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28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I noticed WxBell's analog list for this 1st year Nina included 73-74. In looking at that winter for snowstorms, I was surprised to see that there was a Big Dog storm just (4) days before Christmas that season. Growing up not too far east of KFNT (Flint, MI) indeed their records indicate a 9.5" total that took the depth to a very surprising 13" (T-6" was the Christmas Day norm during my youth). So why didn't I remember a Christmas day with such an impressive snow cover? I was 9 yrs old and certainly should easily stand out in my memory. Digging a little deeper revealed that the old "Nina volatility" was to blame. Similar to 07-08 when snow was plentiful, but melted just as fast as it came. The 8" the morning of 12-25-73 was the deepest of my youth there, but a high of 48F reduced the depth to a tragic 1" by the next morning! Christmas '73 must've been a forgettable slop-fest outside as I enjoyed inside whatever Santa had left under the tree that morning. Even more disgusting was LaFayette, IN which had scored 17.4" and a depth of 19" also found themselves with 1" on the morning of "Boxing Day". Beware the "come and go" nature of the Nina's. Not to mention that in all my snowstorm hunting, snow cover retention seems to be the most difficult winter facet to achieve in this region. I would say, that any time SMI can get a solid 8 weeks of cold and enduring ground cover, that's a memorable season. (outside of the LES belts anyway). Snow did return that January and a snapshot on 1-12-74 shows a nice swath of decent depth across this sub.

 

 

 

1973-12-21 Snow Depth.PNG

1973-12-25 Snow Depth.PNG

1974-01-12 Snow Depth.PNG

If we do those maps, I'll be taking a leave of absence until April. I won't have anything beneficial to say to another human until then. Lol.

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23 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If we do those maps, I'll be taking a leave of absence until April. I won't have anything beneficial to say to another human until then. Lol.

I hear ya. It does seem like the cold wants to dive deeper south so far and with 10-11 being "double weighted" you should remain positive buddy. The main reason I chose to write about 73-74 is that pre-Christmas Big Dogs are such a rarity for S. Lakes that it really caught my eye.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If we do those maps, I'll be taking a leave of absence until April. I won't have anything beneficial to say to another human until then. Lol.

I mean, I love people and whatnot, but being close enough to get the chill, fog and smell off a snowpack like that is getting to be heartbreaking after 4 seasons of it.

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18 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

Let's be honest here, the doom and gloom forecasts he made never came to fruition.  Obviously, the comment "no snow will fall" is an exaggeration and should not be taken verbatim.  The way Al Gore implemented his beliefs did push the theory that less snow would fall, but in fact, the numbers are trending the other way and the Northern Hemisphere is seeing more snow falling out of the sky.  That's all my post was intended to say.  Hope this clears it up.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Let's be honest here, the doom and gloom forecasts he made never came to fruition.  Obviously, the comment "no snow will fall" is an exaggeration and should not be taken verbatim.  The way Al Gore implemented his beliefs did push the theory that less snow would fall, but in fact, the numbers are trending the other way and the Northern Hemisphere is seeing more snow falling out of the sky.  That's all my post was intended to say.  Hope this clears it up.

He was a politician. That should say it all.

That being said, otherwise things definitely are going great on the planet.🙄

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On 10/31/2020 at 1:24 PM, Niko said:

Anxiously waiting for the "November Winter Outlooks" to come out......

This one's from mid-October, but I like their analogs. Can we just run with that snowfall graphic? LOL

Edit-and yes, I cherry pick these!

 

20201011 NEOweather winter outlook analogs.PNG

20201011 NEOweather winter outlook.PNG

Edited by jaster220
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I mean, regardless of "warm earth era", for us here in SMI can it really get much worse than last winter??

 

2019-20 DJF Temp departures.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Speaking of the 1976 cold autumn and record N. Hemisphere snow cover. That following winter gets knocked as not very snowy due to the lack of major hits here. The primary storm track stayed just south of the Mitt (similar to the recent merger rainstorm). But I looked at KBTL's data and beginning November 29th there was 1"+ snow cover for 93 consecutive days and 100+ over the entire season. Depth peaked at a respectable 16" and double digits OTG were seen in both Jan and Feb. So if you like sustained winter, that was a winner in my book. There was ofc the late Jan LES bliz that featured knarly cold and wind-driven snows even if new totals weren't too big outside the "belts" of WMI. And needless to say, the historic cold made it a great winter for ice fisherman, skating rinks, making snow at ski resorts, etc. At my age I'm not a huge fan of endless chill, but I'd take that versus the last few winters around here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Speaking of the 1976 cold autumn and record N. Hemisphere snow cover. That following winter gets knocked as not very snowy due to the lack of major hits here. The primary storm track stayed just south of the Mitt (similar to the recent merger rainstorm). But I looked at KBTL's data and beginning November 29th there was 1"+ snow cover for 93 consecutive days and 100+ over the entire season. Depth peaked at a respectable 16" and double digits OTG were seen in both Jan and Feb. So if you like sustained winter, that was a winner in my book. There was ofc the late Jan LES bliz that featured knarly cold and wind-driven snows even if new totals weren't too big outside the "belts" of WMI. And needless to say, the historic cold made it a great winter for ice fisherman, skating rinks, making snow at ski resorts, etc. At my age I'm not a huge fan of endless chill, but I'd take that versus the last few winters around here.

Co-sign!  As you said, anything beats last winter and pretty much the past several when speaking in terms of sustained cold.  The early Feb snow blitz in '18 was fun but then the snow cover was wiped out by a mega torch the following week.  I'd be content with a fast start and have it snow throughout the holidays with somewhat of a pullback in Jan.  If we see anything close to a normal winter around here it's going to look and feel a lot better than what we have been used to.  Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out.  I'm being cautiously optimistic about this season and how this year's LRC is setting up along with the Blocking signals.  The big wild card will be the PV and its impact IMHO.

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Last Winter in NWOH was stupid lol

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

This one's from mid-October, but I like their analogs. Can we just run with that snowfall graphic? LOL

Edit-and yes, I cherry pick these!

 

20201011 NEOweather winter outlook analogs.PNG

20201011 NEOweather winter outlook.PNG

I'll take a repeat of 2010-11.  It was a back loaded winter here that produced a 26' blizzard at the end of Feb and over 54 in of snow that season which is almost 3x average.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Co-sign!  As you said, anything beats last winter and pretty much the past several when speaking in terms of sustained cold.  The early Feb snow blitz in '18 was fun but then the snow cover was wiped out by a mega torch the following week.  I'd be content with a fast start and have it snow throughout the holidays with somewhat of a pullback in Jan.  If we see anything close to a normal winter around here it's going to look and feel a lot better than what we have been used to.  Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out.  I'm being cautiously optimistic about this season and how this year's LRC is setting up along with the Blocking signals.  The big wild card will be the PV and its impact IMHO.

The lack of storm systems so far in this years LRC is concerning, not just for this Winter but esp next summer.  I like the blocking looks also and there looks to be some good shots of cold but the long dry spells could be trouble.  We need a parade of storms soon as we are in week 4 of this pattern so we still have some time.

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11 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Last Winter in NWOH was stupid lol

You call that "winter"??

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 hours ago, Niko said:

Thanks for sharing that bud!

One more thing I liked about their video. They began with showing exactly how badly they busted on last winter's "weak El Nino" forecast, which ofc had the GL's region as most likely to be COLD!! Since that was itself an epic FAIL, I feel like the debt owed for the 09-10 moderate Nino that was actually snowy and cold when it shouldn't have been, has now been paid. I'd spent the last decade wondering how/when exactly that would happen...and then we got last winter. Question answered.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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23 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I mean, regardless of "warm earth era", for us here in SMI can it really get much worse than last winter??

 

2019-20 DJF Temp departures.PNG

It could be your fifth one in a row. Lol. Sorry, I couldn't resist. You asked.😁

That's nasty stuff. Its time to erase the warm era. If not for good yet, maybe for a year or 2. The good ol days, you know? I remember the good ones and I miss them.

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The Good, The Bad, The Ugly....well, it appears the writing is on the wall right now that November will likely end up being a warm, to very warm month for the eastern CONUS.  Based on my research, I do NOT expect to see any periods of long duration cold outbreaks after a brief blimp next week for our Sub.  The 10mb/30mb clues I use are starting to look on point and all the LR modeling is veering away from any colder looks, esp the CFSv2 of late.  Last nights Euro Weeklies basically are in line with the idea that the N PAC jet will be raging into the west coast of North America.   

 

So, the Good???  A very active wave train is poised to develop and provide a ton of moisture to the drought stricken west and into the Plains.  The Bad???  Snow lovers will have to wait till prob mid December.  The Ugly???  The Polar vortex looks to strengthen in the long term and high lat blocking is disappearing.  Is the theme of warm Decembers coming into fruition???  I believe so.  "Flip the script of 2020" doesn't look like it will show up in December.  It also doesn't look like a fast start to Winter this year.  Another Back loaded Winter???  Yes, it does have a higher probability of doing just that but we may not have to wait til mid/late Jan.  In fact, it could come just in time for the Holidays in December and New Year's....I'm still trying to figure out when, not if, but when the blocking and PV start to come into play.

 

Euro Weeklies Thanksgiving 500mb forecast below...roasting Turkey's outside this year???

1.png

 

 

CFSv2 agrees....

 

wk3.wk4_20201102.z500.png

 

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

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Welp. That was fun while it lasted. A one day taste of winter then the reversal. Anyone else get a "banned" message on their pc for this site. Phone is working only attm..hmmm

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It's almost as if the call by scientists that the Solar Minimum will be overpowered by the current global warming is coming to fruition.🤔

#Science

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/#:~:text=The warming caused by the,temperatures would continue to warm.

These volatile extremes were talked about as a "future trend" 25 years ago. I wasn't a fan then and I'm certainly not today. Oh well, extended motoring season for my other hobby. 70F and low sun angle is really top shelf stuff tbh

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Doesn't really issue a classic snowfall graphic but this is a nicely done outlook. His focus is the I-95 major cities which he does give specific totals for. Covers high-lat blocking thoughts and the solar min analogs look interesting too.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm going to post some maps from the latest Euro seasonal and go over what they are showing.  First off, I do NOT believe it's Nov forecast as it is likely to warm for the southern tier of our Sub and likely to dry for the central states.

November...

1.png

2.png

 

In December, it's starting to see the Greenland Block that I believe has a good shot at popping this winter.  Does it happen in December??  That's a good question.  What signals are out there that could support such a pattern in the N Atlantic???  Well, I go to my 10mb/30mb maps to see if there is any warming ongoing in that part of the world.  In fact, there is...in recent days, a blossoming warm pool has been forming and I'd like to see if this is a brief blip or something more longer duration and scale...

The last few frames may be advertising a chance for blocking to develop near Greenland and Scandinavia late November into December. If both of these potential blocks can lock, the December outlook will look different.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

3.png

Could you see that much warmth in North America???? I think not....Euro drinking to much of its warm bias....no chance it's that warm, esp with a warm pocket in NE Canada.  Western Canada is likely to be frigid based on the overall pattern that is setting up now and will last well into early Spring, IMHO.

 

4.png

5.png

 

 

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Yeah, Euro weeklies are absolutely garbage. Learned that last month.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Let's just keep this week's pattern and winter can stay away. Maybe try again next year, lol. This is the kind of wx I remember from 2010 and was hoping for.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm beginning to see signs of  HOPE once we turn the calendar into December, but I want to see some more data come in by later this weekend.  The northern half of our Sub into the eastern part should keep an eye on the blocking pattern that is showing some early signs of development right around Thanksgiving week into December across Hudson Bay/Greenland.  I'll dive into this signal a few days.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm beginning to see signs of  HOPE once we turn the calendar into December, but I want to see some more data come in by later this weekend.  The northern half of our Sub into the eastern part should keep an eye on the blocking pattern that is showing some early signs of development right around Thanksgiving week into December across Hudson Bay/Greenland.  I'll dive into this signal a few days.

GFS flashing a heck of a storm in the 22nd-25th.  The GFS has been good but that's a long ways out.

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

GFS flashing a heck of a storm in the 22nd-25th.  The GFS has been good but that's a long ways out.

Helps if you mention which run of the GFS since it can change drastically with the very next run, lol.

Holiday lights are being strung-n-hung here in town and were already on display in downtown Holland this evening. And it's also the season for long-range GFS fantasy storms. They're the best!

 

20201110 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_fh336-366.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Helps if you mention which run of the GFS since it can change drastically with the very next run, lol.

Holiday lights are being strung-n-hung here in town and were already on display in downtown Holland this evening. And it's also the season for long-range GFS fantasy storms. They're the best!

 

20201110 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_fh336-366.gif

Which is why nobody should trust GFS outside of 10 days lol

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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45 minutes ago, Clinton said:

By long range standards the GFS has been exceptional this year even out beyond 10 days.  It may not stay that way but it seems to have a good grip on things.

It becomes a completely different model after 10 days. In terms of its accuracy, a broken clock is always right twice a day. 

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

So you're saying there's a chance. Lol.

Do you know the last official white Christmas in your region (1" OTG at 7 am Dec 25th)?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I recorded 0.09" of rain fall here overnight. At this time it is cloudy and 39. The temperature has been slowly falling since I woke up so this could be another day where the high was reached before sun rise if that is the case the high for today will be 43. There have been several days this fall when that has happened already. While this happens a lot in the winter it is more uncommon in the other seasons.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Just for fun....Here's an interesting write up from Accuweather stating a higher probability of a white Christmas this year for some around these parts. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/why-are-forecasters-encouraging-decorating-for-winter-holidays-early-this-year/847174

Thanks Tom, and this one's hiding in there as well:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/45th-anniversary-of-the-edmund-fitzgerald-disaster/846814

Quote

Post-analysis weather research showed that the strong low-pressure system caused winds of 55 mph that produced waves of over 25 feet that night, at the location where the ship went down. That's about as big as waves theoretically can get on the lake, according to the NWS, though the SECC disagrees. In any case, there could be rogue waves twice that height, and it's not out of the question that one of those could have sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald. 

That'd be an incredible 5-story high wave. Can you imagine seeing that coming at you?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that im sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

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10 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that im sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

Welcome to the subforum! The general guidance for a WSW is 6+", though you live in a CWA that notoriously hates issuing warnings. 

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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14 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that im sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

Welcome aboard!  You got a couple members that live in Michigan on here and one guy by the name of @Jaster who lives in Kalazoo also!  Our guy @WestMJim is from the Grand Rapids area and will always post stats and historical data.  Finally, you have @Nikowho is just north of Detroit.  There is another member north of Niko but I forgot his name.  Anyhow, regarding your question about Winter headlines here is a link you can use:

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/winter_defs#:~:text=For watches and warnings%3A&text=Visibility frequently below 1%2F4,for 3 hours or longer.

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34 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that im sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

Welcome to the board!

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

Welcome aboard!  You got a couple members that live in Michigan on here and one guy by the name of @Jaster who lives in Kalazoo also!  Our guy @WestMJim is from the Grand Rapids area and will always post stats and historical data.  Finally, you have @Nikowho is just north of Detroit.  There is another member north of Niko but I forgot his name.  Anyhow, regarding your question about Winter headlines here is a link you can use:

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/winter_defs#:~:text=For watches and warnings%3A&text=Visibility frequently below 1%2F4,for 3 hours or longer.

I appreciate the warm welcomes! Thanks, will check this out. It's in my blood to refrain from getting too excited, but I'd be lying if I said I haven't caught myself wishing for some legit flakes soon. That dusting on the 1st was a nice lil treat. 

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1 minute ago, whatitdo said:

I appreciate the warm welcomes! Thanks, will check this out. It's in my blood to refrain from getting too excited, but I'd be lying if I said I haven't caught myself wishing for some legit flakes soon. That dusting on the 1st was a nice lil treat. 

You may have picked the right year to make the move up north!  If you like snow, the GL's is a fun place to live.  Recent years haven't been to kind in the lower lakes but I suspect this season will be a lot better.  Anything is better than a snow-less winter, right??

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37 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

I appreciate the warm welcomes! Thanks, will check this out. It's in my blood to refrain from getting too excited, but I'd be lying if I said I haven't caught myself wishing for some legit flakes soon. That dusting on the 1st was a nice lil treat. 

Welcome to SWMI. You now reside in one of the best weather zones in lower Michigan for all 4 seasons, but especially winter. As mentioned by FAR_Wx, our regional NWS office is uber-conservative with storm headlines. Just last week MSP had a warning for 4-7" which shocked me personally since we no longer get a warning for such amounts, no matter how hard-hitting it is. I remember when 4-8" events were always watch/warn scenarios. Nowadays, if it's not a guaranteed double digit event, you will see a WWA hoisted 2 days ahead of time with no adjustments. A touch of sarc in there, but not far off the truth.

On the positive side, in a good winter you will see huge storms, frequent snows via LES, not too bitter of temps, and potentially deep, deep snow cover. 24"+ snow depth has happened many winters in Kzoo. Get ready!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that im sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

Welcome to the board but more importantly welcome to Michigan! Looking forward to your thoughts on your first Michigan winter. I split my time between our house which is about 20 miles due west of Port Huron in the “thumb” and our cabin which is about 30 miles due south of Gaylord in northern lower Michigan. You’re going to hear lots of explanations of how our state is described by like the UP and up north and the thumb and snow belts, lots more but any questions ask away, again welcome!

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