Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[jcwxguy]

6z gfs

[Andrew NE]

It did move SE just a hair with the 06 GFS.

[CentralNebWeather]

Gfs has stayed firm. Nws Hastings is starting to sound concerned about a long duration event but still waiting for the event to draw nearer.

[Money]

1 in SE NEB and over a foot in central NEB lol

[gosaints]

The major question going forward seems to be whether this pattern relaxation is transient or a step down to a more wintery pattern....

 

The CFS has to strikeout at some point right???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201601.gif

[jcwxguy]

where can i find the euro parallel runs ?  on facebook Jim said the parallel run of the euro clocks parts of eastern nebraska snow wise 

[Tom]

where can i find the euro parallel runs ?  on facebook Jim said the parallel run of the euro clocks parts of eastern nebraska snow wise 

I am only aware of it being on Wx Bell...here you go...

[GDR]

I am only aware of it being on Wx Bell...here you go...

that would sure Brighten up some of the moods of you Nebraska folks.

[Tom]

Winter officially began at 10:48 CST time last night but it doesn't look and feel like Winter out there...YET.

 

I've done some digging and correlations are transpiring at both 10mb & 30mb.  Notice current placement of HP over Eurasia at 10mb below...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f00.png

 

By Day 10 it is shifting eastward elongating the PV...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f240.png

 

Now, take a look at the warming beginning to show up in eastern Eurasia (current location of HP) on the 10mb temp animation...something is starting to blossom...its def poking northward towards the Pole and is likely the energy transfer which AER suggested would happen this week.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

It's also beginning to happen at 30mb...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

Certainly looks like things are lining up towards a different pattern as we approach January.

[Tom]

Started a separate thread for the post-Christmas storm threat...

[OKwx2k4]

That one may finally punch through the vortex. Already appears to be further north than the one in late November. Here's hoping it's successful.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing the next storm on the horizon which should track farther SE that the first one.  This next system may be an Apps runner or lower lakes cutter.  Both 30-day cycle/LRC had a very dynamic storm system coming out of the 4 corners region.  30-day cycle suggest a Gulf system emerging (remnants of Hurricane Sandra scenario) and tracking due NNE.  Plenty cold air available this time around.

[Tom]

12z GEFS/EPS continue to blow torch NW NAMER Week 1-2...that's more like it...

 

Day 9...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015122212/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_10.png

 

Day 10...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015122212/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

 

Expect it to trend colder as we get closer in the lower 48.

[Tom]

Chicago AFD at least mentioning the possibility of some snow at the beginning and end of this system.

 

SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY OVER THE NORTHERN

HALF OF THE REGION...WITH THE RAIN TEMPORARILY SHIFTING SOUTH.

HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST UPPER SYSTEM...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE

LOW...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BY

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES IN

WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BEGIN TO

SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY BY

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE

REGION...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION MAY ONSET AS A WINTER MIX

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO

LIFT BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP SHOULD

CHANGE TO RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO

MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD END

AS A PERIOD OF -SN UNDER THE COLD UPPER LOW EARLY ON TUESDAY.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CONDITIONS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH

FOR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

I created a thread for this storm...take a gander

[bainbridgekid]

I created a thread for this storm...take a gander

Whoops. Thought I was in that thread.

 

I'll move it.

[Geos]

Winter officially began at 10:48 CST time last night but it doesn't look and feel like Winter out there...YET.

 

I've done some digging and correlations are transpiring at both 10mb & 30mb.  Notice current placement of HP over Eurasia at 10mb below...

 

 

By Day 10 it is shifting eastward elongating the PV...

 

 

Now, take a look at the warming beginning to show up in eastern Eurasia (current location of HP) on the 10mb temp animation...something is starting to blossom...its def poking northward towards the Pole and is likely the energy transfer which AER suggested would happen this week.

 

It's also beginning to happen at 30mb...

 

 

Certainly looks like things are lining up towards a different pattern as we approach January.

 

Heading straight north - good sign.

 

Big difference!

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Literally almost a total flip. Wow.

[gosaints]

Its a boring garbage pattern going forward.  Sure temps are colder but what are we gonna gain from it?  Its NW flow and seasonable

[Snowshoe]

Its a boring garbage pattern going forward. Sure temps are colder but what are we gonna gain from it? Its NW flow and seasonable

Ice. If I can't sled at least let me ice fish.

[gosaints]

Ice. If I can't sled at least let me ice fish.

Should be enough to get you that.  The beginning of the new year should do it for you.  End of the ensembles not as pretty

[Money]

Should be enough to get you that. The beginning of the new year should do it for you. End of the ensembles not as pretty

You're getting just as bad as the other two

[gosaints]

You're getting just as bad as the other two

Am I telling the truth?

[GDR]

You're getting just as bad as the other two

can someone ban this jokester?

[winterfreak]

Not seeing the full scale pattern change in the long range. Actually looks rather mild and boring.

[OKwx2k4]

Not seeing the full scale pattern change in the long range. Actually looks rather mild and boring.

It's possible that it could take til early-mid January to actually begin to bear fruit, so to speak.

[Geos]

Its a boring garbage pattern going forward.  Sure temps are colder but what are we gonna gain from it?  Its NW flow and seasonable

 

Clippers I guess. Maybe not better for your area, but better down this way. I wish everything could just slide more east, then these cutters could actually hook towards Quebec instead of western Ontario.

[Geos]

EURO showing that Scandinavian Ridge knifing into the North Pole in 6 days.

 

 

 

Gets attacked from the Russia side then.

 

[Geos]

Stepping down to more seasonable levels.

 

 

[Hckyplayer8]

Got 4" yesterday with 9" OTG.

 

Post Christmas storm shifted North on the Euro after the GFS abandoned the Northern precio look.

[Maxim]

pattern change looks transient, and barely brings below normal temps for much of the subforum... pretty sure we'll start torching hard again mid-Janaury. Trust me, we're going to feel the effects of this record breaking el nino for a while.

[Maxim]

You're getting just as bad as the other two

I always tell the truth. Can't lie when I say this pattern isn't going to change that easily. 

[OKwx2k4]

I always tell the truth. Can't lie when I say this pattern isn't going to change that easily.

High amplitude MJO phases 7-8, -AO and +PNA won't change the pattern?

[Geos]

pattern change looks transient, and barely brings below normal temps for much of the subforum... pretty sure we'll start torching hard again mid-Janaury. Trust me, we're going to feel the effects of this record breaking el nino for a while.

 

Very unlikely for any extended period of time with the polar vortex weakening now. In 3-4 weeks will be seasonable or below normal.

 

Very strong amount of warming taking place in eastern Asia right now and it's heading straight towards the polar regions.

 

[Tom]

I always tell the truth. Can't lie when I say this pattern isn't going to change that easily. 

What makes you think it isn't going to change???  You think we will be above normal to open January???

 

I just had to put this quote up...haha...quote from Tony Montana from the movie Scarface...

[Tom]

12z GEFS continue to torch NW NAMER as we open up January...lower 48 in the fridge...both EPS/GEFS tank the EPO with a jet cutting underneath into So Cal.

[OKwx2k4]

That's looking more like winter now buddy! :-)

[Geos]

That jet coming out Asia is crazy fast.

 

Can see the split jet easily on this map.

 

GEFS showing the polar blocking/-AO nicely.

 

 

+AO looks to give up about the 3rd/4th.

 

[Tom]

That jet coming out Asia is crazy fast.

 

Can see the split jet easily on this map.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122412/gfs_uv250_nhem_49.png

GEFS showing the polar blocking/-AO nicely.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122412/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png

 

+AO looks to give up about the 3rd/4th.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122412/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_43.png

 

It seems like all the models are trending towards a -AO pattern sometime during the first week of January and a sweet Split Flow pattern in the NE PAC.

 

 

pattern change looks transient, and barely brings below normal temps for much of the subforum... pretty sure we'll start torching hard again mid-Janaury. Trust me, we're going to feel the effects of this record breaking el nino for a while.

Doubtful...I don't see any indication of that happening as convection erupts in the central Pacific, PV is weakened, blocking over the Pole and the EPO tanking.  Way too many indicators on the table that would suggest otherwise.  IMO, wishful thinking.  I was about 10 days to early with the colder/stormier pattern evolving.  Oh well.  Nobody is perfect.

[gosaints]

Tanking epo + +pna. Oh exciting... Maybe if you like in the lake effect belts.. it will get colder but stormier?

[OKwx2k4]

It seems like all the models are trending towards a -AO pattern sometime during the first week of January and a sweet Split Flow pattern in the NE PAC.

 

 

 

 

Doubtful...I don't see any indication of that happening as convection erupts in the central Pacific, PV is weakened, blocking over the Pole and the EPO tanking. Way too many indicators on the table that would suggest otherwise. IMO, wishful thinking. I was about 10 days to early with the colder/stormier pattern evolving. Oh well. Nobody is perfect.

10 days is better than 20 days too early like I was. Ruined my December forecast by a large margin.