December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

What is the issue with Richard, seriously.

 

If you actually take the time to read his posts instead of passing judgment you would find that he is incredibly accurate while not using the models at all in his projections of cold air, most of the time weeks out.

I was just joking, harmless fun. You're right. I can read his posts fairly easily and he is really accurate, and has his own methods that work.

[Deweydog]

I say we put a moratorium on posts containing the word carrots.

[Phil]

What is the issue with Richard, seriously.

 

If you actually take the time to read his posts instead of passing judgment you would find that he is incredibly accurate while not using the models at all in his projections of cold air, most of the time weeks out.

It was a joke. Why are you so uptight at times?

[Gradient Keeper]

I say we put a moratorium on posts containing the word carrots.

Maybe. What if we mention to dip the carrots in ranch dressing. Which symbolizes absolutely nothing in the context of snow or cold.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I say we put a moratorium on posts containing the word carrots.

I like carrots... whatever!! 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Richard's the Mann.  I really like his stuff--DJ's too!!!

[Front Ranger]

What is the issue with Richard, seriously.

 

If you actually take the time to read his posts instead of passing judgment you would find that he is incredibly accurate while not using the models at all in his projections of cold air, most of the time weeks out.

 

People could be nicer.

 

But Richard is pretty vague in his projections of where cold air is moving, so I'm not sure how anyone could claim he's "incredibly accurate". Also, how do you know he doesn't look at models at all?

 

Personally, I think you like the idea of Richard: the misunderstood genius who speaks in a code that only a patient few can decipher, deftly predicting the future far better than regular people who use regular "science".

[Front Ranger]

Richard's the Mann.  I really like his stuff--DJ's too!!!

 

You stole my lame joke.

[GHweatherChris]

People could be nicer.

 

But Richard is pretty vague in his projections of where cold air is moving, so I'm not sure how anyone could claim he's "incredibly accurate". Also, how do you know he doesn't look at models at all?

 

Personally, I think you like the idea of Richard: the misunderstood genius who speaks in a code that only a patient few can decipher, deftly predicting the future far better than regular people who use regular "science".

You can think what you want, but if you go back the last few years or further he has called cold shots well in advance of models even showing it.

 

But maybe thats just me appealing to the mystery of Richard, huh?

 

In my time here the last 7 years he has been the best overall with accuracy hands down.

[Front Ranger]

You can think what you want, but if you go back the last few years or further he has called cold shots well in advance of models even showing it.

 

But maybe thats just me appealing to the mystery of Richard, huh?

 

In my time here the last 7 years he has been the best overall with accuracy hands down.

 

And you can believe what you want. Everyone has an opinion...

[ShawniganLake]

My lawn grew about 1/2" this week, and I saw the first signs of a few daffodil bulbs this week.....Fun times.  Been Mild. 

[GHweatherChris]

And you can believe what you want. Everyone has an opinion...

Wait, what?? Its ok to have an opinion here, thats blasphemy and you know it!!!!

 

LOL

[BLI snowman]

My lawn grew about 1/2" this week, and I saw the first signs of a few daffodil bulbs this week.....Fun times.  Been Mild. 

 

Can't wait for the lilacs to bloom in mid January. 

[Front Ranger]

Wait, what?? Its ok to have an opinion here, thats blasphemy and you know it!!!!

 

LOL

 

If opinions were snowflakes, this place would be buried in at least 6" all year long.

[BLI snowman]

If all goes according to plan, Tuesday is looking like it'll be the first (and last?) dry day of the month. A little nail-biting excitement for those keeping score at home. 

[GHweatherChris]

If opinions were snowflakes, this place would be buried in at least 6" all year long.

6" seems a bit too optimistic for most.

 

Too many "micro" climates on here.

[liquidsnow]

I take the Euro looks like crap?

 

Going to assume so.

[Front Ranger]

I take the Euro looks like crap?

 

Going to assume so.

 

No big changes through the believable range.

 

Looks like it's about to dangle some sort of vegetable at the end.

[liquidsnow]

No big changes through the believable range.

 

Looks like it's about to dangle some sort of vegetable at the end.

 

Vegetable? It better be a carrot for my snowman.....

[stuffradio]

No big changes through the believable range.

 

Looks like it's about to dangle some sort of vegetable at the end.

Carrot cake?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 00z ECMWF much different and improved from previous dozen runs or so. Not bad.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121100/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

[Deweydog]

Climo appears to be a good guide for the next 7-10 days.

[Gradient Keeper]

Climo appears to be a good guide for the next 7-10 days.

When isn't it. I hate Climo. Climo makes things way too boring. Climo doesn't like carrots(or radishes) either. Onto 6z!

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up................

*6z NAM in 23 minutes

6z GFS in 2 hours 8 minutes

12z NAM in 6 hours 23 minutes

12z GFS in 8 hours 8 minutes

12z GEM in 8 hours 36 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 30 minutes

 

 

GOOD NIGHT

[High Desert Mat]

Agreed Dewey, except for the fact you could be Tim's twin brother? Except with sharper wit.

[TT-SEA]

When isn't it. I hate Climo. Climo makes things way too boring. Climo doesn't like carrots(or radishes) either. Onto 6z!

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up................

*6z NAM in 23 minutes

6z GFS in 2 hours 8 minutes

12z NAM in 6 hours 23 minutes

12z GFS in 8 hours 8 minutes

12z GEM in 8 hours 36 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 30 minutes

 

 

GOOD NIGHT

 

 

Sure feels like the models are back to having a cold bias in the mid and long range again.   Everything cold just disappears as it gets within 5-6 days.   Fun times.

 

A couple dry days and some skiing will be nice at least.    Maybe some frost so I don't have to look at my grass growing in December.  

[Deweydog]

Agreed Dewey, except for the fact you could be Tim's twin brother? Except with sharper wit.

Don't blame me, blame Polar Vortex and the Rossby Twins.

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe a quick slushy inch for a few snow starved folks on Wednesday night. 

[liquidsnow]

Sure feels like the models are back to having a cold bias in the mid and long range again.   Everything cold just disappears as it gets within 5-6 days.   Fun times.

 

A couple dry days and some skiing will be nice at least.    Maybe some frost so I don't have to look at my grass growing in December.  

 

You can have dry days but you can't have skiing. Or you can have skiing but no dry days. Don't be greedy.

[HighlandExperience]

Maybe a quick slushy inch for a few snow starved folks on Wednesday night. 

thursday-snow.jpg

 

That is nice that the ECMWF is showing this. It be nice if it were more widespread. Looks like a good dusting of snow from Vancouver BC down to Tacoma, WA. 

 

I just need a little lowland snow to make me happy after last season. 

[richard mann]

lol... Well having Richard post two easily coherent post in the same day would be about as miraculous as getting a major arctic and snow event here.

 

I don't need this type of .. encouragement. 

 

— I don't post here to hear your assessment, of your ability, to comprehend what I've intended (even if only hoped.) to convey. 

 

(How'd ja do with this one. ?)

 

Seriously?

 

Richard is very easy to understand with any of his posts, you just have to actually read them through.

 

.. In fact, by design.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't need this type of .. encouragement.

 

— I don't post here to hear your assessment, of your ability, to comprehend what I've attended to convey.

 

(How'd ja do with this one. ?)

 

 

.. In fact, by design.

Awesome!! Thanks!! we might actually get artic and snow after all!!

[richard mann]

Get real Chris, we all know that isn't true.

 

Get "back", "Mat". ..

[richard mann]

Awesome!! Thanks!!

 

Great. Glad to hear it.

[richard mann]

Well, ' * surmise why you, in that(parenthesis), .....and just with that. *. > to "you" when I say "YOU" with a smaller screen(parenthesis and referring to a screen resolutuion smaller than the average size) *but, and with that you could think that "I", was perhaps

 

"Interestingly" (?) .. I've, taken your idea of "poking fun", as "general degradation". ...

[richard mann]

Did you type that????

 

I'm not understanding your question. Did I type what. ? .. Do you mean "write" the article that I've routed to. ?

 

— Why would you think "that". ?

[richard mann]

People could be nicer.

 

But Richard is pretty vague in his projections of where cold air is moving, so I'm not sure how anyone could claim he's "incredibly accurate". Also, how do you know he doesn't look at models at all?

 

Personally, I think you like the idea of Richard:  the misunderstood genius [:] who speaks in a code that only a patient few can decipher, deftly predicting the future far better than regular people who use regular "science".

 

A) .. Fairly insulting. 

... Regarding the "vague[ness" of my projections, ... If you were to consider, with actually looking at "all" cold air mass, at the synoptic level, then you'd perhaps have a better gage of what it is that I work to project. .. As I've worked to convey within many of my more projection focused posts, where looking at colder air mass " ... Across the board, from east to west. Fuller Northern Hemisphere."

C) .. "code", is your perception and characterization. (Do you view any of what I've written here within this post, as being "coded" in some way. ?)

D)  Regarding "your" not knowing whether or not I "look at the models". .. I have, in fact said that I don't. Fairly clearly, at the bottom of each post that I submit more projection focused. @  (Is there perhaps something more that I can do for you toward making the statement that I've suggested pointed to here above more believable. ?) Regarding its general integrity (and my own.), in fact I do quite a bit even, to avoid looking at the model inclusive posts submitted to this sub-formum. On occasion, I'll comment with respect to something Tim has tacked up.

E)  Were you to ask me what I've meant to convey where perhaps finding yourself "confused" by something that I've posted—instead of languishing with your opinions before posting them here if only as such for all to take in—then you might be able to appreciate what you haven't that I've suggested, better. ...

F) .. What are you seeing relative to what I've suggested within my most recent projection submitted. ? .. If appreciable. ? (.. If I may.) 

 

... Appreciate, the general diversion, btw.  ("Not.")

[crf450ish]

Good morning folks....31 here W/ clouds(hopefully ready to drop some flakes).

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS in 34 minutes

Not too encouraged that we'll see any drastic improvements beyond day 7. There just aren't a lot of signals pointing towards a cold/snowy solution for us below roughly 1000' or for an arctic blast. 00z EC operational was improved after day 8, but looking at the EC ENS 500mb shows it was an outlier. 00z CMC/ENS also were disappointing. It seems we have pretty solid model agreement through about HR 144(Day 6), after this point solutions diverge with each model a bit different in handling energy coming off of Asia, development of low pressure in the southern Bering or off the Kamchatka Peninsula, as well as how quickly or strong the Aleutian ridge builds/amplifies. I think even if models beyond day 7 did improve showing a stronger ridge/500mb anomaly with a digging arctic trough that any cold solution would be fairly temporary due to the progressive nature of the overall pattern. The only real difference I see is the potential for the PV to be dislodged from Siberia over into Nunavut or maybe the Northwest Territories. Is there time for models to possibly trend colder? Well, sure, but it's a slight chance at this point.

[Phil]

12z GFS in 34 minutes

Not too encouraged that we'll see any drastic improvements beyond day 7. There just aren't a lot of signals pointing towards a cold/snowy solution for us below roughly 1000' or for an arctic blast. 00z EC operational was improved after day 8, but looking at the EC ENS 500mb shows it was an outlier. 00z CMC/ENS also were disappointing. It seems we have pretty solid model agreement through about HR 144(Day 6), after this point solutions diverge with each model a bit different in handling energy coming off of Asia, development of low pressure in the southern Bering or off the Kamchatka Peninsula, as well as how quickly or strong the Aleutian ridge builds/amplifies. I think even if models beyond day 7 did improve showing a stronger ridge/500mb anomaly with a digging arctic trough that any cold solution would be fairly temporary due to the progressive nature of the overall pattern. The only real difference I see is the potential for the PV to be dislodged from Siberia over into Nunavut or maybe the Northwest Territories. Is there time for models to possibly trend colder? Well, sure, but it's a slight chance at this point.

Technically, the PV isn't a tropospheric entity, but I get what you're saying. The actual PV (in the stratosphere) looks as healthy and symmetrical as it ever has since satellite records began, which is bad news for us.

[Phil]

Here's a nice 3D illustration depicting the coupled nature of the stratosphere and polar troposphere.