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April 27th- May 9th | Tornado Outbreak Sequence


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The models are going crazy with the next system, the thermodynamics are very favorable for Supercells in Oklahoma, Kansas, & maybe Nebraska, the WPC is saying that a good portion of Nebraska will get over an inch of rain.

 

The CIPS analogs are suggesting that the highest instability is in Central Oklahoma (Of course)

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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The models are going bonkers with this storm system and I love tracking these slow moving bowling balls.  Man, you gotta hand it up to mother nature bc when the blocking up in the arctic sets up it really delivers the goods for our Sub.

 

@Clinton, what is Gary thinking for the summer season?  Good amount of rain?  I think so.  Should be a good growing season, but I'm more worried about W TX up through W KS/CO.  This area will see storms, esp when the Monsoon kicks in July/Aug.  It should be a banner year for the SW...I'm really interested to see how that develops later in the Summer.

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

The models are going bonkers with this storm system and I love tracking these slow moving bowling balls.  Man, you gotta hand it up to mother nature bc when the blocking up in the arctic sets up it really delivers the goods for our Sub.

 

@Clinton, what is Gary thinking for the summer season?  Good amount of rain?  I think so.  Should be a good growing season, but I'm more worried about W TX up through W KS/CO.  This area will see storms, esp when the Monsoon kicks in July/Aug.  It should be a banner year for the SW...I'm really interested to see how that develops later in the Summer.

I haven't heard his summer forecast if he gave it I missed it.  I know he thinks May will be well above average rainfall.

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That’s fine with me. We got a good rain.    
We’ll drop down to 50* tonight and it’s April 25th!  😳

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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13 minutes ago, Andie said:

That’s fine with me. We got a good rain.    
We’ll drop down to 50* tonight and it’s April 25th!  😳

Down to 42°F for OKC expected tonight.

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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The risk area for Friday has been expanded.  Our area has been quiet on the severe front the last few years it may be about to get going.

image.png.08f62951edeb37f0e02e25ea7199218e.png

   An upper trough will extend from the northern Intermountain region
   to the southern Rockies Friday morning. The strongest mid/upper flow
   associated with trough is expected to be on the back side of the
   wave as it slides eastward into the Plains. With time, a closed
   upper low is forecast to develop over the northern/central Plains,
   though forecast guidance varies on when/where the closed low
   evolves. This is resulting in some uncertainty as this will impact
   where strong large-scale ascent is focus, as well as where stronger
   vertical shear will be located.

   Nevertheless, a favorable low-level pattern will emerge across the
   central/southern Plains as a lee cyclone deepens and shifts east
   across western KS, with another low developing along the NE/SD
   border. A surface dryline will extend southward from central KS into
   central TX by 00z. Ahead of the dryline, mid 60s F dewpoints will be
   in place as far north as central KS, with low 60s F dewpoints
   extending into eastern NE. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse
   rates will support moderate destabilization. Given uncertainty in
   where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, thunderstorm
   coverage remains uncertain. But, at least isolated supercells are
   expected across eastern/central KS/OK and perhaps north Texas. All
   severe hazards will be possible with these storms.

   Further north toward northeast KS and eastern NE, a cold front will
   surge east/southeast during the late afternoon/evening while a warm
   front resides across the lower MO Valley. Additional convection is
   expected to develop near the surface low and along the warm front in
   strong warm advection from eastern NE into western MO. Storm mode
   may quickly become messy in this regime, but potential for all
   severe hazards may exist.
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5 hours ago, Tom said:

I thought this was a fun run off last nights 0z GFS...."Choo-Choo!"  #wavetrain...follow the leader...

image.gif

"Fun run" from sunny AZ. This can stay away from mby. Sure don't need the moisture and dbl don't need more cloudy days. Got those coming out our tailpipe so far this spring.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Day 6. LOL @ hour 6 I'd be worried

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 27th- May 4th(?) | Severe Weather sequence very possible

Right now, local forecasts call for 70-80% chance of rain and thunderstorms Friday, Friday night, into Saturday morning.  We host our annual high school track meet beginning at 1 PM Friday.  Would hate to see another meet cancelled, as three so far have been lost to wind and dust.  I don't think there would be too many complaints if we get rain Friday.

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Friday continues to o look more interesting.  

image.png.6e2afcb275d377079a7fe144ae580ece.png

NE/KS into the Lower MO Valley...

   Forecast guidance indicates a strong midlevel cap will erode by late
   afternoon amid increasing ascent and low-level moist advection.
   Backed low-level winds near the triple point will result in enlarged
   low-level hodographs with forecast effective shear magnitudes around
   35-45 kt. Backed low-level flow will also enhance low-level shear,
   with SRH values increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2. This will be
   favorable for rotating supercells, and a few tornadoes are possible.
   Very steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg will
   support large to very large hail. Initial supercell activity may
   eventually grow into clusters as the cold front surges east during
   the evening, resulting in a potential transition toward damaging
   gusts and hail as convection spreads east/northeast into parts of
   the MO Valley

  

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The Euro trends towards the GFS and the wave train "Choo Choo" appears to be tracking smack dab across the central ag belt.  You can thank the blocking....the heavens will open up...

0z Euro next 10 days...

1.png

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

The Euro trends towards the GFS and the wave train "Choo Choo" appears to be tracking smack dab across the central ag belt.  You can thank the blocking....the heavens will open up...

0z Euro next 10 days...

1.png

GFS agrees the middle of the country is about to become a lake.

image.thumb.png.05db009c4ac90cafc64d7ddc41a879cd.png

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS still looks good for Nebraska over the next 7 days.  Best part is that it doesn't all come at one time.  The ground should be able to take most of it.

image.thumb.png.c2f1410ca48db3cdf8ffaf3c5d70985c.png

Wow.  That would be tremendous. Our church has continued prayer vigils for rain.  Hallelujah.

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12Z HRRR shows storms forming over/near Omaha this evening and lasting for several hours. In fact it shows nearly 7" of rainfall in northern Douglas County (where I live) under the "O" and the "M" on the map.

Maybe some good lightning picture opportunities as I am floating away to the Missouri River.....

qpf_acc.us_state_ne.png

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I'll be out chasing tomorrow. Still not totally sold on a big day, but any day chasing is better than a day working.

I'm feeling lucky and am tentatively planning on chasing the dry line down into Kansas vs staying closer to home near the warm front. Storms are more likely up here but feel they will get messy right away. Hoping something pops the cap down south and is isolated and puts on a great show out in the fields of Kansas.

Then on my way home I will probably run into the squall line that will form along the crashing cold front, so maybe some good nighttime lightning opportunities.

 

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10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'll be out chasing tomorrow. Still not totally sold on a big day, but any day chasing is better than a day working.

I'm feeling lucky and am tentatively planning on chasing the dry line down into Kansas vs staying closer to home near the warm front. Storms are more likely up here but feel they will get messy right away. Hoping something pops the cap down south and is isolated and puts on a great show out in the fields of Kansas.

Then on my way home I will probably run into the squall line that will form along the crashing cold front, so maybe some good nighttime lightning opportunities.

 

I'm worried the cap may keep storms from forming until after dark in Kansas.  If they pop earlier the Topeka down to Wichita area will be explosive. 

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19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm worried the cap may keep storms from forming until after dark in Kansas.  If they pop earlier the Topeka down to Wichita area will be explosive. 

Also factor Oklahoma, one Mesoscale model had a Supercell over the OKC Metro

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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32 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It appears that May 2nd could become another big one, GEFS is trending upwards.

It looks good for Oklahoma City to have some big storms then especially if the timing can hold.  Looks like a lot of rain up my way with that storm.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

It looks good for Oklahoma City to have some big storms then especially if the timing can hold.  Looks like a lot of rain up my way with that storm.

I'm going to be in Orlando when that happens, but never worry! I'll be watching from afar!

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I'm worried the cap may keep storms from forming until after dark in Kansas.  If they pop earlier the Topeka down to Wichita area will be explosive. 

SPC almost seems certain the cap will break but I don’t like seeing pretty much none of the models having any storms along the dry line

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3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

20 miles south of me in Alma. 2” hail and torrential downpours. I’m getting some nice rain here as things keep developing. Very thankful for the moisture 

It appears that the Convective Feedback did the trick for Holdridge to get rainfall.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’ve had some little pingers of hail, but nothing too bad. Nice showers keep developing and moving through. We actually have puddles. Honestly, we haven’t had this since October. Probably 0.25” so far as it continues. 

I did not see any puddles from Summer 2021 to April 2022, I was excited to see them again!

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It appears that the Convective Feedback did the trick for Holdridge to get rainfall.

You are 100% correct. Our HS soccer team was hosting their final regular season game, and it looks like lightning and heavy rain will end the game at halftime, according to my son who was watching it and now he is running to his vehicle. 

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2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The sky to the south of me is black. 

Could you take a Picture of the Supercell or a video of the lightning inside of it?

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 27th- May 9th | Tornado Outbreak Sequence
  • hawkstwelve unpinned this topic

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