AM

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I went there actually hoping it would be wet so I could agree with you in a post. I thought it might be. But that does not mean I should ignore that its actually really dry. That is just more information.


Information becomes a lot less informative when only one side of it is consistently presented. The fact that I can instantly tell how a suite of model runs trended simply based on if there were any new posts from you between 9-10 and/or 11-12 kinda says it all.
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#38
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:37 AM

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Information becomes a lot less informative when only one side of it is consistently presented. The fact that I can instantly tell how a suite of model runs trended simply based on if there were any new posts from you between 9-10 and/or 11-12 kinda says it all.

And that is still information regarding actual model data. I don't control it and don't want to be wrong or disappointed. I just want to know what will happen.

#39
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:40 AM

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And that is still information regarding actual model data. I don't control it and don't want to be wrong or disappointed. I just want to know what will happen.


Yes, opinions play absolutely no role in your constant, OCD-driven narrative here. :rolleyes:

#40
Geos

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:40 AM

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10-day precip total per the 12Z GFS is pretty pathetic.   

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_40.png

 

At least there's something...

 

Still cloudy here this morning after a low of 50*. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#41
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:47 AM

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Yes, opinions play absolutely no role in your constant, OCD-driven narrative here. :rolleyes:


Of course opinions play a role in almost all of our posts here. But I want to know the reality... and not just lie to myself. I might not post as much about cold and wet patterns but I am not going to sit here and say it will be warm and dry. Nature decides. Not me. If I am always wrong then you should take joy in my posts. But I am not... and that is the real problem.

#42
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:49 AM

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12Z ECMWF shows about .20 for Seattle and Portland through next Sunday. It has definitely been trending drier. I think the trough might end up being a little too deep for us again.

#43
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:53 AM

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Not only does the 12Z ECMWF only show a little rain... its also very ridgy in the 8-10 day period. It does not even look like a variable pattern at that point... there is no trough lurking to the west.

#44
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:57 AM

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At least there's something...

Still cloudy here this morning after a low of 50*.

Marine layer is just dissolving around Seattle now. Should be a beautiful afternoon.

Prom is today here... perfect day for pics.

#45
Geos

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:01 AM

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Marine layer is just dissolving around Seattle now. Should be a beautiful afternoon.

Prom is today here... perfect day for pics.

 

Yeah now it is turning out pretty nice. Up to 66*.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#46
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:06 AM

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Total precip over the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF... pretty dry even in my area now.

 

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-41-1.png



#47
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:08 AM

Jesse

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Not only does the 12Z ECMWF only show a little rain... its also very ridgy in the 8-10 day period. It does not even look like a variable pattern at that point... there is no trough lurking to the west.


Jesse’s dreams must die!!!! I will PAY for that variability post earlier.

I would not call days 8-10 “very ridgy” FWIW. Pretty flat pattern at 500mb. The trough doesn’t even fully move out until after day 9.

#48
Jginmartini

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:09 AM

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Will the Grand Floral Parade be a washout? Will Tim and Phil settle the score? Tune in to find out!


Sad the Rose festival wasn’t this past week. Oh well, what’s the Rose Festival without little moisture and temps on the chilly side. According to maps that have been posted doesn’t look too bad at this point though. Could be much worse!
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Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm DENIED!!!

#49
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:11 AM

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Jesse’s dreams must die!!!! I will PAY for that variability post earlier.

I would not call days 8-10 “very ridgy”. Pretty flat pattern at 500mb. The trough doesn’t even fully move out until after day 9.

 

 

Always about you.   I would have posted that even if you were still in the Alps somewhere.

 

And I have not seen a pattern like this yet this year.    It looks pretty ridgy to me.     No idea if it will verify.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png



#50
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:13 AM

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Sad the Rose festival wasn’t this past week. Oh well, what’s the Rose Festival without little moisture and temps on the chilly side. According to maps that have been posted doesn’t look too bad at this point though. Could be much worse!

 

 

12Z ECMWF shows some light showers next Saturday afternoon and highs in the upper 60s down there.   Not terrible... but not as good as today for sure.