Nice day!*
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For my area we are under the slight for today. We will have an initial round of decaying storms this morning near sunrise, with CAMs showing some supercells popping off in the afternoon. There is little agreement on exactly where or when, other than that it will probably happen near or east of Tulsa. So I don't actually expect a lot of activity here today.
It looks like a better bet of dry line convection on Saturday afternoon, and this happens in a jacked out parameter space. Still a little early to try to guess exactly what this ends up looking like but the ceiling is high and I expect a moderate to come out on tomorrows outlook for Saturday. Saturday into Sunday either over or just east of me the initially discrete storms merge into a line of heavy rainfall so that is also in the potential mix.
It's worth noting that the rainfall forecasts from the NWS are dictated by WPC, not the local offices. Local offices can make changes to WPC for days 1-3 providing they can get their neighboring offices to agree to changes.
Additionally, its worth noting that WPC has a chronic high precip bias for amounts over 1" or so. So when you see big rainfall forecasts a few days out, it's probably going to diminish as it gets closer.
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