GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[jcwxguy]

168, taking longer to load then normal

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/12Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png

[Tony]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

Looks a little stronger, maybe south as well

[Geos]

The high is attempting to banana out around the low.

 

[Tony]

The low over Hudson Bay is further south this run. Going to stay the same I think - or even close to the GGEM. Look where the baroclinic zone is cutting into central IN.

Yep,  baro zone is farther south of last run..good signs

[Money]

Yep, baro zone is farther south of last run..good signs

N il is gonna have a tough time getting snow imo

 

No snow cover, wide open gulf etc

[Money]

984 over Green Bay at hr 168

[gosaints]

N il is gonna have a tough time getting snow imo

 

No snow cover, wide open gulf etc

Thats a bomb at 168..

[Geos]

N il is gonna have a tough time getting snow imo

 

No snow cover, wide open gulf etc

 

There is still snow cover here.

[jcwxguy]

cuts well north of Chicago 

[Money]

168

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/12Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png

[Money]

850 MB at HR 168

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/12Z/f168/850mbtempsconus.png

[gabel23]

cuts well north of Chicago 

What's it look like for us? I can't see your maps! 

[Money]

There is still snow cover here.

 

Temp's in the 40-50's and rain a couple days before the system is going to wash that away imo 

[Geos]

That's really weird it goes almost straight north from St. Louis. Looks like it starts to occlude before 168 hours.

[Geos]

Temp's in the 40-50's and rain a couple days before the system is going to wash that away imo 

 

If the GFS and GGEM have a handle on temps, they won't get any warmer than 40°. 

[Tony]

That's really weird it goes almost straight north from St. Louis. Looks like it starts to occlude before 168 hours.

Good news is it started out farther south and a little more digging. Step in the right direction I have to say

[jcwxguy]

.http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/output_HpQ4HW_zpsjzoh52hy.gif

[jcwxguy]

What's it look like for us? I can't see your maps! 

refresh my friend

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188
 

                                            12Z JAN27

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

WED 12Z 27-JAN  -5.0    -1.8    1024      79      24    0.00     560     541    
 

MON 12Z 01-FEB  -0.9    -3.7    1013      80      65    0.00     547     536    

MON 18Z 01-FEB   1.8    -4.1    1015      72      68    0.00     547     534    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -0.3    -4.7    1016      74      94    0.02     547     534    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -3.2    -6.1    1015      63      99    0.02     545     533    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.8    -7.7    1009      79     100    0.19     539     531    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -7.5            1005      83      99    0.36     529     524    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -7.7   -11.3    1007      80      98    0.22     525     520    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.8   -13.2    1011      75      92    0.04     527     518    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.1   -12.4    1014      70      81    0.00     529     518    
 
 
 
 

 

[Geos]

Good news is it started out farther south and a little more digging. Step in the right direction I have to say

 

It is good. I think at least will get a front end thump of snow. A slightly different trajectory and the low goes over MI instead. 

I suspect the ensembles mean will show something like that.

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444
 

                                            12Z JAN27

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -3.2    -8.1    1017      67      73    0.00     544     531    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.9    -9.2    1013      71      88    0.06     538     528    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -7.8            1009      75      92    0.23     531     524    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -8.3   -11.7    1009      76      99    0.16     527     520    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.9   -12.6    1011      71      86    0.03     527     519    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.0   -12.3    1014      68      75    0.00     529     518    
 
 
 

 

 

[Money]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN27                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK WED 12Z 27-JAN  -5.0    -1.8    1024      79      24    0.00     560     541    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -0.9    -3.7    1013      80      65    0.00     547     536    MON 18Z 01-FEB   1.8    -4.1    1015      72      68    0.00     547     534    TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -0.3    -4.7    1016      74      94    0.02     547     534    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -3.2    -6.1    1015      63      99    0.02     545     533    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.8    -7.7    1009      79     100    0.19     539     531    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -7.5            1005      83      99    0.36     529     524    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -7.7   -11.3    1007      80      98    0.22     525     520    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.8   -13.2    1011      75      92    0.04     527     518    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.1   -12.4    1014      70      81    0.00     529     518                                              

 

Some really good ratios for you guys with -10 to -12 850 temps and 2m temps around 24-25 with almost .8 qpf

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981
 

                                            12Z JAN27

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.0    -4.5    1016      71      83    0.01     547     534    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -3.9    -4.9    1015      67      99    0.01     546     533    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.0    -7.2    1010      79      99    0.16     541     533    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -6.9            1003      88      99    0.50     529     527    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -6.7   -12.1    1003      84     100    0.40     522     520    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.7   -15.2    1008      79      96    0.09     524     518    

WED 12Z 03-FEB -10.4   -13.2    1013      75      87    0.01     527     517    
 
 
 
 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

yuck don't move anymore south or east. We're still good this run on the Euro and the other runs but it looks like a close cutoff further west. I just want a 12" storm. Haven't had one since the Christmas storm of '09. Saw we haven't been in a blizzard watch for something like 1150 days either.

[Money]

jcw what does it show for kosh?

[jcwxguy]

dry air issue for lincoln,, less issue for omaha this run, thus they  have higher amounts 

[jcwxguy]

jcw what does it show for kosh?

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807                                            12Z JAN27                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.9    -6.5    1015      92      90    0.00     550     537    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -2.1            1008      91      99    0.13     547     541    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -2.2    -2.3     993      88      91    0.54     537     542    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -1.5    -1.7     987      94      79    0.14     521     532    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -2.9    -9.4     985      87      98    0.12     512     524    WED 18Z 03-FEB  -6.4   -12.2     994      79      94    0.11     516     521    THU 00Z 04-FEB  -9.1   -18.5    1005      70     100    0.02     518     514    THU 06Z 04-FEB -11.8   -19.9    1011      77      87    0.00     521     513    THU 12Z 04-FEB -13.1   -15.8    1016      77      87    0.00     524     511    

[Money]

Over 1.1 qpf here and has 850's and 2m below zero

 

Not bad

[gabel23]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444                                            12Z JAN27                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK     TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -3.2    -8.1    1017      67      73    0.00     544     531    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.9    -9.2    1013      71      88    0.06     538     528    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -7.8            1009      75      92    0.23     531     524    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -8.3   -11.7    1009      76      99    0.16     527     520    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.9   -12.6    1011      71      86    0.03     527     519    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.0   -12.3    1014      68      75    0.00     529     518    

Yikes that's way less QPF, should have good ratios with temps that low but man no more shifting please! 

[hlcater]

That euro bomb. Anyone got a wax bell map?

[hlcater]

JC, CID?

[Hawkeye]

This was a strange Euro run.  It takes the low nearly due north and then even back west a bit well into Iowa.  It's like the upper low captures the surface low and yanks it back.  This would be the worst case for southeast Iowa.

[jcwxguy]

JC, CID?

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CID    LAT=  41.88 LON=  -91.70 ELE=   869                                            12Z JAN27                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK   TUE 00Z 02-FEB   1.6    -2.4    1015      83      99    0.01     551     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.5    -2.8    1014      89      97    0.02     551     540    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.1    -1.6    1005      86     100    0.13     547     543    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.7             991      93      82    0.48     540     547    WED 00Z 03-FEB   2.7    -4.3     985      91      24    0.29     520     532    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -2.0    -6.8     984      91      99    0.03     514     527    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -8.8   -13.4     999      79      91    0.04     518     519    WED 18Z 03-FEB  -8.9   -18.3    1009      69     100    0.01     522     516    THU 00Z 04-FEB -11.3   -12.6    1016      70      68    0.01     528     516    THU 06Z 04-FEB -12.0   -12.5    1021      71      61    0.00     530     514    THU 12Z 04-FEB -13.5   -12.7    1024      73      61    0.00     530     511    

[NEJeremy]

dry air issue for lincoln,, less issue for omaha this run, thus they  have higher amounts 

ok, I was worried the low was too far southeast so we were getting in on the western edge of the deformation band, but it sounds like the precip is far enough back just the dry air to worry about now. Can't complain about 1.18" of qpf with probably pretty high ratios too. Jim said the GFS also shows thundersnow!

[jcwxguy]

keeps missing 850 temp at a certain time 

[Jaycee]

dry air issue for lincoln,, less issue for omaha this run, thus they  have higher amounts 

Too close to the main LP, per usual. However the shifting is far from done, so give me dry air now and I won't care. EURO still spits out 16"+ for Omaha and over a foot for us. Can't complain. 

[Money]

What is the euro on? That run is very, very odd looking.

Odd cuz it showed rain for you?

[Geos]

I wish there was EURO maps every 6 hours that were posted free. Like to see the evolution between 144 and 168.

[hlcater]

No, that back track west is very strange.

[Geos]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CID    LAT=  41.88 LON=  -91.70 ELE=   869                                            12Z JAN27                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK   TUE 00Z 02-FEB   1.6    -2.4    1015      83      99    0.01     551     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.5    -2.8    1014      89      97    0.02     551     540    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.1    -1.6    1005      86     100    0.13     547     543    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.7             991      93      82    0.48     540     547    WED 00Z 03-FEB   2.7    -4.3     985      91      24    0.29     520     532    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -2.0    -6.8     984      91      99    0.03     514     527    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -8.8   -13.4     999      79      91    0.04     518     519    WED 18Z 03-FEB  -8.9   -18.3    1009      69     100    0.01     522     516    THU 00Z 04-FEB -11.3   -12.6    1016      70      68    0.01     528     516    THU 06Z 04-FEB -12.0   -12.5    1021      71      61    0.00     530     514    THU 12Z 04-FEB -13.5   -12.7    1024      73      61    0.00     530     511    

 

Lol, what's up with the missing data.

 

It's very close for you NWLinn. Weird that the Surface temp goes up as the 850 mb levels start to plummet.