gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Rgem looks awesome for Chicago and MilwaukeeChicago stil looks good on the rgem. Milwaukee cut back from previous runs. Adjusted towards other guidance a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Last day, day and a half trends were east on both Nov 20-21st, and Dec 28-29th systems..Iowa is out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 4km is better http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010812/nam4km_asnow_ncus_16.png I could def see some pretty intense banding with this sytstem. There are clear signs of that happening. Wow, is there not going to be any tail-end wrap around?? Usually there is with these winding up phase storms, yet some of these maps give zilch to SEMI for example. Not picking that up very well or what? Lehs off of Lk. Michigan should through snow further east if nothing else. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 06z RGEM...still snowing... That cut off is extreme! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 4km is better Weird look to the band. Looks like someone sliced it and slid the top half to the east slightly. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Hopefully the GFS isnt going for the win... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 The H over SD rules iowa out Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs the weakest out all models that I've seen. Probably average out the amounts and band position and run with it. This winter does favor a stronger solution. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs the weakest out all models that I've seen. Probably average out the amounts and band position and run with it. This winter does favor a stronger solution.Well that and the GEOS snow magnet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well that and the GEOS snow magnetI think Tom might get a top amount out of this. I feel I will be on the north edge of higher amounts. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think Tom might get a top amount out of this. I feel I will be on the north edge of higher amounts.Ya.... I like notre dame... and somewhere in Missouri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Ya.... I like notre dame... and somewhere in Missouri South Bend - probably not. I don't think the cold air will get that far east personally. I think NW IN will do pretty good, but west of Michigan City. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Geo's, how do Lehs parameters look like? Still on the table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 South Bend - probably not. I don't think the cold air will get that far east personally. I think NW IN will do pretty good, but west of Michigan City.You are riding the NW hard GEOS. Even the NW models have trended the other way in regards to snow totals. You very well could be right I just dont see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 How does the 12z GGEM look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 How does the 12z GGEM look?Shifted heaviest band south some but still good for you. Southern LOT has the best totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I figured south of I-80/88 will get the highest totals out of this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I figured south of I-80/88 will get the highest totals out of this one.obviously can rule out a better phase happening but probably right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 looks good for you and me Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Lot's can still happen with this storm so can't rule anyting out just yet. Have to watch the hi-res models as they start to hone in on the storm. South of us looks golden as that is where the higher qpf will be but I would not rule out NW burbs just yet as it depends where the defo band sets up. That area could see some very heavy snow rates for a few hours. Fun storm to track for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Geo's, how do Lehs parameters look like? Still on the table? On the NAM - yeah. 39-45 hours would be the prime time for IL. 42-45 hours especially. GFS is all NW Indiana, unless you're south of loop maybe. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 You are riding the NW hard GEOS. Even the NW models have trended the other way in regards to snow totals. You very well could be right I just dont see it. I've seen too many NW shifts in all my days of model watching. These type of system like to aim the heaviest snow band right into the southern end of lake MI. Beginning to think that under favorable conditions the NE winds off the water, helps the deformation band in some way.I would pick Gary or just SW of there for the heaviest total in a 100 mile radius of here.Could be an exception with this storm that is bypasses the end of the lake, but I kind of doubt it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 You are riding the NW hard GEOS. Even the NW models have trended the other way in regards to snow totals. You very well could be right I just dont see it. For those of us in SMI, Indy actually has good ideas this morn's AFD. Always good news when those well south of yby are expecting a quick transition to SN. Last minute trends have gone slightly (50-150 miles) SE wrt bigger events this season. Why would that chg now? Dec 28 was no slouch storm. KIND AFD: FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT ASPROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE RAPIDLYDEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED THETRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW MODELRUNS...WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN A BIT FASTER. ECMWF/NAM/OP GFS ALLTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER MOVING NORTHEASTTO LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THEOTHER TWO MODELS DUE TO A SLOWER PHASING WITH THE POLAR ENERGY.INTERESTINGLY...A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE EVENFURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAN THE OP MODELSDUE TO THE DELAYED PHASE...INDICATING THAT THE SOUTHEAST SHIFT MAYNOT BE DONE YET. THE GGEM ON THE OTHER HAND PHASES MUCH FASTER THANTHE CONSENSUS AND HAS A TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER PHASING STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED EVENAT 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT...PLAN ON TRENDING TOWARDS THE OPERATIONALCONSENSUS TRACK NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME WITH A SUBTLE LEANTOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL BRING THECOLDER AIR IN A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAINMIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY BYLATE EVENING...TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREATHROUGH THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHESTSNOWFALL IN AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHEAST INTO LOWERMICHIGAN...BUT KEEP SHIFTING THE HEAVIER BAND EVER SO SLIGHTLYEASTWARD. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR MUCH OFTHE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT REMAINCONSERVATIVE ON AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOSTOF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHERAMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOWEARLIEST. ANY FURTHER SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOWTRACK WOULD DRAW COLDER AIR IN FASTER AND SUPPORT MORE SNOW. STAYTUNED AS MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL FINE TUNE THEDETAILS FURTHER Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I just did some quick ball park measuring of how far things have shifted since the last run and the models we talk about on here have moved 25-50 miles respectively. NAM, GFS moved the least, GGEM moved the most. Could easily swing back some. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I've seen too many NW shifts in all my days of model watching. These type of system like to aim the heaviest snow band right into the southern end of lake MI. Beginning to think that under favorable conditions the NE winds off the water, helps the deformation band in some way.I would pick Gary or just SW of there for the heaviest total in a 100 mile radius of here.Could be an exception with this storm that is bypasses the end of the lake, but I kind of doubt it. GFS/GEFS have a pretty good handle on placement imo - just need to bump up actual totals for everybody, and fill in the edges stronger too. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Bernie is thinking the ULL moving in from the NW will build the snow back west still.I think the GFS is too weak. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/4100815092001/snow-rapid-freeze-to-cause-delays-from-st-louis-to-chicago?autoStart=true Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Sure is a lot of energy with this storm. I did watch the video and not bad for the most part. I still think the track is too far east only because I believe there will be a better interaction/phase with the northern and southern streams which will track our storm farther NW and the models will begin to latch onto this. I don't see how there cannot be better interaction with the two streams. I could be way off on this but this is my thinking for now. If I am wrong so be it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Sure is a lot of energy with this storm. I did watch the video and not bad for the most part. I still think the track is too far east only because I believe there will be a better interaction/phase with the northern and southern streams which will track our storm farther NW and the models will begin to latch onto this. I don't see how there cannot be better interaction with the two streams. I could be way off on this but this is my thinking for now. If I am wrong so be it. Watching where the baroclinic zone and the freezing line progress in the morning will be key. Been noticing the models went too low with temps over the region. It indicate the low might cut further west than depicted. (Today's low, not tomorrow's.) Edit:Interesting to see that the ensembles from the RGEM & GGEM want to pull today's low further west... That would impact the baroclinic zone tomorrow.They want to go into WI instead of NE IL now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Bernie is thinking the ULL moving in from the NW will build the snow back west still.I think the GFS is too weak. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/4100815092001/snow-rapid-freeze-to-cause-delays-from-st-louis-to-chicago?autoStart=trueSure is a lot of energy with this storm. I did watch the video and not bad for the most part. I still think the track is too far east only because I believe there will be a better interaction/phase with the northern and southern streams which will track our storm farther NW and the models will begin to latch onto this. I don't see how there cannot be better interaction with the two streams. I could be way off on this but this is my thinking for now. If I am wrong so be it. LOLz ;-) I can see I'm in a tug-o-war with the rope strung across Lk. Michigan. You two (plus Tom) currently have me out-numbered. I'll round me up some re-enforcements, standby for news.. Still - great fun to be tracking another powerful winter storm for our region! Good Luck to y'all Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 LOLz ;-) I can see I'm in a tug-o-war with the rope strung across Lk. Michigan. You two (plus Tom) currently have me out-numbered. I'll round me up some re-enforcements, standby for news.. Still - great fun to be tracking another powerful winter storm for our region! Good Luck to y'all I think your fine where you're at. You'll get the lake effect anyways. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 GEOS RAP south weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 looks good for you and me Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 NAM looks like it will hold its track early on quite a bit weaker however Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Models could be doing there 24 hours ahead of time fluky runs. If more models come in weaker, then it's probably safe to say there's a weakening trend for sure. Not a total bust. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Actually the 4km NAM is showing that lake enhancement pretty nicely. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Right now I am getting a steady rain with the temp at 37° and yes there is still a good bit of the sleet/ice left yet, And now (drum roll please) here is the Short term AFD from GRR SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ENHANCED AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT WITH GENERAL 6 TO LOCAL 9 INCH ACCUMS EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...SFC LOW TRACKS FROM QUAD CITIES AREA THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH DRY SLOT EDGING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTS IN SFC CYCLOGENSIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH RACES NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LEADING EDGE OF RAIN ENTERING SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. STRONG UVVS COULD HELP COOL THE COLUMN AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CWA WHERE CHANGEOVER IS PROGGED TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT COULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 and now the long term LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE THAT COULD CREATE MEDIUM TO HIGH IMPACTS FOR THE W/NW PORTION OF THE CWFA. MODELS HAVE BEEN LOCKED ON TO A STRONG JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NW. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK EARLY MON WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD. SNOW WILL RAMP UP LATE IN THE DAY WITH SW FLOW AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PATTERNS WITH THE SW FLOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT FAIRLY LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW RATES CENTERED ON MON NIGHT ALONG MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE AND NW COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE UPPER JET CORE STILL SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT GOING. WE ARE EXPECTING THE MEAN 1000- 850MB FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE NW...FAVORING THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE CWFA. THE TREND FOR ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT IS INCREASING FOR THE WED NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH DELTA T/S IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DIMINISHES A LITTLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPS LOOK TO MODIFY A LITTLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS NORTH A BIT. WE WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE JET THAT SHORT WAVES WILL BE PRONE TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE AREA MORE SNOW CHCS. We will see how this all plays out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Actually the 4km NAM is showing that lake enhancement pretty nicely. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160108/18Z/f48/acckucherasnowmw.pngMy south bend is looking better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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