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2020-21 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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Was just doing some checking on ENSO, myself. Cannot help but notice that deepening of cold in 3.4 and shifting back to 1 coincides very well with the cold pool development over Canada snd the central US.

A lot could change, but this could time very well with a future dated cold frontal passage if my thoughts leading out 60-70 days hold true. Jackpot.

The whole SST map is in favor of hard nasty cold so I guess if it doesn't work out, I'll learn a new way to fail. Lol.

Early call, cold dry start with snow,

Mediocre January,

Winter onslaught from February out til April.

Going to be a rough and stormy fall.

I hope it’s stormy rain wise.

 

Edit: I meant for this fall. Need to get our soil moisture restored!

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Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happ

The sooner you realize the “scientists” are out for the same thing (money) the “oil execs” are, the sooner you’ll start to piece things together. And when you finally figure out which side lies more

Our little airport here in Marshall sits on a bit of a plateau and still hit 32F last Saturday morning. I'm pretty confident that low-lying areas were sub-freezing. I've been here 18 years now and can

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On 8/30/2020 at 4:59 PM, Sparky said:

I hope it’s stormy rain wise.

Well, if the "previews" are any indication of what content of the show is going to be this time, that August cold front has been a true harbinger every single time in my lifetime. 

Sometimes the arctic catalyst or component happens very very early.

Modified 09/09/2020

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The latest CanSIPS seasonal run clearly showing signs of a colder and more expansive La Nina across the equatorial PAC.  It is very interesting to say the least for many reasons near and far.  I posted trends for October and December.

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I wanna experience this year a classic snowstorm after "Thanksgiving", towards the very end of November. That should bold well for the Winter. Nothing sooner than that.

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I'm gone all summer and come back to yet another epic winter prediction. :rolleyes:

Meanwhile record heat and record low ice: https://www.noaa.gov/news/july-2020-was-record-hot-for-n-hemisphere-2nd-hottest-for-planet#:~:text=The%20July%202020%20global%20temperature,second%2Dhottest%20July%20on%20record.

 

I guess when that ice age predicted by so many deniers on here eventually comes than we won't have to look at these numbers anymore ammirite? :D

Isn't the planet supposed to be getting colder by now? I forget was that last year, this year....???

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:) Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). 

 

Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters.

 

Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts.

 

Cheers!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:) Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead).

 

Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters.

 

Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts.

 

Cheers!

Who's this guy? Crap, I missed you buddy. Glad you're back!

 

Gimme last year minus the 3 34 degree rainstorms and we in business. I think last year will be forgotten really quickly after this winter. A Niña that builds into and/or past November is a strong clue. A weak sum that doesn't penetrate the depths with IR for about 4 years. Add volcanism and wildfires and voila.

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:) Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). 

 

Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters.

 

Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts.

 

Cheers!

Jaster!  Glad to see ya back amigo!  I was worried about ya getting sick from COVID but sounds like your back in business.  Tis the season!  Looking forward to reading your input on here.

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I'm gone all summer and come back to yet another epic winter prediction. :rolleyes:

Meanwhile record heat and record low ice: https://www.noaa.gov/news/july-2020-was-record-hot-for-n-hemisphere-2nd-hottest-for-planet#:~:text=The%20July%202020%20global%20temperature,second%2Dhottest%20July%20on%20record.

 

I guess when that ice age predicted by so many deniers on here eventually comes than we won't have to look at these numbers anymore ammirite? :D

Isn't the planet supposed to be getting colder by now? I forget was that last year, this year....???

"Ice, Ice, baby"....Antarctic seems to be doing well...

 

https://electroverse.net/antarctic-sea-ice-extent-is-currently-233000-km2-above-the-1981-2010-average/

 

 

 

Early build up of Ice this year for the Arctic???  IMO, prob won't be a cold arctic this cold season compared to the previous seasons but cold enough to support ice growth.

 

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20200902.png

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Jaster! Glad to see ya back amigo! I was worried about ya getting sick from COVID but sounds like your back in business. Tis the season! Looking forward to reading your input on here.

Thanks buddy!

 

My comfy job was the only casualty of the C-19 scare/hype. Was kinda bitter about it so I had to step away for a while for my own sanity, lol.

 

Nice to see you've stayed the course in our subforum and have remained positive with all this. In one of life"s little irony's I am now on the front lines of the COVID vax production. At least for the time being while we wait for puremichigan's economic recovery and a position in my traditional field to open up.

 

On that Artic Sea Ice. I thought it would've been building the past winter with the PV staying over the pole and strong. But looks like it has been running on the low side the past year or more?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:) Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead).

 

Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters.

 

Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts.

 

Cheers!

He's back!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Thanks buddy!

 

My comfy job was the only casualty of the C-19 scare/hype. Was kinda bitter about it so I had to step away for a while for my own sanity, lol.

 

Nice to see you've stayed the course in our subforum and have remained positive with all this. In one of life"s little irony's I am now on the front lines of the COVID vax production. At least for the time being while we wait for puremichigan's economic recovery and a position in my traditional field to open up.

 

On that Artic Sea Ice. I thought it would've been building the past winter with the PV staying over the pole and strong. But looks like it has been running on the low side the past year or more?

Good to hear all is well.  As for me, I've been in Arizona for most of this year since Mar 1st right when the pandemic hit.  Won't complain bc it has been a nice experience spending the Spring and most of the Summer out here in the desert.  I think it really emphasized how much I like the wx back home and need to be in an environment where you have seasons.  I certainly couldn't live out here all year long.  It would bore the heck outta me!

 

Regarding the Sea Ice, IMO the reason why the volume was low last winter was due to the warm Bearing Sea and Barents Sea, however, sea ice thickness was apparently much deeper near the North American coasts due to the strong PV.  

 

May 1st 2020...it may be hard to read this chart but you can see the incredible thickness (4-5 meters thick) of the ice near the shores of the Northwestern Passages/Nanavut/Greenland.

 

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20200501.png

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Thanks buddy!

 

My comfy job was the only casualty of the C-19 scare/hype. Was kinda bitter about it so I had to step away for a while for my own sanity, lol.

 

Nice to see you've stayed the course in our subforum and have remained positive with all this. In one of life"s little irony's I am now on the front lines of the COVID vax production. At least for the time being while we wait for puremichigan's economic recovery and a position in my traditional field to open up.

 

On that Artic Sea Ice. I thought it would've been building the past winter with the PV staying over the pole and strong. But looks like it has been running on the low side the past year or more?

CTRL+V

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Taking a look at the JMA seasonal model (just one run) which has been suggesting a moderate La Nina , is showing a start to Winter we have been all been used to for the last several winter seasons...a WARM December!  Does that change as we get deeper into Winter???

 

@BenNoll commented on this...https://twitter.com/i/status/1301882709254443008

 

 

 

Winter 2020-21: a moderate ENSO signal (La Niña) should help with the general circulation models' predictability.

I think there is reason to be intrigued across the north, particularly the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes
 


Here's the JMA, which runs every 5 days out to 6 months!
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CPC boys seem to be thinking a similar tune as JB but they are a bit colder at this stage.  The storm coming next week certainly has that "look" of what may be a preview.

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Good to hear all is well.  As for me, I've been in Arizona for most of this year since Mar 1st right when the pandemic hit.  Won't complain bc it has been a nice experience spending the Spring and most of the Summer out here in the desert.  I think it really emphasized how much I like the wx back home and need to be in an environment where you have seasons.  I certainly couldn't live out here all year long.  It would bore the heck outta me!

 

Regarding the Sea Ice, IMO the reason why the volume was low last winter was due to the warm Bearing Sea and Barents Sea, however, sea ice thickness was apparently much deeper near the North American coasts due to the strong PV.  

 

May 1st 2020...it may be hard to read this chart but you can see the incredible thickness (4-5 meters thick) of the ice near the shores of the Northwestern Passages/Nanavut/Greenland.

 

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20200501.png

Wow, yeah. Talk about thick! Nice map just they got the colors bassackwards. Red (warm) should be THIN ice, lol and purple the thicker stuff. ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Who's this guy? Crap, I missed you buddy. Glad you're back!

 

Gimme last year minus the 3 34 degree rainstorms and we in business. I think last year will be forgotten really quickly after this winter. A Niña that builds into and/or past November is a strong clue. A weak sum that doesn't penetrate the depths with IR for about 4 years. Add volcanism and wildfires and voila.

Hey OKwx,

 

Nice to be missed. Hopefully you're channeling some real snowfall this winter. Sad to see you hang in there and then have the door constantly slammed in your face. 49F this morning and 48F yesterday morning. Certainly losing that endless summer feel up my way and I'm thankful for that fact. Let's hope this current 500mb/teleconnection combo is a theme going forward the next 6 months.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:) Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). 

 

Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters.

 

Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts.

 

Cheers!

Hey welcome back!!!

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:) Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). 

 

Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters.

 

Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts.

 

Cheers!

There he is!

 

Whats going on bud!

 

Are ya ready for this upcoming Winter?! ;)

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Good to hear all is well.  As for me, I've been in Arizona for most of this year since Mar 1st right when the pandemic hit.  Won't complain bc it has been a nice experience spending the Spring and most of the Summer out here in the desert.  I think it really emphasized how much I like the wx back home and need to be in an environment where you have seasons.  I certainly couldn't live out here all year long.  It would bore the heck outta me!

 

Regarding the Sea Ice, IMO the reason why the volume was low last winter was due to the warm Bearing Sea and Barents Sea, however, sea ice thickness was apparently much deeper near the North American coasts due to the strong PV.  

 

May 1st 2020...it may be hard to read this chart but you can see the incredible thickness (4-5 meters thick) of the ice near the shores of the Northwestern Passages/Nanavut/Greenland.

 

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20200501.png

Yeah because normally blue or darker colors are for colder, which is what ice is. Haha

 

Anyway, welcome back Jaster!

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We got our "front runner" at the end of July. Sometimes the cycles, whatever title we prefer, start from different places and at different times in different seasons. If Nina typically peaks in late Oct, vs Nino peaking in late Dec or January. You'd expect the 2 month change in an LRC type world or at least the reasoning would/should work out

Guess what I'm saying is if we wait til November for an LRC, it will already be in progress by then and likely already has tells indicating which way we're going. Generally speaking at least.

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So, the big clue coming out of the Euro seasonal is the blocking that is trending up across Canada and the Pole as we get closer in time.  The La Nina signal is growing colder and stronger across the central & eastern equatorial PAC.  October has come in much colder for the central/southern Plains and wetter.  November temp map looks skeptical and prob advertising a warm bias.  Look at the blow torch over the Pole/Archipelago and how does that translate to a warm CONUS???  Needless to say, these are positive signs for the new LRC.

 

 

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With all due respect to Euro, I don't think I've seen a recent seasonal map from them that hasn't been ridiculously globally warm.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Thanks everyone for the warm welcome back. Here's to hoping this is a winter where the actual results mirror our sub's expectations. I know those N and W of SMI have scored some big storms the last 2 winters. Forgive me if I'm cheering on a shift eastward hahaha

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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With all due respect to Euro, I don't think I've seen a recent seasonal map from them that hasn't been ridiculously globally warm.

Euro enjoys a couple weaknesses and seasonal seems to one of 'em

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I know we don't get tons of snowfall in SMI and by comparison it's a lot less of a "sure thing", but I wish GRR and DTX did a snow page for their CWA's just like Gaylord does. I see it's been re-set and ready for the new season. How soon will it begin, that is the question. Up there, a good season can start in October and NOT, I repeat NOT be a harbinger of disaster, lol. Just see 1995 for a really good example. I imagine 1976-77 and 1989-90 would be a couple more that started early and went big.

 

NWS Gaylord Snow Page 2020-09-06.PNG

Edited by jaster220
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Vacationed up in Benzie County twice over the summer and one evening I left the motel and found dinner "to go" in a neighboring village of Honor, MI. It'a a tiny burg right along the Platte River valley and they have a little pub/restaurant with that north woods decor and coziness of knotty pine paneling that was typical in cottages back in the day when "up north" cottages were spartan by today's standards. My parents had one on Lake Huron from 1954 to 1965. 

That little NW corner of the Mitt did really well back in winter of 2013-14. One nearby city reported a peak depth of 57" OTG! The infamous "snowed-under" scene from the NBC studio is not too far northeast of there. As I was waiting for my (very tasty) order to come up, I couldn't help but think how deep a winter wonderland scene that main street and pub must've been during that epic winter.

Platte River Inn.PNG

20140129 TC NBC-TV Sta.jpg

Honor MI at the blue X.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Vacationed up in Benzie County twice over the summer and one evening I left the motel and found dinner "to go" in a neighboring village of Honor, MI. It'a a tiny burg right along the Platte River valley and they have a little pub/restaurant with that north woods decor and coziness of knotty pine paneling that was typical in cottages back in the day when "up north" cottages were spartan by today's standards. My parents had one on Lake Huron from 1954 to 1965. 

That little NW corner of the Mitt did really well back in winter of 2013-14. One nearby city reported a peak depth of 57" OTG! The infamous "snowed-under" scene from the NBC studio is not too far northeast of there. As I was waiting for my (very tasty) order to come up, I couldn't help but think how deep a winter wonderland scene that main street and pub must've been during that epic winter.

Platte River Inn.PNG

20140129 TC NBC-TV Sta.jpg

Honor MI at the blue X.PNG

Incredible Winter! Hopefully we can encounter a Winter like that soon. I remember having snow otg from late Nov thru late April and still having some snow patches right in to mid to late May (mostly in pkg-lots ). That Winter ,I did not see grass for months and months. It was about breaking records that Winter, from all time record snowfall, to record cold to record low high and etc and etc. I even broke a record for the amount of snow I had otg. Epic Winter!

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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I know we don't get tons of snowfall in SMI and by comparison it's a lot less of a "sure thing", but I wish GRR and DTX did a snow page for their CWA's just like Gaylord does. I see it's been re-set and ready for the new season. How soon will it begin, that is the question. Up there, a good season can start in October and NOT, I repeat NOT be a harbinger of disaster, lol. Just see 1995 for a really good example. I imagine 1976-77 and 1989-90 would be a couple more that started early and went big.

 

NWS Gaylord Snow Page 2020-09-06.PNG

Yes I agree it would be nice to have that for our area. Also I would like it if GRR had the top 20 like DTX has in their site.

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😁

1st one of these "snow" maps..so I'm putting it here. Has to be one of the earliest in memory

 

noaa d2 CONUS Wx.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Anxiously waiting for the next Winter outlook!⛷️

FWIW some on another forum have discussed how awesome 07-08 Nina was for this region and that it was a later peaking event as the current one should be. This was contrasted against 10-11 which peaked in autumn. I think you could argue both ended up treating ORD and DTW very well. I know OKwx would love a repeat of 10-11 down his way. And I'm not sure how far west either Nina delivered? I think eastern Iowa did ok but unfamiliar for points west tbh. I will add this personal observation. 08's big dog blizzard hit OH and GHD-1 while clipping west MI was centered on Chicago and points SW. Nice if we got one to split the difference from about my place over to yours, lol 😜

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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50 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

FWIW some on another forum have discussed how awesome 07-08 Nina was for this region and that it was a later peaking event as the current one should be. This was contrasted against 10-11 which peaked in autumn. I think you could argue both ended up treating ORD and DTW very well. I know OKwx would love a repeat of 10-11 down his way. And I'm not sure how far west either Nina delivered? I think eastern Iowa did ok but unfamiliar for points west tbh. I will add this personal observation. 08's big dog blizzard hit OH and GHD-1 while clipping west MI was centered on Chicago and points SW. Nice if we got one to split the difference from about my place over to yours, lol 😜

Sounds good to me! :D

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On 9/8/2020 at 7:46 PM, jaster220 said:

FWIW some on another forum have discussed how awesome 07-08 Nina was for this region and that it was a later peaking event as the current one should be. This was contrasted against 10-11 which peaked in autumn. I think you could argue both ended up treating ORD and DTW very well. I know OKwx would love a repeat of 10-11 down his way. And I'm not sure how far west either Nina delivered? I think eastern Iowa did ok but unfamiliar for points west tbh. I will add this personal observation. 08's big dog blizzard hit OH and GHD-1 while clipping west MI was centered on Chicago and points SW. Nice if we got one to split the difference from about my place over to yours, lol 😜

‘07-‘08 winter was the snowiest on record for parts of eastern Iowa if I remember the record part correctly. At least it was the snowiest of my 30 yrs. of record keeping, but that amount would be nothing huge for you Michiganders.

Edited by Sparky
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7 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

@Tom, what I referenced above about the LRC did not pertain to you and it sounded awful. Took it down. The LRC is a valuable tool and what I do is similar in a lot of ways. Sorry.

No worries my friend...I understood what you were trying to say...

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I promised to post on the latest JMA seasonal so here we go...

The common denominator for the month of October has been for a SW ridge in practically all the modeling which leads to continued dryness in that region along with California.  A wet signal for the GL's and PAC NW which certainly leans towards a typical La Nina pattern.  The models are also seeing a trough near Alaska and its not surprising as this part of the world gets cold real fast in La Nina winters.  Lay down the foundation as they say.

 

October...

Y202009.D0300_gl0.png


Temps...very warm out west and parts of the Upper MW/Plains, seasonal farther east..

 

Y202009.D0300_gl2.png

 

November...looks pretty warm overall and I remember Autumn of 2007 was warm, at times, very warm...Indian Summer???  Wet signal for both the PAC NW and GL's continues.

 

Y202009.D0300_gl0.png

Temps...warm in the SW/Plains/GL's..

 

Y202009.D0300_gl2.png

 

December...here is when it could start getting rather fun and exciting bc it would go against what a lot of the most recent warm Decembers have been like.  I hope its right.  It looks to deliver the goods with an active northern stream and cold air in place.  Nearly everyone on here is AN in the precip category.

Y202009.D0300_gl0.png

 

Temps...cold for the Upper MW/GL's/MW, warm SW...

 

Y202009.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

With all of this in mind, check out the moderate to potentially borderline Strong Nina that could be brewing...interesting to say the least...

Oct-Dec blend...

 

Y202009.D0300_gls.png

 

 

 

1.png

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Here's another long lead forecast that also illustrates a SW/W coast ridge, high lat blocking and Greenland blocking for the Autumn months...

 

cahgt_anom.0.png

 

Temp...

cat2m_anom.0.png

caprec_anom.0.png

 

 

Winter...look at that "hook over the top"...that would bring down some serious cold...

cahgt_anom.3.png

 


Temp...

 

cat2m_anom.3.png

caprec_anom.3.png

 

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There are hints of weak to moderate La Nina for the upcoming winter season. Some recent weak La Nina winters are 2017/18. 2016/17. 2008/09. 2005/06. 2000/01. And some recent moderate ones 2011/12. 1995/96 1970/71. That would be a good start for this winters analogs if you are inclined to want a winter long range guess. 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The SST subsurface animation across the equatorial is quite impressively cold...no wonder the climate models are trending towards a stronger La Nina...

 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

Weekly Sea Surface Temperatures anomalies

Some recent strong La Nina winters. 2010/11. 2007/08. 1999/00. 1998/99. 1999/89. Note there has been a big range with how past La Nina winters have played out.

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This is a copy of a La Nina report I made for a local weather blog here in west Michigan. All snowfall and temperature reports are for Grand Rapids.

I know it is only early September but every year there is always speculation on what the coming winter will be like. It always makes we wonder how some people think they can tell what a 90 day period of weather will be like 3 to 6 months in advance (unless you are taking about a location where the weather is very stable) but for us living about half way between the north pole and the equator, will that is a different story. Now for the upcoming winter seasons there are some hints that we could have a condition call La Nina and there are many who think that a El Nino brings a warm dry winter and a La Nina brings a cold and snowy winter well this week I will look at past known La Nina years and see how that winter season ended up.  According to Stormfax where they have a list of El Nino and La Nina years going back to 1900. While the list on https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm starts at 1950.

I have broke down the La Nana history into two parts. From 1900 to 1950 and 1951 to 2020. For each La Nana winter I have listed the total snow fall for that winter and then the average mean temperature for that winter season. Note all reading are for Grand Rapids  La Nana winters 1900 to 1950. The Stormfax listed La Nana winters start with 1903/04 that winter Grand Rapids reported 77.8” of snow fall and the mean that winter was a cold 18.2°. 1906/07 snowfall 30.1” mean winter temperature 24.7° 1908/09 34.4” mean temp 27.8° 1916/17 snow fall 52.2 mean temp 21.8° 1920/21 snow fall 35.6 mean temp 30.9° 1924/25 snow 40.7” temp 24.7. 1928/29 snow fall 55.4” mean temp 23.7. During the warm years of the 1930’s 1931/32 snow fall 41.1” mean temp 33.9. 1938/39 snow fall 65.7 mean temp 28.7. 1942/43 snow fall 64.1 temp 22.9. Recap of the 1900 to 1950 La Nina winters. According to Stormfax there were 10 winters with La Nina winters. The mean temperature of all winters between 1900 to 1950 was 25.6 and the average snow fall was 52.8” during the La Nina winters the mean was 25.7° the mean ranged from a cold winter in 1903/04(18.2) to a very mild winter in 1931(30.9).   The average snow fall was 50.1” and ranged from 77.8” in 1903/04 to just 30.1” in 1906/07. Note that total snow fall was less for all winters in that time so the way it was measured might not have been the same as today.

For the la Nina winters from 1951 to 2020. During this time there is information as to how strong the La Nina was so now there is the added item of if it was a weak, moderate, or strong La Nina. The first La Nina winter it this period was in 1954/55 that was weak La Nina the mean temperature that winter was 25.9° and there was 68.8” of snow fall. The next La Nina winter was 1964/65 that was a weak one and the mean temperature was 24.1 and there was 101.4” of snow fall. The 1970/71 event was a moderate one and that winter the mean was 22.7 and there was 101.0” of snow fall.  The 1973/74 was the first strong event and the mean temperature that winter was 24.3 and there was 64.4” of snow fall. The next event in 1975/76 also was strong and that winter the mean was 25.7 and there was 69.2” of snow fall. The 1988/89 was the last in the string of strong La Nina’s and that winter the mean was 25.9 and there was 62.2” of snow fall. The 1995/96 event was moderate and that winter the mean was 23.5 and there was 98.4” of snow fall. The 1998/99 event was strong and that winter the mean was 28.6 and 76.7” of snow fell. The 2007/08 event was strong and that winter the mean was 26.0 and Grand Rapids reported 107.0” of snow fall. The 2010/11 event was strong and that winter the mean was 25.2 and there was 74.0” of snow fall. The 2011/12 event was reported as moderate and that winter the mean was a very warm 32.2 and just 51.1” of snow fell. The 2016/17 and the 2017/18 events were reported as weak. In 2016/17 the mean temp was a mild 30.4 and the snow fall was just 60.1” and in the last La Nina the mean was 26.2 and 77.7” of snow fell.

In the last 70 years there were a reported 14 La Nina events and the mean temperature of the 14 events was 24.3 the mean total snow fall was 76.2”  There was a range in temperature from 22.7 to 32.2 and a range of snow fall from 51.2 to 107.0. The mean of all of the years from 1950 to 2020 for the winter season is 26.4 and for snow fall it is 75.8”  So yes on average there is a chance of a La Nina winter to be colder than average and maybe a little more snow fall. But there is no guarantee.

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