January 2014 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

2 hours until 00z GFS

2 1/2 hours until 00z GEM

4 hours 18 minutes until 00z EURO

Bring it!!!

[luminen]

Bring it on... in addition to cold and snow I am really hoping for a ton of rain in February.   

 

Flooding probably. 

[Jesse]

36/31 out here today. VERY springlike.

[luvssnow_spokane]

62/30 here in the swamp. very spring like. The methane gas levels were exceptionally high today from the local marsh. Threw a cup of boiling water outside and it caught on fire. Shrek would be jealous.

[Skagit Weather]

Nice 51/31 day. Already down to 35F so it seems like I should score another freeze tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its go time for 00z GFS action.

[brody]

Its go time for 00z GFS action.

I predict massive member fallout as a result of that run 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I predict massive member fallout as a result of that run

 

there may be rioting with looting in the streets.

[brody]

there may be rioting with looting in the streets

 doubtful

[TT-SEA]

36/31 out here today. VERY springlike.

 

This is part of the problem.   Its been freezing cold there while so much warmer elsewhere and you have not experienced the warm weather.   If you just had 3 days in a row in the 60s with total sunshine like I have had here... you would not be mocking the spring-like comments.    It was more than spring-like here today.    It was probably 75 degrees sitting on our deck this afternoon.    It was really warm... kids were barefoot in t-shirts and commenting on how warm they were.   Granted... its wind-protected by the fireplace and on a dark surface.     But man... it made me want a margarita.  

[HighlandExperience]

This is part of the problem.   Its been freezing cold there while so much warmer elsewhere and you have not experienced the warm weather.   If you just had 3 days in a row in the 60s with total sunshine like I have had here... you would not be mocking the spring-like comments.    It was more than spring-like here today.    It was probably 75 degrees sitting on our deck this afternoon.    It was really warm... kids were barefoot in t-shirts and commenting on how warm they were.   Granted... its wind-protected by the fireplace and on a dark surface.     But man... it made me want a margarita.  

 

It does feel like Spring out there, no doubt about it. If I didn't know any better I would think it was May or something. 

[TT-SEA]

It does feel like Spring out there, no doubt about it. If I didn't know any better I would think it was May or something. 

 

 

We were at Costco late this afternoon... loading up the car next to another family in the parking lot and the guy said this feels like May rather than January.   I told him that usually means May will feel like January.     To which he responded with a load groan.

[Jesse]

Idiotic discussion tonight!

[TT-SEA]

I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say that will happen, but I like evolution and how we've seemed to put ourselves in an other shoe dropping kind of position.  My only word of warning at this point is the fact this pattern seems to kinda want to piece meal its way together.  There is no one pattern crasher, just quite a few smaller scale events eventually melding into something significant.  Typically the long range stuff is slightly more reliable (relatively speaking) when we have a better catalyst.  

 

 

I was thinking the same thing... just was not able to articulate my feeling on the evolution.    You nailed it.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z MM5-NAM gives another east wind event/storm east of I-205 and western Gorge Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Pretty chilly 925mb temps and icy cold wind.

[TT-SEA]

Idiotic discussion tonight!

 

Then please stop mocking people for commenting on the spring-like weather while you sit in freezing conditions that are completely different.   You can't let it die.   You refuse to accept that it can be spring-like in January here.   But it can and it definitely has been.      Extremes beget extremes right???

[BLI snowman]

00z MM5-NAM gives another east wind event/storm east of I-205 and western Gorge Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Pretty chilly 925mb temps and icy cold wind.

 

Certainly a chance of freezing rain on Tuesday in the gorge.

[TT-SEA]

00z MM5-NAM gives another east wind event/storm east of I-205 and western Gorge Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Pretty chilly 925mb temps and icy cold wind.

 

WRF shows the east wind being pretty light out here tonight and tomorrow morning but then gets it cranking again by 1 p.m. 

 

The 12Z WRF also showed some strong east winds on Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then please stop mocking people for commenting on the spring-like weather while you sit in freezing conditions that are completely different.   You can't let it die.   You refuse to accept that it can be spring-like in January here.   But it can and it definitely has been.      Extremes beget extremes right???

 

Early February 2012 was very springlike up here...Then all hell broke loose.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z MM5-NAM Time-Height model

40kts just off the surface and 45-50kts at 950-975mb. Impressive. If WRF mirrors this it's going to be quite intense.http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/kpdx.th.gif

[brody]

Idiotic discussion tonight!

Idiocy is in the eye of the beholder

[TT-SEA]

00Z WRF also shows some Fraser outflow tomorrow afternoon... albeit warm outflow for now.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.24.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Thursday/Friday system keeps sinking farther south with each run.   I assume that could also accelerate the cold air intrusion.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p06.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice snowstorm in the central plains the end of the week.

[TT-SEA]

Nice snowstorm in the central plains the end of the week.

 

 

Friday now looks totally dry up here.

[stuffradio]

Idiotic discussion tonight!

You really need to stop posting like this. It's very annoying, and you make it seem like only your opinion counts around here.

[westcoastexpat]

Well said ^

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty disjointed pattern through hour 192.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, out to hr 192 looks fairly cold. The majority of the cold wants to go east but still have consistent -4 to -6 range. 

[brody]

Well, out to hr 192 looks fairly cold. The majority of the cold wants to go east but still have consistent -4 to -6 range. 

It (cold ) always wants to go east, are you surprised buddy? 

 

I would expect a lot of back-and-forth before models settle on a solution and likely a mix of the GFS and EURO blend/s

 

I would say cold and low snow levels likely but possibly not much to concern ourselves with.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10-12 days and the fun begins...

[Guest Winterdog]

Something for everyone on this run.  Mountain snows, lowland snow, arctic air, what more could you want?

[Gradient Keeper]

But.... But... After day 10!

[Gradient Keeper]

Something for everyone on this run.  Mountain snows, lowland snow, arctic air, what more could you want?

For the 500mb pattern change with the offshore ridge/Alaskan block merger to move up in timing before day 10-12.

 

Onto the Ensembles!

 

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[SilverFallsAndrew]

Something for everyone on this run.  Mountain snows, lowland snow, arctic air, what more could you want?

 

Yeah it all gets here eventually.

[Guest Winterdog]

 

For the 500mb pattern change with the offshore ridge/Alaskan block merger to move up in timing before day 10-12.

 

Onto the Ensembles!

 

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I didn't know you could "like" your own posts.  This may open up a whole new world for me.

[Gradient Keeper]

I didn't know you could "like" your own posts.  This may open up a whole new world for me.

I didn't know you could "like" your own posts.  This may open up a whole new world for me.

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Haha yep

[Guest Winterdog]

I didn't know you could "like" your own posts.  This may open up a whole new world for me.

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Haha yep

Now this is starting to sound like an idiotic discussion I think. 

[brody]

I didn't know you could "like" your own posts.  This may open up a whole new world for me.

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Haha yep

be the first of your friends to like this post

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en
Nice compact 991mb low approaches the southern Oregon Coast on Friday. Pulls down a shot of cold air ahead of it. Then the ridge holds firm up over Alaska/Yukon, but may not be far enough west.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif
 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif