GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Tom]

Big uptick in members giving accumulating snow into N IL...I"m not asking to be in the jackpot zone, but give me at least 3"+!!!  We'll have more chances at storms so I'm not trying to be greedy.

[WBadgersW]

Lock in e8 haha

 

There seems to be a lot of variation, which makes sence. At least for Wisco

[Tom]

Alot of members get Lincoln pretty good

I don't think your region has to worry to much at this point compared to what I have to deal with...lol...its to close for comfort...threading the needle which makes it all that much more interesting digesting the meteorology for this event.

[Tom]

Dang it, AT&T tech guy just arrived to fix my cable lines!  Won't have service so I appreciate those who post maps on the 12z Euro when they come in.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160128/12Z/f024/sfcmslpconus.png

[Geos]

GFS and GGEM(not sure about EURO) show the initial/lead wave going negative tilt/stronger. Wouldn't this actually make the main wave dig more and more importantly eject farther south closer to the Mexico border then what is currently being shown? Something to ponder.

 

Yeah we want to the initial Sunday wave to go stronger.

 

The baroclinic zone on the GEFS mean went a bit further south. ~50 miles. Better cold air feed coming off that Ontario high and across MI.

 

 

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160128/12Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160128/12Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[gosaints]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Geos]

The southern Plains wave dug south into OK a bit more at 72 hours compared to last night.

[gosaints]

EURO quite a bit stronger at 96 compared to 120 yesterday

[Geos]

Heights are rising more quickly in the upper Midwest this run. Front it further south.

 

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160128/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[gosaints]

Just south of KC at 120?

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160128/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

[bud2380]

Dang, nw shift on the euro

[NEJeremy]

YES!! It came back north!!

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160128/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

[hlcater]

Ummm. I don't even know what to say about that euro.

[gosaints]

Similar the the GFS in track to that point at least albeit weaker

[gabel23]

Thank you King Euro!! Now lets hold our positions, the Canadian can hopefully get thrown out too or come join the GFS and Euro. 

[bud2380]

Euro is showing accumulating snow in southern Iowa even with the low further nw. Looks to be coming in colder in the upper atmosphere

[gosaints]

That has the look of a solid front end spreading the wealth

[Geos]

It's pulling a December 28th on us. Low is going to start occluding after this.

Doesn't make sense that it would turn into the high like that.

 

And it's positively tilted, weird...

 

[bud2380]

Cuts right through Iowa. Looks like a few inches in e Iowa and then dry slotted.

[ToastedRavs]

Looks like track is just south of KC to near Quincy to Traverse City, MI in 24 hours

[gosaints]

Looks like track is just south of KC to near Quincy to Traverse City, MI in 24 hours

Faster than the GFS for sure

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160128/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

[Geos]

 

High is even farther south in Ontario at this hour than the 0z or 12z.

[jcwxguy]

.

[gabel23]

Looks like track is just south of KC to near Quincy to Traverse City, MI in 24 hours

That is a perfect track for Eastern Neb/Western Iowa. I would like to see the snowfall maps! 

[ToastedRavs]

Still more than three quarters qpf for DSM on the new euro

[hlcater]

I'll take the euro honestly 6-8 isn't bad,

[jcwxguy]

Zoomed in

[gabel23]

Zoomed in

That still looks like a tight gradient for snow....I'll take the GFS please.......

[bud2380]

Low strengthens as it approaches Iowa then weakens a bit with precip and then quickly shunts off due east and then reorganizes. Seems odd

[Geos]

The storm follows the closed low before that went by in Quebec I believe.

[NEJeremy]

Zoomed in

wow surprised it isn't a bit further northwest....

[Geos]

Low strengthens as it approaches Iowa then weakens a bit with precip and then quickly shunts off due east and then reorganizes. Seems odd

 

Yeah because of the high resistance. It can't find a way through in Iowa, so the low tries to find the next weakest part of the high.

Where does it jump to?

 

Seeing positively tilted late in the game is a bit worrisome.

[gabel23]

wow surprised it isn't a bit further northwest....

I'm thinking the Euro is playing catch-up, by tonight or tomorrow hopefully it starts showing what the GFS has been showing for like the past 4 days......

[jcwxguy]

.95" qpf from euro for lnk snow

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN28                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK      MON 06Z 01-FEB   0.1    -1.2    1012      83      43    0.00     546     536    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -1.5    -1.8    1013      82      48    0.00     546     535    MON 18Z 01-FEB   1.7    -4.4    1015      60      68    0.00     546     534    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.6    -5.5    1013      64      99    0.02     545     535    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.8    -6.3    1011      76     100    0.12     542     533    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.3    -7.7    1008      88      98    0.45     533     526    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -6.3   -11.2    1007      85      99    0.28     529     524    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -6.2   -13.3    1009      81      88    0.06     529     522    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -7.5   -11.8    1013      80      85    0.01     530     520    1