Nickle and dimers who wants a change Feb 8-10th storm?

[Madtown]

Looks like another round of 1 to maybe 3" over the area.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like another round of 1 to maybe 3" over the area.

Lol great title. This stuff is gettin old.

[Money]

NAM trending wetter compared to 12z. 2-4 now showing up for pretty much all of us

[DominicR]

[Tony]

Looks like a good start and has decent amount of Pacific moisture to work with.

[Tom]

As Snowman noted in his blogs, this storm is coming from Japan and it rolled on through the center of Japan so if you extrapolate the 6-10 east Asian theory and also the LRC, this storm should hit the center of the nation.  LRC had this storm back in December going through S/C IL.  If I remember correctly, this storm was a big one that hit Japan and its looking rather impressive in the Pacific right now.  Models are taking baby steps and wont have a good handle on the wave until it gets closer to the shore.  Wouldn't be surprised if this continues trending bigger and wetter.

[East Dubzz]

DVN not too impressed:

 

 

 

SATURDAY...PASSING DISTURBANCE HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50+ PERCENT WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TOOLS SUPPORTS MOST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW. HIGHS HAVE TRENDED UP AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT
AT THIS TIME ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS
DEPENDING ON SFC LOW TRACK. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEARING LATE WITH LIGHT
SNOW ENDING AND MINS MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY AT LEAST 3 DEGREES TOO
LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.

[Geos]

18z NAM

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

As Snowman noted in his blogs, this storm is coming from Japan and it rolled on through the center of Japan so if you extrapolate the 6-10 east Asian theory and also the LRC, this storm should hit the center of the nation.  LRC had this storm back in December going through S/C IL.  If I remember correctly, this storm was a big one that hit Japan and its looking rather impressive in the Pacific right now.  Models are taking baby steps and wont have a good handle on the wave until it gets closer to the shore.  Wouldn't be surprised if this continues trending bigger and wetter.

 

"Another nickel dimer" in my best Bill Raftery voice (for anyone who watches college bball).

[james1976]

no way chicago gets hit again 

[DominicR]

ABC 7 going with 2-3 inches.

[indianajohn]

So this storm doesn't look Iike it will amplify much?

[MKEstorm]

With all these nickel & dimers...I'll be rich by the end of winter

[MKEstorm]

no way chicago gets hit again 

 

Ya...what are the odds? eh..LOL.

[DominicR]

So this storm doesn't look Iike it will amplify much?

 

Eh it does slightly but to flat for anything major.

[james1976]

00z nam sucks

[Tony]

6z NAM is ok I guess. This will probably be a high ratio snow so it could fluff up nicely especially with a good DGZ at or above 300

[East Dubzz]

Nice 12z NAM run. The DVN seems to keep thinking this is an inch maker at most, I don't know about that, especially since they said 15:1 ratios. Apparently they think models are overdoing the QPF.

[Tony]

LOT morning AFD:

 

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE ON MASS FIELDS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER JET
MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADVANCING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A QUICK-MOVING SORT OF HYBRID PACIFIC/CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS INTO THE
AREA. DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN GUIDANCE IN HOW IT EVOLVES THE LOW-
LEVEL FEATURES...WITH THE 00Z/06Z NAM BEING 10MB DEEPER THAN THE
00Z EC ON THE SURFACE WAVE...AND ACTUALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A
DEEPENING TREND IN THE SFC WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THE NAM CAN BE A BIT ROBUST ON DAY 3 IT SEEMS...THE
PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE STRONG AND
ITS ORIENTATION WOULD FAVOR A LOW TO AT LEAST HOLD ITS INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. SO AGAIN LEAN WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND
00Z GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS A MIDDLE GROUND QPF FORECAST.

THE IMPRESSIVE FEATURE WITH THIS IS THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAGNITUDE
AND ITS ADVECTION...DIRECTLY OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON GUIDANCE...AND IT TIGHTENS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO WHERE IT
WOULD SEEM TEMPORARY BANDING COULD BE A CONCERN. THE GFS ALSO WOULD
SUGGEST THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED AND GIVEN
A LIMITED RETURN FLOW PERIOD...WOULD EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE COOL
ENOUGH TO PRESENT THIS AS A POSSIBLE CONCERN. SO HAVE GONE TOWARD
15:1 RATIOS IN INITIAL SNOW FORECAST. VORT MAGNITUDE USING
EMPIRICAL LEMO TECHNIQUE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW INCH STRIPE
OF SNOW SOMEWHERE...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE AS WE GET CLOSER...AS
DURATION OF SNOW COULD OVERALL BE LIMITED IF EARLY SATURATION IS
AN ISSUE. WHILE CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCH UP POPS...NOW WITH 70
PERCENTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IL ON SATURDAY. DID NOT GET FANCY
TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORNING VS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION WILL INEVITABLY BE ABLE TO BE ADDED IN TIME.

 

[Tony]

NAM staying steady. This is not your typical moisture starved clipper as it originates from the Pacific NW so should hopefully be able to tap more moisture as it developes.

[East Dubzz]

[Geos]

I'll call 2" on this one at this point. Given that the NAM is a bit wet usually.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, I think 1-3" is a good bet for a lot of people. DVN doesn't agree, but almost every model is saying it right now. They say too much limited moisture and too fast moving... But it really doesn't take that long to get an inch or two if you can get some moderate snow, which I bet we see with this.

[Geos]

12z GFS

 

[Tom]

JB posted this pic regarding this system.  He's been riding the JMA all winter long and it has done well in long term forecasting 500mb pattern (troughs/ridges) but not so sure with storm systems.  In any event, this model showing the wave trying to go neg tilt in the Midwest.  We still have some time for models to digest data.  If we see any strengthening in the models come tonights 00z runs then I'd say the model is onto something.  We'll see if anything comes out of this.

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

JB posted this pic regarding this system.  He's been riding the JMA all winter long and it has done well in long term forecasting 500mb pattern (troughs/ridges) but not so sure with storm systems.  In any event, this model showing the wave trying to go neg tilt in the Midwest.  We still have some time for models to digest data.  If we see any strengthening in the models come tonights 00z runs then I'd say the model is onto something.  We'll see if anything comes out of this.

Looking at the NAM, it certainly looks like it could be possible:

 

[james1976]

dont get my hopes up. lol

[Tom]

Skilling showing 3-4" for N IL/S WI...I couldn't see what it had for IA but anyone north of I-80 seems to be in the right spot for this one.

[Sleather]

I was looking at the plumes. Most the families support the 2-3" for Joliet area. But, the Advanced Research WRF mean for accum snow is showing 5". I'll still guess ~3" or so.

[dubuque473]

NAM staying steady. This is not your typical moisture starved clipper as it originates from the Pacific NW so should hopefully be able to tap more moisture as it developes.

 

Dubuque Special according to that.

[Tom]

18z NAM still holding...would be nice to see this amp up some more in future runs.  Could be one of those classic hybrid Clippers but coming off the Pacific.

 

This will be a classic 20:1 + snow ratio systems.  The 522 thickness lines goes down to C IL and the 514 creeps into WI/IL border.  Talk about how high snow ratios this system can create.

[Geos]

LOT

 

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL OF THESE PV ANOMALIES IS STILL EXPECTED TO  
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE PREVIOUS  
DISCUSSION MENTIONED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SURFACE  
REFLECTION FROM THIS DISTURBANCE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL BE QUITE POTENT.  
THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR PRODUCING AT  
LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE  
MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT ARE STILL HIGHLY  
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERY STEEP MID  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...6.5-7.0 DEGREES C PER KM COULD DEVELOP ACROSS  
THE AREA AS THE BEST DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS  
SUCH...WHEREVER ANY BANDS OF GOOD FGEN SET UP...THERE COULD BE  
BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHER  
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO PICK OUT  
ANY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR THIS POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT. THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ DURING THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED  
RATIOS UP AROUND 15-16 TO 1. FOLLOWING THIS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS  
COULD BE A 2 TO 4 INCH EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.  

 

[james1976]

DMX saying 2-3 for my area.

[Madtown]

MKX going with 1-2". Thinking .5"

[Yerf]

When does the snow hit the chicago are

[Madtown]

miss to the south of here it looks like, the beat goes on

[Geos]

Well this system will probably get me over 60" for the season, but not much more.

 

1-3" in the grids here, About 1.5" in Wisconsin. 12km NAM.

 

[Tony]

This is what NCEP is thinking

[Madtown]

The mother of all nickels is on our door step....no one seems to be excited. Final Call of 1.2 in Madison

[Geos]

The mother of all nickels is on our door step....no one seems to be excited. Final Call of 1.2 in Madison

 

Just another small snow system. 

 

18z NAM favors your area.

 

[Tom]

There is a 2nd wave that develops with the Clipper system on Saturday and it's producing a more significant bout of snow for IL/IN Saturday night.  Could see some 4-6" totals just south of Chicago.

[Tom]

RPM model showing that 4-6" band south of Chicago...this run is showing more widespread 2-4" totals.  Wouldn't be surprised to see more 3-4" totals given the high snow rations about 20:1. 

[Geos]

Latest NAM dried out further...

 

 

Starting to think 1-2" may be it for this far north.

[Tom]

00z RGEM a little more precip....
 

 

[Sleather]

A few lonely flakes falling here this morning in Plainfield, IL.

[james1976]

snowing very hard here...maybe the hardest ive seen it snow all winter. very nice.

[Geos]

Very light snow here. Somehow about 0.3" has fallen. Radar is not impressive to say the least.

[East Dubzz]

Very light snow here. Somehow about 0.3" has fallen. Radar is not impressive to say the least.

Knew the radar wasn't going to look good with this one. Just not an impressive storm overall.

 

Been snowing here for a little bit. Not in the main band yet, so it hasn't been snowing very hard, but there are some good sized flakes out there.

[Sleather]

Isn't very impressive anywhere but it's a good sign that it is snowing earlier than thought. Maybe the totals will get boosted by some minor amount 1/2-1"

[Geos]

We have another wave coming, so who knows.