California Drought-Weather Discussion

[Guest happ]

Los Angeles Times 09/24/14

 

Parched California expected to miss out on typical fall rains

 

Northern and Central California typically receive 30% to 40% of their precipitation over the next three months, but this year, forecasters say the upper two-thirds of the state can expect to miss out on much of that badly needed moisture.

The lack of significant rain will mean little relief for thousands of firefighters battling a series of destructive wildfires in Northern California, although a weather system is expected to bring some showers to the region later this week.

 

Related story: Forest Service thinks California's drought caused a massive mudslide

Tony Barboza

Jonathan Dove was patrolling Mt. Shasta on a clear, warm afternoon when a group of backpackers asked him if Mud Creek Canyon on the Northern California peak always flowed so heavily.

Jonathan Dove was patrolling Mt. Shasta on a clear, warm afternoon when a group of backpackers asked him if Mud Creek Canyon on the Northern California peak always flowed so heavily. ( Tony Barboza )

And even if an El Niño weather pattern does develop later this year, it is only expected to deliver below-median rainfall for Northern California, according to U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center.

Until then, Anthony Artusa, the meteorologist who created the outlook, described California's drought forecast for the next three months as persistent and intense.

 

1,000 more California wildfires than usual in 2014, and fire season just started

Prolonged drought has been a major factor behind the stubborn growth of wildfires that have pockmarked Northern and Central California. One of the largest, the King fire, has been burning in Eldorado National Forest in an area that was lush and unscorched for two decades — a possible reason why the fire has been moving so rapidly, officials say.

Some good news in the report: Drought conditions are expected to improve somewhat for the southern third of California.

The gloomy outlook comes as the drought's effects continue to become more stark across California, from severely depleted reservoirs to private wells running dry.

Conservation efforts statewide have taken on new vigor, with residents letting their lawns go brown to popular tourist attractions, like The Getty, draining their pools and other water features.

•  

In July, California reduced its water use by 7.5%, down more than 17 billion gallons from the same period last year, according to the state Water Resources Control Board.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I believe that this fall and winter will be wetter than the last two years, due to the extreme dryness of those last two years. It can't get much worse than what we have experienced lately. If we continue this ultra dry pattern for much longer, that means that there has been a drastic change in the atmospheric circulation pattern somewhere that is really unusual.

[Guest happ]

Good news from Phoenix but winter snow is vital for ending severe drought:

 

SUBSTANTIAL DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT THIS SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE REGION

Updated on Wednesday, September 24, 2014 - Mark O'Malley

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/pns/2014/September/Drought/drought.php

[Dan the Weatherman]

How are the drought conditions now?

In central and southern CA drought conditions remain the same, since we haven't had any rain so far this month. We haven't had any major dry offshore wind events as of yet, except in parts of the Bay Area, but I am sure that will happen over the next few weeks for the rest of the southern half of the state. Far northern CA received some significant rain in late September, providing some short-term relief, but only light rain has fallen there since, so there hasn't been much long-term improvement so far. What we really need are some heavy storms that produce ample snowfall in the Sierras to put a dent in this drought, but it is still a bit too early in the season for that just yet.

[Guest happ]

Pasadena and San Diego have recently imposed strict water rationing for yards; allowing only one day per week for watering of grass/ trees and only for 10 minutes at a time. 

[Guest happ]

I checked the report on Stage 2 water restrictions: Pasadena will allow only one day a week of watering but it doesn't give time limits. San Diego will allow 3 days a week but for only 7 minutes at a time.  These go into effect Nov 1 and reflect the 'cool season' months water rationing.  

[richard mann]

-
141129-1202 3-hrly satsfc na-ep.gif  ("Gif-loop".)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml
Analysis/Satellite Composite
(N Amer/Pacific)
 
.. cross-reference.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=47977  (post no. 782.)

[richard mann]

-

California Climate Station Precipitation Summary

 

Main stations, "Since most recent Midnight", July 1st to present, Last Year, Normals.

[richard mann]

Main "Monitor".

 

December 30, 2014

(Released Wednesday December 31, 2014)

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west

[richard mann]

http://www.proxigee.com/150130_wx_story_Sto.png
Here's a look at just how dry January has been so far this year. (Data through Jan 30)

 

Main "Monitor".

January 27, 2015
(Released Thursday, January 29, 2015)

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=68566

[richard mann]

-
http://www.proxigee.com/150210_wx_story_Sto-a_res_updates.png
 
The recent rains across Northern California continue to produce inflows into our larger reservoir systems. Here is a summary of where we are at now compared to the historical average storage for this time of year. For example; Shasta Lake now holds 73% of its historical average amount of water for the date. Currently the lake is at 51% of its total capacity. Hydrological data courtesy of the California Department of Water Resources.

[richard mann]

-
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sto

http://www.proxigee.com/make_img-redux.php.png

After a wet Dec. in northern California the precipitation has tapered off. Sacramento is on track for the driest Jan through Mar in its long history, going back to 1850. Other sites are topping out well within the top 5 driest Jan through Mar on their records. A chance of showers in the Redding area on Tue (the last day of the month) could change its ranking.

[BLI snowman]

Scintillating discussion!

[richard mann]

Scintillating discussion!

WTH's this supposed to have meant. ?

[FroYoBro]

Still a drought. Change it to 2015.