December Observations and Discussions

[OKwx2k4]

Not likely to erase positive departures but if it does could you pledge not to post for 3 months?? That would be great.

This x10.

[james1976]

Most people in this forum know more about weather than I do.....but, judging by the 10 day torch coming up coupled with the pattern change coming mid-month, my guess is we end up slightly above avg for temps this month as a whole. But not a month long torch or way above for the month. I think it will be below normal 2nd half so it should even out pretty well.

[Tom]

If the positive departures get erased round here I wont post for a month

That's not what I meant.  What I said was that I believe those positive departures that your region will build over the next 10 days or so will be significantly erased by months end.  Say, for example, during the first 15 days of this month you end up being +10F above normal.  I'd say you will end up +3 by months end.  Got it???

 

So you think we lock into a below average temp pattern?

I believe that after the 15th, once the first big storm hits around the 11th/12, we lock into a below normal pattern from the central/southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  It gets iffy from OH/Appalachians and points East.

[gosaints]

This x10.

How dare anyone make posts on a weather board about anything other than cold.

[Maxim]

Oh okay, so I guess I should be expecting -15F departures next month with the way the pattern is shaping up.

[Tom]

Oh okay, so I guess I should be expecting -15F departures next month with the way the pattern is shaping up.

If the "Nanook from the north" makes an appearance in late January, you may see an arctic outbreak that brings a couple days that cold.  Target period would be Jan 20/21st - 27th/28th.

[Tom]

I've been trying to figure out the LRC pattern and I'm seeing the pattern beginning to show up in the models.  Off the top of my head, I think the cycle length is centered around 47-50 days, +/- a couple days.  Having said that, I see both GEFS/EPS cycling a big part of this year's LRC around the 12th/13th of December.  There was a deep trough that formed out in the west on Oct 19th-22nd that ejected a cut-off low in the Plains.   Well, 12z EPS/Control and even today's 18z GFS are picking up on a deep trough digging into the W/SW region and forming a storm in the Plains.  I know that is way out in Fantasy Land, but this was an important feature in this year's LRC.  Euro Weeklies also had a deep trough in the west/central states during this period.

It isn't rocket science if you know what to look for.  It certainly is NOT wish-casting....I made this call on the potential Dec 12th storm back on November 25th!  That is roughly 17 days out from this potential storm system...am I wrong about this???  Or the models must be delusional because it can't happen.  Of course it can, its the cyclical nature of the climate we all live in.

[gosaints]

It isn't rocket science if you know what to look for.  It certainly is NOT wish-casting....I made this call on the potential Dec 12th storm back on November 25th!  That is roughly 17 days out from this potential storm system...am I wrong about this???  Or the models must be delusional because it can't happen.  Of course it can, its the cyclical nature of the climate we all live in.

I am not at all disagreeing with you about storminess. Have not all fall. Temperatures are another story.

[Tom]

I am not at all disagreeing with you about storminess. Have not all fall. Temperatures are another story.

Maybe we can all learn something from one another.  That, I hope, is what this forum can bring.  I guess we can both agree the torch is coming???  

[Tom]

Just saw Skilling's weather segment and ORD has had its Top 5 snowiest start to any Winter season...official total thus far is 12.4"...

[Tom]

I showed reasons why there are changes brewing in the N PAC waters.  30mb warming...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

12z EPS...day 10-15 mean below...Day 13-15 they are popping the Red Pain bomb south of the Aleutians (-PNA) which should center the cold in the west/central CONUS.

[Geos]

I think it's going to be near the 20th maybe a little before, before we start seeing widespread wintry weather. I think there will still be some wild temperatures swings late in the month, but not as many far above normal days for temperatures. I think most of the central Midwest/Corn Belt regions on southward will continue with the wet pattern straight into January. I think certain teleconnections are sending the moisture further north than you would expect in a strong el Niño winter.

 

With regards to snowfall; here at almost 16" so far, that tally wasn't reached until the blizzard on February 1st last year. 

[james1976]

I showed reasons why there are changes brewing in the N PAC waters.  30mb warming...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

12z EPS...day 10-15 mean below...Day 13-15 they are popping the Red Pain bomb south of the Aleutians (-PNA) which should center the cold in the west/central CONUS.

That warming looks like its brewing quickly!

[james1976]

I think it's going to be near the 20th maybe a little before, before we start seeing widespread wintry weather. I think there will still be some wild temperatures swings late in the month, but not as many far above normal days for temperatures. I think most of the central Midwest/Corn Belt regions on southward will continue with the wet pattern straight into January. I think certain teleconnections are sending the moisture further north than you would expect in a strong el Niño winter.

 

With regards to snowfall; here at almost 16" so far, that tally wasn't reached until the blizzard on February 1st last year. 

So you guys in Chicago area are well over a foot as well. Its only Dec 2nd! Off to a great start. We are at about 13" here as well.

[Tom]

That warming looks like its brewing quickly!

Indeed, if we can just get some of that to push a bit farther north into the Arctic it would weaken the PV...something the longer range models may be sniffing out towards the end of the month.  However, that idea has to many variables that are working against it at the moment.

[Geos]

So you guys in Chicago area are well over a foot as well. Its only Dec 2nd! Off to a great start. We are at about 13" here as well.

 

We need to send a bigger snow system to Nebraska before our next big one though! They need to catch up! 

 

@ Tom

A high near Greenland or over Greenland and one over Alaska can act to destabilize the polar vortex. Start hooking that ridge over the top and its days are numbered - in its tropospheric form.

[james1976]

I think some of the folks in NE have had atleast 6" so far???

[james1976]

00z GFS has a trough at hr 240 that looks like the 12z Euro.

[gosaints]

00z GFS has a trough at hr 240 that looks like the 12z Euro.

Very strong signal across the board

[clintbeed1993]

I think some of the folks in NE have had atleast 6" so far???

 

We got about 6 inches total from 3 storms.  Not exactly basking in the white gold.   And this is coming off multiple terrible winters.  You guys in Iowa/Illinois once again have more.

[clintbeed1993]

And 6 inches is on the high end.  Many places only got 3 or 4 inches total from 3 storms.  Pretty dismal.  Especially considering the people to our east who got 8+ from 1 clipper.

[clintbeed1993]

So yeah, please send the big one our way first.  We truly do deserve it over here.

[Geos]

So yeah, please send the big one our way first.  We truly do deserve it over here.

 

You need one widespread big dumping.

Way overdue imo. 

[Jaycee]

I think some of the folks in NE have had atleast 6" so far???

I'd say maybe 2-3" total here. Really haven't had much in Eastern Nebraska at all this year.

[Money]

I've had 1/2 inch of snow so far maybe even less than that

[centralweather44]

1.2" reported at the airport here in Loncoln in southeast Nebradka. Usually don't agree with the airport but this year they are spot on. Other than that just flurries, and of coarse the ice we had last Thursdsy night. Central Nebraska and just west of here 50-75 miles or so they have had 4-10" or more depending on location

[Iowa2015]

We haven't had much Snow here only couple inches in S.e Iowa

[Grizzcoat]

Well said, in fact, today's 12z suite run of the GFS/EURO/GGEM all show a -AO developing on the 12th.  We will certainly keep on eye on a SE shift in the large system that is being forecast on the 11th/12th.  BTW, it's right on schedule and was predictable given the pattern! I love when a pattern comes together...don't you???

 

17th, there's some of that being advertised. Does not look like a boring 2nd half. Kinda like a Lion's game/season - all the action to finish.

 

It is becoming more evident that hemispheric blocking is going to setup over the next 10+ days...along with a solid SE ridge signal (-PNA) this pattern is going to be conducive for a very stormy/colder regime for the west/central CONUS.

 

 

Amen!  Month-long torch is out of the question, IMO.

 

SOI continues the sudden crash...

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 02 Dec 2015

Average for last 30 days -4.80

Average for last 90 days -14.40

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -33.68

 

Most recent-

 

SOI values for 03 Dec 2015 Average for last 30 days -6.08 Average for last 90 days -15.01 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -47.59

 

 

-47.59??  That is about as low as it gets. Shoud have some fun and games in about 2 weeks!!!

 

[OKwx2k4]

I believe the cold will finally penetrate far enough south to get my area involved in some of the fun this time around. If not my area exactly then places like Tulsa and parts of far NE Oklahoma.

[gosaints]

I just want to reinterate my point never once did I say that it wouldnt get cold enough to snow.  I am not that stupid.  My point is even when it does get cold enough to snow in the latter half of the month the temperatures in the upper midwest are still seasonally average or better.  For example the GFS has a decent storm cutting through southern Illinois around hour 300 that easily cold enough to support snow on the backside.  Even so the air that it brings down around here is above normal...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120306/gfs_T850_us_46.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120306/gfs_T2ma_us_46.png

[Tom]

00z Euro trending farther SE with the storm around the 11th/12.  Whoever will sit out ahead of it will see record warmth.  Euro pumps mid/upper 60's out ahead of the storm in IL/IN/MI/OH/MO Day 9-10.  This should be a fun storm to track.  Hopefully this thing can phase and become a big neg tilt system.  Teleconnections support the northern branch to shift south around this period.

 

@ Grizz, this SOI crash and the torching El Nino, I can't imagine how much energy is being released into the atmosphere in the central Pacific that is energizing the jet stream.  Models are certainly going to misbehave over the next 2 weeks trying to figure out this pattern.  The reaction...there are going to be some powerhouse storms to track.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'll vote for the south trend. Something frustrating about 3 days of clouds, rain and cool air.

[gosaints]

watching the trends...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151202.NAsfcT.gif

[james1976]

I hope that storm around the 13-14th has some cold air to work with. GFS looks marginal at this point. Temps dont really crash til after the storm goes by.

[gosaints]

I hope that storm around the 13-14th has some cold air to work with. GFS looks marginal at this point. Temps dont really crash til after the storm goes by.

Really is looking like a rare December severe set up

[Tom]

I just want to reinterate my point never once did I say that it wouldnt get cold enough to snow.  I am not that stupid.  My point is even when it does get cold enough to snow in the latter half of the month the temperatures in the upper midwest are still seasonally average or better.  For example the GFS has a decent storm cutting through southern Illinois around hour 300 that easily cold enough to support snow on the backside.  Even so the air that it brings down around here is above normal...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120306/gfs_T850_us_46.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120306/gfs_T2ma_us_46.png

Model mayhem...different 12z GFS run...I expect back and forth over the next 7 days so the models get a grip on the pattern leading us towards mid month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120312/gfs_T2m_us_46.png

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120312/gfs_T2ma_us_46.png

That is still above normal

[Tom]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120312/gfs_T2ma_us_46.png

That is still above normal

I understand, but that is right about the time when high latitude blocking sets up and right now models will take their time to figure it all out.  Below normal following the 15th will be the way to go I think.

[Iowa2015]

Ya it looks to be awfully warm when that storm around 12-14th time frame goes bye What a waste of a storm that be if no cold air around. Cold air arrives behind that after that very limited moisture to work with few hundreds of a inch at best. Cold n mostly dry waste of cold air

[GDR]