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April 27th- May 9th | Tornado Outbreak Sequence


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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is too far south now, and other storms are now moving through obscuring a good picture. 

Makes sense now that the others are obscuring it from a good view.

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Here is the best I can do from my front porch. Another cell is just coming through. What an evening.5A66ACE2-70F4-41C7-B5AC-2A8525E620D7.thumb.jpeg.ef23040f87130c678a1e749862b6004d.jpegE45994B6-7680-43C7-B2CA-382D1109F082.thumb.jpeg.3f63c619506d13e7e282322f1f1b39d0.jpeg9ED73657-5040-466F-934A-BC67AE1BBE09.thumb.jpeg.18eba38a0b4fd796141a7fc9e00cb4ca.jpeg

That thing looks mean even from that distance, I've also noticed the amount of Green Grass that is popping up as well.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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27 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

That thing looks mean even from that distance, I've also noticed the amount of Green Grass that is popping up as well.

Some yards are starting to look good. Mine has a ways to go with some yellow still showing up. The next week looks to really green things up. Some trees are also just starting to bud out. Probably will be a couple more weeks at least to see all trees leaf out. Behind the averages. 

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KLNK has already picked up 0.67". Just <0.05" and a lightning show in SE Lincoln. We'll see if the stuff to the NW is far enough east in a couple hours. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The enhanced risk area for today was expanded further east.  A tornado outbreak after dark for Kansas, Oklahoma and possibly southern Nebraska is possible.   Not a fan of this don't want anyone to get hurt.  For mby a squall line with strong winds looks likely. 

image.png.ae17a87d56b89a5f6320430958086ec7.png

   Early this morning, slow-moving MCS has propagated into southeast NE
   with scattered convection trailing west, just north of the KS
   border. This activity is expected to gradually wane/shift east by
   daybreak. Stronger-forced convection is now responding to the short
   wave over the NE Panhandle and this activity should gradually spread
   east through late morning. Latest thinking is low-level moisture
   should hold across southern NE, just north of the surface low as
   easterly boundary-layer component in the wake of the ongoing MCS
   will persist across this region. With upper 50s/lower 60s surface
   dew points expected into portions of northwest KS, supercells should
   readily develop ahead of the approaching short wave by early
   afternoon. An expanding corridor of scattered supercells should
   spread along the NE/KS border within a strongly sheared environment
   characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings
   strongly suggest very large hail, in excess of 3 inches may be noted
   within this steep lapse-rate environment. Additionally, a few
   tornadoes appear likely with this activity, possibly even a strong
   tornado.

   Farther south along the dryline, intense surface heating should lead
   to minimal CINH by 21z and isolated supercells are expected to
   develop across KS into northern OK where mid-level height falls are
   expected. Models continue to suggest low-mid 60s surface dew points
   will be noted immediately ahead of the dryline which will result in
   a narrow corridor of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. While model guidance produces
   minimal/no precipitation along the dryline south of I40 over OK into
   TX, low-level convergence along the boundary may prove adequate for
   sustained updrafts at lower latitudes. This portion of the outlook
   is highly conditional, but if storms develop they will be severe
   with very large hail (3-4 inch possible) along with a threat for
   tornadoes
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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The enhanced risk area for today was expanded further east.  A tornado outbreak after dark for Kansas, Oklahoma and possibly southern Nebraska is possible.   Not a fan of this don't want anyone to get hurt.  For mby a squall line with strong winds looks likely. 

image.png.ae17a87d56b89a5f6320430958086ec7.png

   Early this morning, slow-moving MCS has propagated into southeast NE
   with scattered convection trailing west, just north of the KS
   border. This activity is expected to gradually wane/shift east by
   daybreak. Stronger-forced convection is now responding to the short
   wave over the NE Panhandle and this activity should gradually spread
   east through late morning. Latest thinking is low-level moisture
   should hold across southern NE, just north of the surface low as
   easterly boundary-layer component in the wake of the ongoing MCS
   will persist across this region. With upper 50s/lower 60s surface
   dew points expected into portions of northwest KS, supercells should
   readily develop ahead of the approaching short wave by early
   afternoon. An expanding corridor of scattered supercells should
   spread along the NE/KS border within a strongly sheared environment
   characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings
   strongly suggest very large hail, in excess of 3 inches may be noted
   within this steep lapse-rate environment. Additionally, a few
   tornadoes appear likely with this activity, possibly even a strong
   tornado.

   Farther south along the dryline, intense surface heating should lead
   to minimal CINH by 21z and isolated supercells are expected to
   develop across KS into northern OK where mid-level height falls are
   expected. Models continue to suggest low-mid 60s surface dew points
   will be noted immediately ahead of the dryline which will result in
   a narrow corridor of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. While model guidance produces
   minimal/no precipitation along the dryline south of I40 over OK into
   TX, low-level convergence along the boundary may prove adequate for
   sustained updrafts at lower latitudes. This portion of the outlook
   is highly conditional, but if storms develop they will be severe
   with very large hail (3-4 inch possible) along with a threat for
   tornadoes

Yikes!  This could be a dangerous situation....buckle up, things are going to get real bumpy over the next 5-7 days! 

The storm setting up for Mon could be even worse across KS and has that signature of a barreling squall line.

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2.53" fell at LNK overnight, basically doubling the YTD total of 2.68". Yeah it's been dry lol. Lesser amounts in SE Lincoln, around 1" has fallen so far. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Moderate risk area now issued and enhanced area also pushed further east right up to my door step.

day1otlk_1300.gif

I’m concerned with the amount of cloud cover and morning storms that won’t make this evening activity not so active. We will see if we are able to clear out by noon 

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5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m concerned with the amount of cloud cover and morning storms that won’t make this evening activity not so active. We will see if we are able to clear out by noon 

Same, it's completely cloud-covered over I-40 near Okemah.

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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8 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m concerned with the amount of cloud cover and morning storms that won’t make this evening activity not so active. We will see if we are able to clear out by noon 

Looks like the cap is building in, still plenty of time to warm up.  This last line of storms coming through my area are strong.

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34 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m concerned with the amount of cloud cover and morning storms that won’t make this evening activity not so active. We will see if we are able to clear out by noon 

Sun is out here. Gonna be an interesting day for sure; I'm anxious to see if storms can stay discrete in my neck of the woods. 

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I'm fully in the cross hairs for significant severe weather later today, but I do think the most likely outcome for MBY is a severe wind and/or hail threat from a squall line in the 9 PM-1 AM time frame.

That said, the 12z FV3 does show a tornadic supercell moving through my area around 7 PM so I would be concerned about any discrete storms that form nearby primarily from 6-9 PM. Just something to keep an eye on.

If nothing else maybe I'll get my first tornado watch in almost three years.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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19 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Happy hunting! This afternoon and evening looks interesting... and this looks like the spot to be in. 

Not saying it's gonna happen but that cell matches up very well with where two of the strongest tornadoes happened in Nebraska history. Jim Flowers also showed a similar path in his video today with what was shown in the models. 

Screen Shot 2022-04-29 at 2.10.00 PM.png

mar13tors2.png

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Looks like Lincoln is going to be missed for the most part. Oh well, plenty to come within the next week.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Haven't been following the weather as closely lately because we bought a house a few days ago (woohoo!) and things are moving 100 mph but looks like severe weather is popping up in some places.

Praying for those in the path of this devastating tornado in KS.

 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 27th- May 5th(?) | Tornado Outbreak Sequence
6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Haven't been following the weather as closely lately because we bought a house a few days ago (woohoo!) and things are moving 100 mph but looks like severe weather is popping up in some places.

Praying for those in the path of this devastating tornado in KS.

 

Congrats on the purchase!  Hope you settle in nicely to your new pad.

That tornado was fierce...very photogenic...

FRjkRvRXoAEKJNA?format=jpg&name=medium

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeatherlooks like your area was smack dab in the defo band all night long and into this morning.  How much precip have you received so far?

Rained all night long. Looks like my gauge had 0.75” after midnight through 7 AM. Local media is saying 1.20” including the storm that hit at 5 pm yesterday. Awesome. Multiple large chances in the next week. Chipping away at this drought. Currently 44 with a chill of 30 and NW winds gusting over 40. 

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Currently east of Hamilton, AL on I-22

 

I wished I was still in Oklahoma for the Supercell action, but oh well . . . I'll have the Diurnal convection today in Alabama

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Currently east of Hamilton, AL on I-22

 

I wished I was still in Oklahoma for the Supercell action, but oh well . . . I'll have the Diurnal convection today in Alabama

Currently North of Montgomery on I-65 Lots of Thunderstorms to the south and east of Montgomery.

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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A thin, but heavy line just moved through Cedar Rapids and dropped a quick 0.35" here.  I had to rush to mow the lawn before it got here and I just barely made it.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just a wonderful soaking the past couple of days! My county was in a tornado warning last night as the squall line rolled through. I of course went out chasing and went too far west. I ended up being overtaken by the line and couldn't get back out in front. The shelf cloud was impressive but again I went too far west to watch it roll in! I received .90" on Thursday and 1.7" the past 48 hours so a total of 2.6. My lawn care business will be kicking into high gear as we roll into May! The gardening on the other hand will have to be delayed for a while.....

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Tragedy last night for 3 chasers. My biggest worry chasing is all the driving, never the storms.

I was nearly killed 4 years ago next Memorial Day driving home from a chase. A jackknifed semi was blocking all lanes on I80 in the dark and rain. I came up on it driving 75 mph and only saw it when my headlights shined on the overturned trailer. I slammed on the brakes, turned hard right and somehow managed to parallel the semi as I headed straight for the ditch. I missed a pedestrian from a pulled over car walking on the side of the road by maybe a foot and managed to keep the car under control as well. The shock to my body of having a near death experience kept my chest sore for 3 days.

Rest in peace to the young students.

https://okcfox.com/news/local/three-ou-meteorology-students-die-in-car-crash-near-kansas-border

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13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Tragedy last night for 3 chasers. My biggest worry chasing is all the driving, never the storms.

Ugh, they weren't even chasing at that point, just driving home, and hydroplaned into a freak accident.  🙁

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 27th- May 9th | Tornado Outbreak Sequence
  • hawkstwelve unpinned this topic

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