1...2...3...4...I declare a prefence war!

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Note that the two are quite different in terms of rainfall. The Tri-Cities average under 7"/year. Redding averages over 30"/year. I am sure Tim would spend the winter griping about rain if he lived in Redding.

Pointing out statistical anomalies is not gripping.  I always keep expectations in line with climo.   Always.   Otherwise its just silly.  We average 180 dry days a year here.  That is a fact.   We are at about 35 now and almost half way through the year.    Its been pretty strange and really anomalous since late March.   That is true even if you love rain... and quite interesting and apparently going to keep getting more anomalous.     You can't defend your position... its based on your feelings about me and not the facts.

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Note that the two are quite different in terms of rainfall. The Tri-Cities average under 7"/year. Redding averages over 30"/year. I am sure Tim would spend the winter griping about rain if he lived in Redding.

Parts of Redding area are actually wetter than Portland and Seattle. But even ignoring the temperature gap there's a huge difference in how the rain falls. The rain down there tends to be of the sporadic and heavy variety, mostly from ARs with sunny stretches (sometimes prolonged ones) in between. Basically Tim's ideal. Being on an upslope in SW flow they also take advantage of orographic lift. Very different from places north of the Umpqua River where the rain tends to be more of the persistent and light variety.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Parts of Redding area are actually wetter than Portland and Seattle. But even ignoring the temperature gap there's a huge difference in how the rain falls. The rain down there tends to be of the sporadic and heavy variety, mostly from ARs with sunny stretches (sometimes prolonged ones) in between. Basically Tim's ideal. Being on an upslope in SW flow they also take advantage of orographic lift. Very different from places north of the Umpqua River where the rain tends to be more of the persistent and light variety.

You think he wouldn’t keep track and remind us every time Redding went over climo norms for the number of rain days in a given month? I beg to differ.

[Deweydog]

I read somewhere that averages are derived and smoothed from a big bag of what would be considered anomalies.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pointing out statistical anomalies is not gripping.

Agreed. It's more amusing than suspenseful when you do it.

Quote

I always keep expectations in line with climo. Always.

I am shocked, just shocked, that there tend to be a lot of rainy days in a rain forest.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I read somewhere that averages are derived and smoothed from a big bag of what would be considered anomalies.

And we might just have some anomalies going other way later this year.     That seems to be how it usually works.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I read somewhere that averages are derived and smoothed from a big bag of what would be considered anomalies.

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” — Robert A. Heinlein.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Agreed. It's more amusing than suspenseful when you do it.

I am shocked, just shocked, that there tend to be a lot of rainy days in a rain forest.

Specifically... there about 180 dry days annually here in this rainforest.   That is not a subjective number.    We need about another 145 dry days this year to get to normal for this rainforest.    Better get going.   

[BLI snowman]

 

Tim just calls it as it is and pulls no punches.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” — Robert A. Heinlein.

“Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”

~Winston Churchill 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Tim just calls it as it is and pulls no punches.

Lets just get within 50 dry days of normal this year... that is a good goal.   I will gladly take 130 compared to the average of 180.   

In 2021... the Cedar Lake station ended up with 110 inches of rain (about 8 inches above normal) and had 170 dry days (fairly close to normal). 

The Cedar Lake station is currently 15 inches above normal for 2022 through May... and has had only 35 dry days this year.   

[Omegaraptor]

[TT-SEA]

Correction.   

I just went through the monthly F6 data and the Cedar Lake station has had only 21 dry days this year.    The normal through May is 63.   

Dry days by month for 2022:

January - 6 (normal is 11)

February - 6 (normal is 11)

March - 5 (normal is 12)

April  - 1 (normal is 14)

May - 2 (normal is 16)

Looking at the last two months... 3 dry days in total and normal is 30.   That is pretty crazy.    But there is certainly nothing unusual about this year compared to climo.   

Please respond from a statistical perspective and not about feelings.   

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Correction.   

I just went through the monthly F6 data and the Cedar Lake station has had only 21 dry days this year.    The normal through May is 63.   

Dry days by month for 2022:

January - 6 (normal is 11)

February - 6 (normal is 11)

March - 5 (normal is 12)

April  - 1 (normal is 14)

May - 2 (normal is 16)

Looking at the last two months... 3 dry days in total and normal is 30.   That is pretty crazy.    But there is certainly nothing unusual about this year compared to climo.   

Please respond from a statistical perspective and not about feelings.   

I'm sure a very large portion of these days are dry, pleasant afternoons.

This is the greenest the grass has been at my house this point in the year since 2012, and even 2012 was barely hanging on to the Spring green up. This year it's growing without remorse, forcing us to mow the lawn every week.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I'm sure a very large portion of these days are dry, pleasant afternoons.

This is the greenest the grass has been at my house this point in the year since 2012, and even 2012 was barely hanging on to the Spring green up. This year it's growing without remorse, forcing us to mow the lawn every week.

Are you talking about feelings and anecdotal stuff again? 

Just acknowledge the anomalous nature of those stats... particularly April and May.   Its pretty interesting.   And it's not like it's been dry here in recent years either.    In fact the last two years have been very wet overall.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you talking about feelings and anecdotal stuff again? 

Just acknowledge the anomalous nature of those stats... particularly April and May.   Its pretty interesting.   And it's not like it's been dry here in recent years either.    In fact the last two years have been very wet overall.

You’re the only one who’s actually worked up about it

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You’re the only one who’s actually worked up about it

I assure you that I am not the only one who has noticed how unusually persistent the rain has been... its undeniable and the stats prove it out.   Very strange year.    Maybe it gets balanced out later on.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

The Cedar Lake station annual average rainfall is 102 inches.

There was 123.64 inches in 2020 and 109.64 inches in 2021 at that station.     And now the 2022 stats listed above.

Can't wait to see the complaining from you when we string together a few years with only 80 inches of rain to balance that out.    The sun... it burns.   We live in a rainforest so it should always be raining.   The grass is turning brown!   

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I am at the college library and struggling to contain laughter. Forum hall of fame tier post.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you talking about feelings and anecdotal stuff again? 

Just acknowledge the anomalous nature of those stats... particularly April and May.   Its pretty interesting.   And it's not like it's been dry here in recent years either.    In fact the last two years have been very wet overall.

What? I am simply putting those stats into the context of how we see and experience the world. That's how this whole 'being alive' thing works. You can throw every weird, arbitrary stat at me but it will never tell me exactly how that day really was. You know, what it actually looked and felt like.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What? I am simply putting those stats into the context of how we see and experience the world. That's how this whole 'being alive' thing works. You can throw every weird, arbitrary stat at me but it will never tell me exactly how that day really was. You know, what it actually looked and felt like.

That is so irrelevant to a statistical discussion.    That is like saying it was a hot day but the night was fairly pleasant so it does not count statistically as a hot day because I enjoyed part of it.    

I enjoyed parts of many days during the last 2 months.   And its still been crazy wet.  

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is so irrelevant to a statistical discussion.    That is like saying it was a hot day but the night was fairly pleasant so it does not count statistically as a hot day because I enjoyed part of it.    

But what is the point of a statistical discussion if the statistics in question are completely arbitrary and have nothing to do with actual, tangible weather? There is no point!

[T-Town]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm sure a very large portion of these days are dry, pleasant afternoons.

This is the greenest the grass has been at my house this point in the year since 2012, and even 2012 was barely hanging on to the Spring green up. This year it's growing without remorse, forcing us to mow the lawn every week.

Just finished mowing. This is the best the lawn has looked in our five years here. There are a bunch of holes that will show back up once the weather dries out but for now it’s looking good. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

But what is the point of a statistical discussion if the statistics in question are completely arbitrary and have nothing to do with actual, tangible weather? There is no point!

No idea what you are talking about.   I guess the last decade of stats are irrelevant as well as long as you found ways to enjoy your life in those years.     Real scientific approach.   

[Kayla]

Good lord, we have a Tim thread now.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

No idea what you are talking about.   I guess the last decade of stats are irrelevant as well as long as you found ways to enjoy your life in those years.     Real scientific approach.   

What? This doesn't even remotely answer my question. I am saying that specific "dry days" stat is garbage. That one, in particular. At no point have you actually given me a solid reason why it's a good benchmark, let alone even attempted to defend it. Now you are getting all defensive for no reason.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Kayla said:

Good lord, we have a Tim thread now.

Its just crazy.

These responses are so silly.    

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Good lord, we have a Tim thread now.

I would have called it that but I'm not mean mean  

Besides, it's way better done here than in the main June thread. There's actually a really nice discussion about past winter weather events in the PDX area right now. You know, normal 'offseason' PNW wx discussion.

Plus this is a space where I feel like I can actually attempt a civil conversation with him without excessive restraint.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

What? This doesn't even remotely answer my question. I am saying that specific "dry days" stat is garbage. That one, in particular. At no point have you actually given me a solid reason why it's a good benchmark, let alone even attempted to defend it. Now you are getting all defensive for no reason.

Specifically its the "days with measurable precipitation" statistic.    And its by far the best gauge for me in terms of the tangible weather.    Not perfect of course because there are nuances... there are ugly dry days and nice days with measurable precip.    But overall its the best gauge and its not even close.     

That is the beautiful part of this climate.   There are normally 180 dry days per year and most of those days are absolutely lovely.    And some of the rainy days are also quite nice.   We don't get dry days in stormy patterns out here.  When its dry here its usually dry everywhere.     I would prefer we not stray dramatically from 50/50 balance of dry days and rainy days per climo.   

Not sure how else to explain it.    We should have some long stretches of dry days here coming up to balance out this recent stretch.    

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Specifically its the "days with measurable precipitation" statistic.    And its by far the best gauge for me in terms of the tangible weather.    Not perfect of course because there are nuances... there are ugly dry days and nice days with measurable precip.    But overall its the best gauge and its not even close.     

That is the beautiful part of this climate.   There are normally 180 dry days per year and most of those days are absolutely lovely.    And some of the rainy days are also quite nice.   We don't get dry days in stormy patterns out here.  When its dry here its usually dry everywhere.     I would prefer we not stray dramatically from 50/50 balance of dry days and rainy days per climo.   

Not sure how else to explain it.    We should have some long stretches of dry days here coming up to balance out this recent stretch.    

Thank you, it makes more sense to me now.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I would have called it that but I'm not mean mean  

Besides, it's way better done here than in the main June thread. There's actually a really nice discussion about past winter weather events in the PDX area right now. You know, normal 'offseason' PNW wx discussion.

Plus this is a space where I feel like I can actually attempt a civil conversation with him without excessive restraint.

How am I being uncivil?   Please explain.

I am being perfectly reasonable in expecting something close to climo for my area and you think I am raving lunatic and being completely unreasonable?    I don't know how to bridge that gap.  

If I was demanding 30 days of sun and highs above 80 all of June... that would be very unreasonable and should be called out.    That would be crazy.    I would be happy with just 10 dry days in June... compared to normal of 20.    Is that outlandish?  

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

How am I being uncivil?   Please explain.

I am being perfectly reasonable in expecting something close to climo for my area and you think I am raving lunatic and being completely unreasonable?    I don't know how to bridge that gap.  

If I was demanding 30 days of sun and highs above 80 all of June... that would be very unreasonable and should be called out.    That would be crazy.    I would be happy with just 10 dry days in June... compared to normal of 20.    Is that outlandish?  

I included the word 'civil' more as nomenclature than for emphasis, I did not mean to imply this.

[Omegaraptor]

Just checked - Tim has brought up rain statistics a total of 8 times today, used "dry days" 7 times, and cited the "180 dry days" statistic 4 times.

[TacomaWaWx]

As much grief as we give tim, still like the dude. Seems like a very nice guy even if his preferences are BS

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

As much grief as we give tim, still like the dude. Seems like a very nice guy even if his preferences are BS

Yeah, no beef with him. We just disagree on what kind of weather we like. Oh well. I'd just prefer to keep the discussions in here

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah, no beef with him. We just disagree on what kind of weather we like. Oh well. I'd just prefer to keep the discussions in here

I agree, glad we’re finally utilizing this thread as a way to express our preference related anger

[MossMan]

Hi everybody! 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I agree, glad we’re finally utilizing this thread as a way to express our preference related anger

...And the quality of discussion on the main thread has improved drastically as a result!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MossMan said:

Hi everybody! 

Fuckk you.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Hi everybody! 

How’s it going buddy?