1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[Geos]

RGEM coming further west.

 

[hlcater]

[Geos]

 

You can flip through the rest of the maps, but beyond 48 hours the resolution/accuracy gets pretty crappy.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[FV-Mike]

LOT's afternoon AFD

 

ITS STILL APPEARING THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS TRANSITION LIKELY
OCCURRING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE FINISHING TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY WITH ALL SNOW THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL
AREAS LATER THAT EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE
WITH EXACT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WHERE IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW FORCING/PRECIP WILL BE LACKING AND WHERE
THE BETTER FORCING WILL RESIDE...OVER NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT FORCING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE FOR
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO PROVIDE SOME STEADY SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EXITS. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT THIS TIME AM FORECAST ONE TO
THREE INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING
TOTALS MORE IN THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE...OVER EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS PERIOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE EARLIER COLD TREND PERSISTS.

[Tom]

18z RGEM...looking better for OKC...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016010718/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

[Tony]

18z GFS not even worth looking at for this storm

[Tony]

Some thoughts on this developing storm from Springfield MO NWS

 

4. While model solutions have shown some convergence, consistency
still remains somewhat poor. For example, the 15Z SREF point
plumes show a significant spread in snowfall amounts. For
Springfield, amounts range from no snow accumulation up to around
10". Quite the spread!

5. The parent short wave trough will eventually phase with a
northern stream trough later this weekend. Models often struggle
with phasing energy...thus changes in the forecast structure and
track of this storm system remain likely.

With all of that being said, the operational ECMWF, Canadian, and
NAM models all indicate a quickly maturing low pressure system
with a wrap-around/TROWAL signature. The operational GFS is
somewhat of an outlier with a more open wave. Additionally, SLU
CIPS analog guidance indicates a pretty good signal for
accumulating snow with this setup. We have therefore nudged the
forecast in the direction of the model consensus.
 

[ChiTownWeather]

Bernie Rayno posts some great videos with his thoughts on storms. Here is his latest video for this storm, very informative: http://bit.ly/1TIa36Y

[OKwx2k4]

18z RGEM...looking better for OKC...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016010718/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

That's awesome. One more little touch east will be perfect.

[Maxim]

lol no comments on the 18z GFS.

[Maxim]

not too surprising though, that 1032 high is going to do some damage.

[Tom]

12z Euro Para...

[Geos]

Didn't think I'd say this, but I hope the EURO solutions pan out for once!

[Geos]

Bernie Rayno posts some great videos with his thoughts on storms. Here is his latest video for this storm, very informative: http://bit.ly/1TIa36Y

 

I'm really liking his take on it!

[Tom]

Any thoughts on what to expect from tonight's 00z runs?  Models should be digesting some better data tonight...still think that we will know more by tomorrow's 12z runs as the system should start developing in the TX/OK region.

[Geos]

I think the NAM will hold the track position and not turn into the GFS! lol

[Tom]

00z NAM...threading the needle...but I'll take it...

[Money]

First wave acts like a block and keeps the system farther south

 

Cold sector precip is better this run and a 3-5 inch snow band in Chicago and western MI

[Tom]

The snow band is getting better looking on the NAM from previous 4 runs.  I guess that is a good sign.

[Tom]

According to the 00z NAM, it snows for about a 10 hr period in NE IL...there may even be a period of Lake Enhancement if 850's are cold enough.  Nice long fetch down the Lake once SLP is in IN.

[gosaints]

According to the 00z NAM, it snows for about a 10 hr period in NE IL...there may even be a period of Lake Enhancement if 850's are cold enough. Nice long fetch down the Lake once SLP is in IN.

Very wierd that models still seem to transfer energy towards the coast. Seems to be stealing some of the thunder.

[Geos]

I'll take the 3". The band might keep on widening out from here. The 18z run might end up being the bottom of the barrel, and will bounce up from here.

 

Pick your snow map.

 

 

[Geos]

According to the 00z NAM, it snows for about a 10 hr period in NE IL...there may even be a period of Lake Enhancement if 850's are cold enough.  Nice long fetch down the Lake once SLP is in IN.

 

I'm going to see if that's in the cards in a minute.

 

---

 

Yeah I think just after 48 hours there is a chance. There is a big pool of 44° waters out over the lake still, so 6°C. The minimum change between the water temperature and the 850mb level in order to get lake enhanced snow is about 12°C.

In this sounding you can see the 850mb level is around -7°, -8° (taken just offshore of Highland Park). Yeah 13-14° delta Ts would be enough. It would shut off once those NE winds quite blowing at cloud level.

 

 

 

 

 

[Money]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016010800/I_nw_EST_2016010800_046.png

[Money]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016010800/I_nw_EST_2016010800_048.png

 

RGEM

[gosaints]

Lol.rgem hello madison....

[Money]

Guessing it has a better phase and allows more precip in the cold sector

 

The low doesn't look that much farther north or west. 

[Geos]

Extrapolate this.

 

OKwx is really close.

 

[winterfreak]

Even I'm close with the RGEM.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm at about 1-1.5 according to the GEM above.

[Tom]

It's too bad this storm isn't really heading towards its full potential.  Dang phase not happening quick enough.

[Tom]

I think folks south of I-80 will get the heaviest snowfall and in NW IN/W MI...unless this storm surprises us later tomorrow.

[Money]

I think folks south of I-80 will get the heaviest snowfall and in NW IN/W MI...unless this storm surprises us later tomorrow.

Think you're wrong Tom

 

Really liking STL-ORD into western MI

[Money]

Models always have trouble with storms that phase like this and I still think there's some surprises with this system

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Think you're wrong Tom

 

Really liking STL-ORD into western MI

 

GFS says no, at least for ORD.  Heck, I think I might get more than Geos on that run, as there are some lighter snows or snow/rain mix being indicated on 0z GFS for Wisconsin during the day on Saturday not associated with the main slug of moisture.

[Money]

GFS says no, at least for ORD. Heck, I think I might get more than Geos on that run, as there are some lighter snows or snow/rain mix being indicated on 0z GFS for Wisconsin during the day on Saturday not associated with the main slug of moisture.

It's very close and better than 18z but I also don't think gfs is best model for these type of systems

 

NAM/RGEM and hi res models are the way to go

[Tom]

Think you're wrong Tom

 

Really liking STL-ORD into western MI

If the Lake gets involved, that could be a different story around here.  Won't know till later tomorrow once the high rez models get a better handle on this system and the amount of colder air involved.

[Geos]

An analog for this system is 1/5/14. http://www.weather.gov/lot/2014Jan45_snow

Got a feeling the GEM and EURO will be a tad stronger.

[Money]

Ukie gets the low down to 988 in Indiana at hr 60

[Tom]

An analog for this system is 1/5/14. http://www.weather.gov/lot/2014Jan45_snow

Got a feeling the GEM and EURO will be a tad stronger.

Would be real nice to see if we can get some lake enhancement.  Low level winds are off the lake for a good 8-12 hour period.