GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[GDR]

[Geos]

I really don't want it anymore SE. It would compromise all of our totals except IA and Chicago. It also means a weaker system overall, generally speaking. I think it's time us out here and Iowa get our own GHD Blizzard, Chicago has had theirs already! 

 

 

Orrrrrr this thing should just turn into a bowling ball and hit all of us, that'd be nice

 

We can both have ours at the same time. 

I don't think Nebraska will get missed. I think the track through OK is pretty high right now. East of Tulsa is where it gets iffy.

[Guest Snowball]

Thomas9824, thanks but I don't want to pay for it!

[Tom]

http://weather2020.com/most-likely-track-for-the-major-winter-storm/ garys discussion

Nobody will be able to see that unless they have paid for a membership...I'll post it below...

 

 

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

We are just four to five days past the massive snowstorm that hit New York City south to Washington D.C. They are still digging out from that historic storm system.  We are now around six days away from another likely massive major snowstorm, but this time it is targeting the central plains and southern Rocky Mountain States, and then northeast into parts of the Great Lakes and upper midwest states.  Weather2020 made a very accurate prediction for the big eastern storm 12 weeks before it hit, and we also made the forecast for this storm to become a major winters storm as well, also 12 weeks ago. A strong storm has occurred in each of the first two LRC cycles, and we are currently in LRC Cycle 3.  The models are now trending farther south, and we favor a track that is similar to the one in the previous cycle.  Take a look at this map below:

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2-11.gif

This is a forecast map valid at 168 hours from the 06z GFS model run. The L plotted in the middle is the forecast position of the upper low on this current model run. The L plotted on the Nebraska border is the forecast from yesterday morning’s GFS model run, and the L plotted southeast of Kansas City is right on the track from the last LRC cycle in mid-December. If it takes this farther south track, and I am still just as confident as I have been in the past few days that it will likely take that farther south track, then the snow storm will shift to right over Kansas City. As usual, just a little change in the track will decide whether you are in the snowstorm or not.

Okay, I will leave it at this today as I have to get to a meeting. A big warming trend picks up steam across the plains today. Have a great Wednesday. We will continue our discussion in the comments section. Thank you for participating in the LRC Forecast Experience Blog!

[Geos]

I just rolled through the last 4 runs of the Euro and stopped it at 18z Tue and noticed a fascinating development with the jet stream.  4 runs ago the jet was a lot flatter compared to its current run and kept digging the trough each run deeper into the 4 corners and TX.

 

For all intents and purposes, here's what I am seeing and it makes logical sense in the trends of jet stream on the Euro if you consider the fact that there is a screaming speed max in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Think about the physics involved for a minute.  The amount of momentum this speed max is generating would "force" the jet farther east in the direction it is heading until the road block upstream (weak SE ridge) allows it to turn north.  The Euro is increasing the amount of energy aloft in each run and carving out a deeper trough down near the Gulf which will more than likely spawn a possible tornado outbreak.

 

Check out the 12z Euro run today and compare it to last night's 00z run.  Notice last night there was a blip of yellow in E TX at HR 162.  Today, notice that same jet @ HR 150 is farther east into AR/MS and much stronger.  So, if tonight's run ends up showing a stronger speed max in the jet within this general region, I won't be surprised if it shifted the track. 

 

Lastly, notice the much better phasing of the northern/southern streams right over the Midwest.  Much better looking than last night's run.  Wow, could I have gone a bit more technical????

 

Heaviest snows will be under the nose of jet. Was just going through and looking for jet stream patterns from GHDB I and II.

 

Jet stream differences on the GFS today.

 

 

[Money]

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Seriously!? already

 

I already have been rarely tuning into TWC for the last several years.  Now I will be forever avoiding tuning into that channel.  Not worth it to give them any TV ratings.

[Jaycee]

00z runs will be crucial tonight. I think it will truly show the direction of this thing. However, we all know, last minute, this thing is going to shift.

[Stormgeek]

This far out the models are obviously going to change, but man have they been pretty consistent. This "looks" (if that is even possible this far out) like a storm that dumps a bunch of snow in southern MN and then has a pretty tight gradient to the north and west (about where I am located).

[Geos]

The TWC snowfall map is from 2/1/14. Someone pointed it out on AMWX.

 

https://anthonypeoples.wordpress.com/2014/02/01/snow-scare-tactics-forecasting/

[Jaycee]

The TWC snowfall map is from 2/1/14. Someone pointed it out on AMWX.

 

https://anthonypeoples.wordpress.com/2014/02/01/snow-scare-tactics-forecasting/

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/my-bad.gif

 

Guess that's what I get for trusting a FB user on Flowers page.

[Tom]

DGEX...holding steady...lol

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

 

 

Keeps colder 850's near the SLP which tracks very close to Chicago...

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.850pw150.gif

[Geos]

 

Guess that's what I get for trusting a FB user on Flowers page.

 

Lol! 

I know what movie that is from.

[Tom]

I'd only pay attention to the track and 850's....nothing else...precip is underdone by the DGEX...

[bud2380]

FIM looks a lot like the other models. 

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2016012712/t2/totsn_sfc_f180.png

[Money]

DGEX shouldn't be used for anything

[bud2380]

It's amazing how close, yet so far away I feel with this storm. 

[Snowlover76]

00z runs will be crucial tonight. I think it will truly show the direction of this thing. However, we all know, last minute, this thing is going to shift.

i dont have a god feeling about this one.  Being in the jackpot area this far out is usually a kiss of death. 

[Niko]

DGEX...holding steady...lol

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

 

 

Keeps colder 850's near the SLP which tracks very close to Chicago...

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.850pw150.gif

This buries SEMI. Lets see what happens.

[Niko]

Only time will tell, but, this low pressure area has major potential for some on this forum. Not sure if its going to be as bad as the one the EC experienced over the last couple of days, but, nevertheless, it will throw a strong punch, no question about that.

 

BTW: EC still digging out!!

[Geos]

Where did you get those maps Niko? What are the cut off times for the DGEX?

[jcwxguy]

i dont have a god feeling about this one.  Being in the jackpot area this far out is usually a kiss of death.

unfortunately it usually is. I do have a gut feeling though that this system will track farther south, hope I'm wrong through and we end up getting it. Not going to give up though until 24 hours out

[ToastedRavs]

i dont have a god feeling about this one. Being in the jackpot area this far out is usually a kiss of death.

 

I hope you don't have a "god" feeling about this. Lol. If so, a lot of people would be hitting you up with snow prayers!

 

In all seriousness, its still five days away, anyone from central Kansas and Nebraska eastward to central Illinois have a chance.

[Geos]

Where did you get those maps Niko? What are the cut off times for the DGEX?

I mean Tom.

[Money]

Frankie says massive blizzard to hit wisconsin

 

Lock it up he's never wrong

[gabel23]

Everyone keeps talking about this storm going further southeast, well Sioux Falls thinks if anything the track may be further north than anything else....

 

STILL TRACKING A LARGE UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY FROM

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRIMARY FOCUS PERIODS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...GEM
GLOBAL AND ECMWF HAVE ALL NOW COALESCED AROUND A SOLUTION WHICH
TAKES A BULK OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WITH SNOW...LESS SO IN
OUR NORTHWEST AROUND HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN. THERE IS SO MANY
QUESTION MARKS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WILL THE UPPER
AND SURFACE LOWS TRACK FURTHER NORTH AS THE MODEL BIAS USUALLY HAS A
TENDENCY TO TRACK THE LOW TOO MUCH EASTWARD INTO THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. THIS HAPPENED IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL
GET IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK. IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WE HAD
UNSTABLE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. LASTLY...WILL A SOLID
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND OHIO
VALLEY TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH COULD SHUTOFF OUR WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE. IN MARCH OR EARLY APRIL...THIS LAST
SITUATION WOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM WITH MORE OVERALL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
AREAS COULD RECEIVE A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WITH ITS CURRENT TRACK.
IF ANYTHING...BELIEVE THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS IT MOVES UP AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MORE
THAN WHAT IS BEING SHOWN RIGHT NOW. THEREFORE THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
MAKE THE SNOWFALL HEAVIER FOR A BIGGER PART OF OUR AREA. ONE THING
IS MORE CERTAIN...SURE GETS COLDER AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
ONLY TEENS AND LOWER 20S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

[Money]

Frankie

 

[hlcater]

There's two groups right now, those who expect a SE shift and those who expect a NW one.

[Money]

There's two groups right now, those who expect a SE shift and those who expect a NW one.

 

yeah except the SE shift won't happen, or at least there won't be a significant shift SE that would give Chicago a snowstorm. 

[Geos]

The bulls eye is not going to be as far NW as Sioux Falls. Not with a lead wave strengthening over the Great Lakes and a high heading down through SK and MB.

[Tom]

Where did you get those maps Niko? What are the cut off times for the DGEX?

 

 

Here you go...http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

 

I think it fully loads around 7:00pm/7:00am CST...not sure though...

[Tom]

Frankie says massive blizzard to hit wisconsin

 

Lock it up he's never wrong

Jinx...

[Money]

Jinx...

 

You seem pretty confident in a SE shift that will give Chicago a snowstorm.

 

How much do you want to wager? 

[Tom]

yeah except the SE shift won't happen, or at least there won't be a significant shift SE that would give Chicago a snowstorm. 

Both are plausible...

 

Quote...from Frankie..."Don't go outside"..."Have your extra blankets to keep yourself warm"...lol...love that guy's energy..

[Money]

Both are plausible...

 

Quote...from Frankie..."Don't go outside"..."Have your extra blankets to keep yourself warm"...lol...love that guy's energy..

 

Don't wishcast which we both know is what you are doing right now. 

[Geos]

The low would have to basically kick out on the day before in order to make a turn harder than what the op Euro was showing.

I don't see any support for anything like the Euro right now.

[Tom]

You seem pretty confident in a SE shift that will give Chicago a snowstorm.

 

How much do you want to wager? 

I'm borderline...but can see it both ways.  What is your idea of a snowstorm??  All snow, mix...back to snow???

[Money]

I'm borderline...but can see it both ways. What is your idea of a snowstorm?? All snow, mix...back to snow???

All snow 6+ inches

[Tom]

Don't wishcast which we both know is what you are doing right now. 

First time this season I feel that this storm can go either way...never have I wish-casted all season long.  

[Tom]

All snow 6+ inches

Won't make that call this far out.  Would be stupid.  Not really a gambling guy.  Actually, I never gamble.  

 

Let's say if ORD receives 6" or more of snow, I win...if not, then I'll buy you a 1 month subscription to Wx Bell since we have 1 month of met Winter remaining.  Deal???