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3-29 to 3-31 No Joke About It Big Dog


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Dew point earlier this morning was only 18 degrees. Now it’s 48 degrees. Quite the increase in moisture, but not enough for any surface based convection or tornadoes here.

There’s a severe t storm watch for possible large hail but as of now we might be missed to the northwest.

4DD5B422-362B-46F7-88B4-33F4DB6EA7B2.jpeg

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

 

There’s a severe t storm watch for possible large hail but as of now we might be missed to the northwest.

 

Big nothing fest 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trajectory is looking good for those storms moving out of NE to hit the Sioux Falls area. 🤞

Not enough instability. Already looks like they're weakening and just turning into normal rain showers as they approach the Missouri River.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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14 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

Not enough instability. Already looks like they're weakening and just turning into normal rain showers as they approach the Missouri River.

I don't think you realize how low my bar is. 

I have already seen more lightning tonight than I had seen in years in the PNW. My family and I drove down a dirt farm road, parked, and just watched the lightning roll in with no trees, no mountains, nothing blocking our view. So. Freaking. Cool.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

I don't think you realize how low my bar is. 

I have already seen more lightning tonight than I had seen in years in the PNW. My family and I drove down a dirt farm road, parked, and just watched the lightning roll in with no trees, no mountains, nothing blocking our view. So. Freaking. Cool.

Lol, true I guess. We just went through the same stuff with Timmy.

Having lived in the Plains for a few years, you'll get your shot come May and June. Climo just doesn't quite support severe wx up here yet.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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My friend says there is heavy sleet in St. Cloud currently. 

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Big storms with heavy rain here in lawrence for the last 45 minutes. Have a storm made River in the backyard thanks to the storms training 

Radar looks like this could turn into a flooding event for your area not much of a push east with that line.

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

A pair of tornado warning north of KC. One looks to effect the St. Joe area.

image.png.c845697e88e81ff68417019f164d7f9c.png

Did that break the streak of seeing a TOR warning near the KC metro?  Iirc, there was one issued this year already...can't remember...

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All the models are suggesting the deeper secondary surface low getting its act together near OKC to track right over or near MBY.  Quite a soaker heading our way up here as a corridor of heavy RN is now pretty much a lock.  Looking forward to some drenching, thundery downpours this afternoon.  

1.gif

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_18.png

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

0z Euro...boy, were the models way off just a few days ago showing the heavy snow band a lot farther NW...

1.png

 

2.png

 

 

Some of the models suggesting the SLP to deepen into the low 980's....I wonder if it has a chance to hit the 970's...tracking the SLP will be interesting today...

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Did that break the streak of seeing a TOR warning near the KC metro?  Iirc, there was one issued this year already...can't remember...

I live in St Joe and moved here in August, 2020. We've had 3 Tornado Warnings since then. 2 were radar indicated rotation, 1 was an actual touchdown about 5 miles from town in October of last year! Not sure about KC.  The ones last night were north of the city

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Did that break the streak of seeing a TOR warning near the KC metro?  Iirc, there was one issued this year already...can't remember...

2 counties on the Kansas side haven't had a tornado watch in over 2 years, that streak is still going. 

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Getting a rain-sleet cocktail currently. Trees are icy. 32°F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Andie How did you do overall down there?  Looks like Ft Worth a good dose of thundery rains down there...

Some heavy fast moving rain, maybe 1/2”, but really nothing to get worked up about.  
They were running around like their hair was on fire but just a line of heavy rain in places.  

Real “fireworks” was nonstop high winds ahead of it. Straight line winds hitting 40 mph all day into early evening. Maddening. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Clint in Oklahoma had some action with a tornado warning south of him.  Far NE Texas has severe storm warnings last night but actually, they missed this one generally.  
We’ll see what developed as it romps across the country. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Changed over to heavy wet snow here. 32°F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I had a really close call last night to a Tornado Warned Mesocyclone that cleared my house by less than 1 mile, I was woken up to it at 11:38 PM by my Grandmother, & she told me that this used to be "Just another storm with a LOT of Lightning, then the wind picked up & it was strange."

No Tornado Touched down thankfully, but someone told me (On a different forum) that it got really close with a radar-indicated Funnel, but it was Rain-Wrapped.

I went back to sleep at around 12:20 AM when everything cleared out

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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I received 0.40" of rain overnight, pretty close to the model avg.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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0.0" here.  Just comical at this point.  The Low went right over Central Nebraska and basically dry slotted us.  One thing we have plenty of is wind.  I'm sure the drought monitor will continue to worsen.  Local news says from Nov. 1 - Mar. 29 is the driest stretch ever in Central Nebraska with records going back 127 years.  This would include Dust Bowl years.  Not good for anyone in the nation if this continues.

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The HRRR really shows snow picking up in Iowa around midnight or just prior.  Then really picking up in southern Wisconsin a few hours later.  I'm showing 10:1 to illustrate areas that may see snow, but of course these accumulations won't materialize in most areas due to warm ground and marginal temps, but nonetheless a decent part of the area should see flakes overnight.  

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

This could get fun later tonight into the wee hours of the morning tomorrow...

1.gif

 

SLP will be knocking on my doorstep....literally right over ORD

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_23.png

12Z NAM and GFS more robust with the snow potential. Interesting possibilities with this one showing up.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Just outside Ely,MN. Looks like the dead of winter.

http://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=59f9f3266234d

That's north of Copper Harbor, D**n near in Canada, lol. Not too surprising really. I remember April of 2013 (iirc) the UP getting so many snowstorms it looked like a warm season would never happen.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Models have really trended east with the development of the second low.  The best moisture goes up through Illinois and Wisconsin, with only light stuff back in Iowa.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That's north of Copper Harbor, D**n near in Canada, lol. Not too surprising really. I remember April of 2013 (iirc) the UP getting so many snowstorms it looked like a warm season would never happen.

Heck, I am 50 miles further north latitude than Ely, and I can see Canada.  Yes 2013 was one of the latest springs I can remember, 2014 was right on its heals.  For that Ely cam to truly look like a good midwinter scene, the snow would need to be nearly up to the thermometer.   

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Mayfield was near 2 TOR's. They've probably been on edge after the other tornado.

KPAH_loop (2).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 23
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Much to my surprise, this morning's white gold actually stuck around all day. View from my street  33°F.

20220330_195659.jpg

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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The HRRR has steadily shifted tonight's snow southward to the southern half of Iowa.

At this late point in the season any snow could easily be the last, so I will have to wake up at 4am to see it.

image.thumb.png.82239d6755700b782cbc176cbb9512a4.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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