January 2016 in the PNW

[Deweydog]

A little back door abuse on the 00z long range.

[stuffradio]

What are you talking about?   The Canucks beat the Carolina Panthers in football?   Impressive feat!  

 

Of course not. What's football? We beat the Florida Panthers.

[TT-SEA]

A little back door abuse on the 00z long range.

 

 

This?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

Of course not. What's football? We beat the Florida Panthers.

 

 

OK.   

[Deweydog]

This?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif

A rex block in a season of rex blocks.

[stuffradio]

I wouldn't mind a truly average year for a change. Average temps, average precip, above normal snowfall.

 

What was it, 2010 or 2011 that we had to wait until May or something for our first > 70 days? I don't know if Komo still has the videos, but when Paul Deanno was a met there before he moved to San Francisco, he used to make really good videos for them. I'd wait for him to post those videos. I remember that year when he talked about an upcoming heatwave, because it had been so cold that year.

[TT-SEA]

240 hour Canadian... have to post it at least once a week.    It sure seems to have locked onto ridging in the last few runs.   We might see frost again!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Phil]

You said that the last two years as well... I clearly remember you saying it was going to blowtorch out there last summer and be much cooler here and we went out and had the warmest summer ever here.

You've been like Ted Cruz on steroids recently.

 

I never said anything like that. I predicted a warmer than average summer on both coasts with cooler anomalies in the Plains/Midwest.

 

Combination this year of 1942, 1958, 1992, 1998... maybe a little 1987 and 2003.

 

We might have some similarities to 1983 right now but that was a strange summer. The PDO shot up to insane levels that summer. That does not always mean warmth here. Something strange was happening that year and to expect it to play out like that again is probably not a good basis for a long-term forecast.

Talk about a slew of potential outcomes. If we transition into a La Niña, I think the forecast over the next 12-18 months will be easy, and you'll probably hate the outcome.

 

If intraseasonal instability dominates and we get up stuck in neutral as a result, it'll be a difficult forecast. In that case, analogs will need to rely on other constants like QBO & solar forcing, in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

You've been like Ted Cruz on steroids recently.

 

I never said anything like that. I predicted a warmer than average summer on both coasts with cooler anomalies in the Plains/Midwest.

 

 

Talk about a slew of potential outcomes. If we transition into a La Niña, I think the forecast over the next 12-18 months will be easy, and you'll probably hate the outcome.

 

If we end up stuck in neutral, it'll be a difficult forecast (QBO/Solar will be all the more important in the latter case).

 

 

I can go back and pull it up... but you were not all in for warm summers here the last two years.   

 

1973 crashed from Nino to Nina and it was a decent summer and fall here.   1998 did the same and it was a warm summer and fall.

 

I don't care about winter so much... its going to rain much of the time either way.   Strong Nino this winter and its been very wet.   Wettest December ever in some places.    Neutral winters seem to be the best here but I pretty much expect rain most of the winter with a Nina or a Nino and even a good deal of neutral winters.   A chance of genuine snow and cold is just a fun break from the rain in most winters.     

[Phil]

What are you thinking.

Assuming the westward propagation of the low-freq/stagnant forcing (La Niña/-AAM) is synchronized, then a warm June followed by a cool July and August. If we get stuck with destructive interference, then I don't know yet.

 

Either way, upper level flow looks relatively fast/zonal this summer.

[Phil]

I can go back and pull it up... but you were not all in for warm summers here the last two years.

 

1973 crashed from Nino to Nina and it was a decent summer and fall here. 1998 did the same and it was a warm summer and fall.

 

I don't care about winter so much... its going to rain much of the time either way. Strong Nino this winter and its been very wet. Wettest December ever in some places. Neutral winters seem to be the best here but I pretty much expect rain most of the winter with a Nina or a Nino and even a good deal of neutral winters. A chance of genuine snow and cold is just a fun break from the rain in most winters.

I wasn't forecasting a blowtorch summer, but my analog aggregates were warm on the coasts and cool over the heartland. I think I screwed up the July progression, if I'm remembering right.

 

I'll have my summer analogs ready in a month or so, but I can already tell that my forecast will look nothing like yours.

[Phil]

Not at all. I just thought it would be interesting going back and seeing what people were saying before the summers of 2014 and 2015.

 

Also see that Phil was saying last June that the Nino had peaked and would never get above moderate. Variables obviously changed. I was hoping he was right.

Actually, I added the caveat that the "moderate" prediction was based on constraints involving the QBO transition. A higher amplitude, rapidly downwelling westerly wave/tropopausal drop would feedback on H/W cell retraction and lead to a super niño.

[Phil]

Credit to Sam Lillo and Anthony Masiello on Twitter for these images.

 

Increased QBO amplitude was noted in the curve beginning in 2014-15 which continued into 2015-16. I expected a deamplification based on the length of previous amplitude spikes. This was a unique case and the increased QBO amplitude predicted the increased ENSO amplitude.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

February of 1983 was very wet here.   It rained the entire month.    Wall-to-wall rain.

 

All signs are pointing to this being a relatively dry February.   This February is starting to look like the opposite of 1983 here.

[Phil]

It's also true that 2014 and 2015 were nothing alike. The summer of 2014 was dominated by a 3-wave pattern over the WH, while 2015 was dominated by, well, a much higher wave number.

[Phil]

I was rooting against a La Niña for 2016-17. Now, I'm definitely rooting for it.

[TT-SEA]

Because analogs are supposed to fully synchronize with observations at all times, right?

 

Analogs can be used on intraseasonal, seasonal, and multiseasonal scales, and even when they're optimized for a particular purpose, there will be stark differences as time progresses.

 

Perfect.   You go with your 1983 analog but I will say local observations will more closely match the declining Nino years of 1958, 1992, 1998 during the summer and early fall.  

[TT-SEA]

That's exactly what happened, actually. Wavelengths were short, and your region underwent significant temperature swings.

 

 

Analogs are worthless if you don't know how to interpret them. I don't plan taking either of the aforementioned analogs verbatim.

 

 

The PDO/AAM integral will not crash abruptly this summer, but should decline relatively gradually. We'll have niño forcing raging again through most of March.

 

 

We really cannot have more stable warmth than we had last summer.    92% of the days from June - August were above normal at SEA.     And the few days that were below normal were -1 or -2.   

 

It was exactly opposite of what you are describing for Seattle and Portland and Vancouver BC.     We normally do have big temperature swings in the summer with flow reversals.   Last summer was about as anti-swing as it gets around here. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

small potential here... 

 

 

[Tyler Mode]

Wettest January in my short time here in BG.  6 years.  6.87" as of now.  

It will also end as my warmest average low temp.  36.3 as of this morning, and the previous high was 34.9 last year.  This after starting the month with 11 days in a row below 32.

It'll be interesting to see what February brings.  For now it's looking mild.

[Timmy]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow24.84.0000.gif

[Tyler Mode]

After a dreary start, the day is turning sunny.  Nice sheer in the atmosphere is clearly visible by low cloud surface movement. 

 

47 degrees.

[Timmy]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/or_snow48.108.0000.gif

[Timmy]

Euro is cooler too for early next week... NWS is sure taking their sweet time on the AFD for PDX too.

[epiceast]

Snowing here, somewhat surprising as 850mb temps were above freezing an hour ago

[Jesse]

Snowing here, somewhat surprising as 850mb temps were above freezing an hour ago

Pullman is a good spot.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is really nice.    Love this pattern in February now that we are getting past the inversion season.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016012912!!chart.gif

[Jesse]

12z Euro looking chilly up through day 10.

[Timmy]

12Z ECMWF is really nice.    Love this pattern in February now that we are getting past the inversion season.

 

 

looks cool and dry, maybe even cold for us in the pdx area

[Jesse]

looks cool and dry, maybe even cold for us in the pdx area

That secondary cool shot days 9-10 looks chilly.

 

We'll see if the models keep digging energy around the west side of the ridge or eventually show it building directly overhead instead.

[Phil]

Perfect. You go with your 1983 analog but I will say local observations will more closely match the declining Nino years of 1958, 1992, 1998 during the summer and early fall.

I never said I was relying on 1983 as an analog.

 

Try again.

[Phil]

We really cannot have more stable warmth than we had last summer. 92% of the days from June - August were above normal at SEA. And the few days that were below normal were -1 or -2.

 

It was exactly opposite of what you are describing for Seattle and Portland and Vancouver BC. We normally do have big temperature swings in the summer with flow reversals. Last summer was about as anti-swing as it gets around here.

According to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the NW US experienced significant sub-monthly variability in temperatures and streamflow aloft, to a higher extent than the rest of the country.

 

I'm looking at the region as a whole.

[Jesse]

According to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the NW US experienced significant sub-monthly variability in temperatures and streamflow aloft, to a higher extent than the rest of the country.

 

I'm looking at the region as a whole.

 

Yeah, I remember last summer's 500mb pattern actually being fairly variable. Sure it worked out in such a way that it translated to warmth more often than not. But temperature anomaly variability and 500mb pattern variability are not always in lockstep.

[Jesse]

Lots of showers moving onshore now.

 

Time for the Cascades to make up for the couple inches of snowpack they lost the last few days, and then some.

[TT-SEA]

I never said I was relying on 1983 as an analog.

 

Try again.

 

 

If you are making a forecast specifically on this forum for this group then you need to consider the tangible weather in the region most of us live... the western lowlands from Vancouver BC to Eugene OR.

 

Last summer is a good example... whatever your reanalysis is showing is not meaningful to the results on the ground because we had the most consistently warm summer in history.   The complete opposite of big temperature swings.   

 

I think you broadbrush our entire section of the country or maybe the continent.     Which fine for big picture stuff and that is where you thrive.     But your high-level forecasts for us might not take into account the unique nature of our climate here.

[Weather101]

If you are making a forecast specifically on this forum for this group then you need to consider the tangible weather in the region most of us live... the western lowlands from Vancouver BC to Eugene OR.

 

Last summer is a good example... whatever your reanalysis is showing is not meaningful to the results on the ground because we had the most consistently warm summer in history. The complete opposite of big temperature swings.

 

I think you broadbrush our entire section of the country or maybe the continent. Which fine for big picture stuff and that is where you thrive. But your high-level forecasts for us might not take into account the unique nature of our climate here.

It was hot in Vancouver BC last summer...Too hot

[Jesse]

It was hot in Vancouver BC last summer...Too hot

 

Yeah, hoping we won't have to experience another summer like that for at least a decade or so.

[Phil]

If you are making a forecast specifically on this forum for this group then you need to consider the tangible weather in the region most of us live... the western lowlands from Vancouver BC to Eugene OR.

 

Last summer is a good example... whatever your reanalysis is showing is not meaningful to the results on the ground because we had the most consistently warm summer in history. The complete opposite of big temperature swings.

 

I think you broadbrush our entire section of the country or maybe the continent. Which fine for big picture stuff and that is where you thrive. But your high-level forecasts for us might not take into account the unique nature of our climate here.

My forecast was for the region as a whole. I didn't make any SEA/PDX/TT-SEA specific predictions. I don't forecast below the synoptic scale.

[TT-SEA]

My forecast was for the region as a whole. I didn't make any SEA/PDX/TT-SEA specific predictions. I don't forecast below the synoptic scale.

 

 

Well then people on this forum might not be too impressed with your forecasts.     Last summer was the warmest ever and the most consistently warm summer ever and you are saying your forecast was correct with big temperature swings.   Just not what actually happened.    

[Phil]

Well then people on this forum might not be too impressed with your forecasts. Last summer was the warmest ever and the most consistently warm summer ever and you are saying your forecast was correct with big temperature swings. Just not what actually happened.

I make large scale predictions, and those predictions were generally accurate last summer. I'm not good at forecasting microclimactic behavior and mesoscale interactions. I'm sure you're smart enough to decipher the implications of my predictions, though.

 

Outside the general core-curriculum surrounding my (soon to be completed) initial degree in Atmospheric Science, my schooling and research has been focused on seasonal forecasting and climate change/physics, with particular emphasis on interdecadal/decadal forecasting in the 3-15 year range. That's my area of interest, and I tend to have most of my successes there.

 

Essentially, I specialize in forecasting on seasonal to decadal timescales, and I'm improving at forecasting on a 2-6 week resolution, though it's proving difficult. However, anything inside that range is well out of my ballpark.