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3-29 to 3-31 No Joke About It Big Dog


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It's going to end March with a BANG! Big storm system for the Entire Plains & Midwest to end March, with Severe Storms in the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley, Rain/Snow in the Great Plains, Midwest, & eventually mostly rain in the Northeast.

Then, a Secondary system arrives in the Southern Plains to start April, & when that system exits into the Mid-Atlantic on the first Sunday of April, a 3rd system comes into the Southern Plains at the same time.

A favorable Rinse & Repeat I guess. :lol:

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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@Madtown @Beltrami Island...0z Euro suggesting a Beast and potential Blitz conditions up near the Northwoods....what a season...this would put an exclamation point on your season!  

1.png

 

I'm going to be paying attn to this one a bit more closely....this MAR has been quite a doozy and quite "fitting" to end it with a BANG...

0z GFS...

snku_acc.us_nc.png

 

 

0z Canadien...

snku_acc.us_nc.png

 

Woah, looking deeper into the overnight data, the 0z EPS is showing more wrap around snows over the Plains.... 

2.png

3.png

 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This storm will be a big severe weather producer across the south and the same areas that were hit last week.

day4prob.gif

Impressive day 5 outlook

day5prob.gif

Don't be surprised to see a D3 Enhanced risk in Oklahoma & Texas tomorrow, the D4 Slight risk is very broad.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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No comment.

  • Snow 1

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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6 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Well.... Dont get much better than this!Screenshot_20220326-135116_DuckDuckGo.thumb.jpg.17a8fedfdb3fe7de893a9a8d6865edab.jpg

I think this one has just you written all over it. I'm thinking a rainstorm for me followed by 2" of slop on the back end.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Canadian continues to be among the more snowy solutions even though it delays the changeover from rain to snow until Wednesday evening, later than other models. These higher totals for N Plains/SD are mainly due to a deformation-like band setting up behind the low as it departs to the east that allows for heavier precip than what other models are picking up on.

At least in PNW weather patterns, the Canadian often times had a propensity to model the advection of more precip into the region than what actually ended up occuring. Not sure if it exhibits that same behavior over the central CONUS or not but could be a case of that happening again as most models show limited precip on the NW/backside of the low. 

gem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-8782000.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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The trend is not great for Nebraska and Iowa.  Models are mostly keeping the heavy rain and storms east and south of Iowa, and then the strong low doesn't wrap up until it's mostly northeast of Iowa.

image.thumb.png.7dee6f441fdc2f12da5ec1dd31e485e0.png

image.thumb.png.467162f80d71183641b25c1d09ce2bd0.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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D3 Broad Slight Risk in place from the Southern Plains to the Midwest827656905_BroadSlightRisk.gif.e3d0ed52b94ada83b6ca582e77bc99e7.gif

But D4 O_O
Yikes.gif.4954a3be59027a6bb40cc083bdd88fae.gif

Very Strong wording from the SPC

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on
   Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging
   winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado
   outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the
   region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an
   increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level
   winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential
   for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold
   front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details,
   particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River
   Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning
   for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing
   segments where modest destabilization does occur. The
   most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most
   probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
   Alabama. 

And finally, a Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather potential on D5
877253110_Mid-AtlanticD5SevereWeather.gif.96476aabd50cd5f18e37dc8a07697de0.gif

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Canadian continues to be among the more snowy solutions even though it delays the changeover from rain to snow until Wednesday evening, later than other models. These higher totals for N Plains/SD are mainly due to a deformation-like band setting up behind the low as it departs to the east that allows for heavier precip than what other models are picking up on.

At least in PNW weather patterns, the Canadian often times had a propensity to model the advection of more precip into the region than what actually ended up occuring. Not sure if it exhibits that same behavior over the central CONUS or not but could be a case of that happening again as most models show limited precip on the NW/backside of the low. 

gem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-8782000.png

I will sell my kidneys if temps aloft are this cold. 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Models are not on the same page with regard to the complex interaction between the multiple pieces of energy.  The Euro is shifting east and northeast because it digs the Canadian energy southward farther east (or even much farther east) than other models.  Now the Euro doesn't even really spin up the main low until it gets into Canada.  Most of Iowa gets almost nothing.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Oh baby!!   
Storms  AND a Kidney Auction!!! 
Things are picking up ! 🤠👍

8C1A58E3-B640-4652-9EBE-C29DD47A4754.gif

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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GFS has really cut back on any meaningful precip or snow accumulations for SE SD. System forms, weakens over the Rockies, then re-forms east of us over the GL with not much to write home about in between. Seems awfully familiar to the last storm which looked like something nice in the medium range but quickly fell apart as it got closer. Lame.

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS has really cut back on any meaningful precip or snow accumulations for SE SD. System forms, weakens over the Rockies, then re-forms east of us over the GL with not much to write home about in between. Seems awfully familiar to the last storm which looked like something nice in the medium range but quickly fell apart as it got closer. Lame.

Storms busting isn’t solely a PNW phenomenon. 😬 

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0z Euro is pretty much lining up with most of the CAM's and showing a very long line of storms stretching all the way down from @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance up near @Clinton and the Lower Lakes region...

1.png

 

3.png

 

 

The wintry part of the system is trending away from anything of significance except for the snowbelt region near the U.P.

2.png

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2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The SPC is strongly thinking that the storms that are expected for my area are likely to go linear very quickly

Straight-line winds could get severe for your area...do you live out in the open areas of OKC???

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Wow. Here we go.  
 

High of 86 will definitely drive these storms here. This feels more like early May storms.  Grass still brown though.  
 

Is it just me or is it acting a little premature weather wise?  🤔

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro is pretty much lining up with most of the CAM's and showing a very long line of storms stretching all the way down from @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance up near @Clinton and the Lower Lakes region...

1.png

 

3.png

 

 

The wintry part of the system is trending away from anything of significance except for the snowbelt region near the U.P.

2.png

Strong straight line winds and hail look to be the primary threats for mby.  Storms look to move in after dark and another good soaker looks to be on the way with 1-2 inches possible.  The GFS has a sharp western edge more like a snow storm. 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Straight-line winds could get severe for your area...do you live out in the open areas of OKC???

I live ~35 Miles SE of OKC

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

Wow. Here we go.  
 

High of 86 will definitely drive these storms here. This feels more like early May storms.  Grass still brown though.  
 

Is it just me or is it acting a little premature weather wise?  🤔

Down south, yea…that’s the way I’ve been looking at it…it really started in the opening days of March across the MW with a major severe wx outbreak.  That was rather unusual.  The tornadoes in IA and then into IL/WI/IN was pretty early to say the least, plus the strength of the storms raised some eye brows.

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Tonight and next 2 days we have elevated risk for severe storms.  
it was 94* yesterday and mid 80’s today and tomorrow. Very dry.  
 

Wild fires west of Ft Worth out to Abilene.  This past few days saw over 100,000 acres burned.  

It’s dangerous out there.  
Rain over the next few days will help but we need a good deal more. 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/tracking-weekend-wildfires-across-texas/2925834/

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well the snow chances have pretty much faded into oblivion but it does look like we might have some thunderstorms to contend with. 12z NAM is showing 700-800 jules of CAPE Tuesday evening over far SE SD and 1500-1600 jules not too far away over NW IA. 

Not sure when the typical thunderstorm season starts around these parts (May/June?) but would be nice to get something interesting out of this storm so I'm crossing my fingers.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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34 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well the snow chances have pretty much faded into oblivion but it does look like we might have some thunderstorms to contend with. 12z NAM is showing 700-800 jules of CAPE Tuesday evening over far SE SD and 1500-1600 jules not too far away over NW IA. 

Not sure when the typical thunderstorm season starts around these parts (May/June?) but would be nice to get something interesting out of this storm so I'm crossing my fingers.

Another nothingburger around here.  This is getting pretty serious to keep missing out on storms and moisture.  My father in law is 76 years old, and told me yesterday he only remembers one other year in this area where things were as dry as they are now.  Usually yards are starting to green up a little by now, but everything is an ugly brown.  

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS with a snowier solution on the NW side of the storm.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_c.png

That's nice to see. Actually shows 4-5 inches here between the Tues/Wed system and the Friday PM/Saturday AM system. Hopefully other models will start picking up on that increased precip on the NW side of the low too. The Canadian was initially showing quite a bit to work with, then pulled back. But looks like 12z run is a bit better too.

Sounds like most people on this side of the forum are ready for spring but I'm still itching for some more snow. The extent of winter in the PNW this year was one week of snow/cold centered around Christmas. While the timing was nice, it left much to be desired. It would be nice to score a decent coating here before moving further into spring. 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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The GFS and, especially, the Canadian are trying to wrap up the system more over Iowa.  The UK and Euro are not buying that at all.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MPX must have a good AFD cooking seeing as they still haven't posted their afternoon one.

 

Unless they pull an OAX where they wait until 23Z then it just ends up being something stupid like "snow is possible".

  • lol 3

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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MPX:

Quote
KEY MESSAGES:

- Large system to bring a variety of precipitation types Tuesday
  night into Thursday.

- A degree or two difference could result in more substantial ice
  accumulation across central MN and northwest WI Tuesday night.

Thick cirrus overhead has halted warming this afternoon. Increasing
low level moisture has resulted in humidities stabilizing and thus
has reduced the elevated fire weather threat.

The moisture advection will continue into midweek as the trough
across the western U.S. advances east. Isentropic upglide-induced
precipitation will break out Tuesday afternoon and intensify Tuesday
night. Dry, easterly low level flow will keep surface dew points in
the teens across WI and lower 20s across central MN during the onset
of the precipitation. The intensifying precipitation should cause
surface temps to wetbulb down into the lower 30s Tuesday evening in
those areas, resulting in a freezing rain threat. The amount of
potential ice accumulation is highly dependent on surface wetbulb
temperatures, and only 1 or 2F could mean significantly different
outcomes. HREF has a large area of a tenth of an inch of ice across
central MN and WC/NW WI. However, temperatures only slightly below
freezing aren`t efficient in ice production so unless it`s even
colder, say the upper 20s, then only minor ice accumulation should be
expected. A further increase in moisture late should bring
temperatures above freezing by Wednesday morning, ending any ice
threat.

Precipitation type across western MN is equally as uncertain
Wednesday with the lack of consistent ice aloft per forecast
soundings. Heavier bursts of precipition could be in the form of
snow, but absent any convective lift into the drier DGZ, it may be
more of a drizzle/light rain scenario with temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s.

Perhaps the biggest uncertainty comes Wednesday night with the
trailing piece of energy. Model consistency on this feature remains
poor, but there is some signal for a band of snow setting up from
southern MN to western and central WI. This band may be steady enough
to generate accumulation, but at this point amounts would probably be
light given the marginal boundary layer temperatures.

Dry weather returns Thursday, but a compact shortwave heading east
across the Upper Midwest Friday night and Saturday will bring our
next chance for rain and snow. A modest warming trend may arrive
early next week, but no big warm ups are foreseen yet.

 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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It's mostly a rainer here, even on cold NAM (which has me at 32, so still liquid). 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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