January 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html

Ensemble time!

*refresh* *refresh* *refresh*

[Gradient Keeper]

Come on team.   Think positive.   Believe it and you can do it!      

Okay, .... that was quite gay.... and pom poms don't suit you.... Seriously

[TT-SEA]

Anyone attending the Arctic Blast Pep Rally???   I have my pom-poms ready to go!      We need your support.     It DOES matter!

[Gradient Keeper]

Ensembles not nearly as good as 6z.... mean temp specifically. This is what I expected

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

Okay, .... that was quite ***.... and pom poms don't suit you.... Seriously

 

I made my last post before I read this.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Seattle is still looking quite decent

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I made my last post before I read this.   

Geniuses think alike! lol

[Gradient Keeper]

After day 7 a lot of spread and uncertainty. It'll be 3-4 days before things are smoothed over and nailed down more.

[HighlandExperience]

It's the new forum.

 

Think positive thoughts!

 

http://jasonlittle39.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/osteen.jpg

[Guest Monty67]

Geniuses think alike! lol

Fools seldom differ!!!

[Guest Monty67]

Based on the 12Z Canadian... I think the 12Z ECMWF will go the other way and be warmer than the 00Z run (which was not that cold).

 

Just a guess... we will know in an hour.

 

Feels like we are hanging on by a thread on the GFS runs.    Its not solid... and that usually kills us when it moderates as the event approaches.    Its not about what is shown at face value on the 12Z GFS in the 8-11 day period... that is unlikely to verify anyways.

I have to agree, it seems like kind of a weak evolution for a pattern that is showing 850 temps below -10C west of the Cascades.

[Timmy]

Can we keep the needless sarcasm-laced digs out of this thread please?

I think everyone is in a hurry to get ahead of the pack in te post count department...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Anyone attending the Arctic Blast Pep Rally???   I have my pom-poms ready to go!      We need your support.     It DOES matter!

Yes it can change the outcome. God your a dummy. Kidding..

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

GO EURO.

[stuffradio]

I think everyone is in a hurry to get ahead of the pack in te post count department...

I agree with what was just quoted.

[TT-SEA]

I bet there will be a lot of ensemble members as cold or colder than the operational.

 

I also expect the Euro to improve this morning. The ensemble mean for last night's run was much farther offshore with the blocking than the operational, with lower heights over us.

 

 

Your positive thinking is not working.

 

12Z ECMWF is quite a bit worse... like I thought it would be based on the 12Z Canadian.

 

Reality sucks sometimes... have to deal with it.      Thinking positive is a really bad way to forecast or even understand weather.      

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012812!!chart.gif

[Guest Monty67]

I think it is going to be tough to find a lot of positives to take away from the Euro.

[catnip]

I think it is going to be tough to find a lot of positives to take away from the Euro.

 

Unless you live back east and love the cold......

[westcoastexpat]

The Euro op jumps to a completely different solution; again, highly inconsistent. I would put more faith in the ensembles.

[Brennan]

I don't get the complaining. 12z was a nice run. Definitely snowier.

I don’t get why you have to tell everyone you don’t get the complaining. Models have trended far less realistic in terms of how it’s going to get cold here, and really don’t show anything but some chilly weather followed by big gobs of moisture, warm moisture from the Pacific. The 12z may have been a nice run, 1 of 4 runs each day, on one of a dozen different models that have grown less interesting to look at. That’s like 1 in 40 model runs that “looks nice”. But you don’t get the complaining. OK 

[westcoastexpat]

This pattern reminds me of early 2011 with the endless troughing in the east.

[Guest Monty67]

Unless you live back east and love the cold......

But it can't just stay cold in the east for an entire winter during a Neutral ENSO season........or can it

[Brennan]

I bet there will be a lot of ensemble members as cold or colder than the operational.

 

I also expect the Euro to improve this morning. The ensemble mean for last night's run was much farther offshore with the blocking than the operational, with lower heights over us.

Whatever you BET, you lost, and what you expected didn’t happen. You were wrong twice, despite your positive thinking. 0-2. I’m keeping track now. Keep critiquing everyone else’s attitudes towards the models though, it’s WORKING!!!! 

[stuffradio]

But it can't stay cold in the east for an entire winter during a Neutral ENSO season........or can it

What does the Groundhog say?

[TT-SEA]

Whatever you BET, you lost, and what you expected didn’t happen. You were wrong twice, despite your positive thinking. 0-2. I’m keeping track now. Keep critiquing everyone else’s attitudes towards the models though, it’s WORKING!!!! 

 

Go Hawks!

[catnip]

But it can't stay cold in the east for an entire winter during a Neutral ENSO season........or can it

 

I guess we will find out soon enough. 

 

At this point let's just get some snow in the mountains, although it looks like it will be more ridging/dry conditions.

[Jesse]

Whatever you BET, you lost, and what you expected didn’t happen. You were wrong twice, despite your positive thinking. 0-2. I’m keeping track now. Keep critiquing everyone else’s attitudes towards the models though, it’s WORKING!!!!

Settle down Brennan.

[Guest Monty67]

What does the Groundhog say?

I could just ask my dog. She is probably just as accurate. She is a Chihuahua rescue from California, so I am pretty sure she always thinks it is winter around here.

[Jesse]

The 12z ensembles weren't bad. Too bad the Euro is getting off the train now. Wait and see...

[Jesse]

Your positive thinking is not working.

 

12Z ECMWF is quite a bit worse... like I thought it would be based on the 12Z Canadian.

 

Reality sucks sometimes... have to deal with it. Thinking positive is a really bad way to forecast or even understand weather.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012812!!chart.gif

I made an educated guess based on last night's Euro ensembles. Didn't work out. What if it had? Would I suddenly be a prophetic genius? The reasoning behind the guess was the same, regardless. I didn't make it just because.

 

If the Euro ensembles had been way worse than the op last night I would have predicted the opposite.

[Brennan]

I made an educated guess based on last night's Euro ensembles. Didn't work out. What if it had? Would I suddenly be a prophetic genius? The reasoning behind the guess was the same, regardless. I didn't make it just because.

 

If the Euro ensembles had been way worse than the op last night I would have predicted the opposite.

Settle down Jesse, you are 0-2 regardless. #Wouldacouldashoulda... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

But it can't just stay cold in the east for an entire winter during a Neutral ENSO season........or can it

We will get ours in the spring... Guaranteed!  

[Phil]

But it can't just stay cold in the east for an entire winter during a Neutral ENSO season........or can it

Of course it can...there is nothing random about the climate system. There are obvious reasons why the NPAC ridge has been so prolific this winter.

 

Those who took into account the state of relevant global forcings in their winter forecasts were able to predict it well in advance.

 

Meanwhile, those who went with statistical methods (such as precursors to the AO and tropical SST patterns) wound up forecasting a US blowtorch.

 

If you go back to western and read my winter forecast, you'll see how I was able to correctly forecast this winter, using easy accessible data.

[catnip]

What does the Groundhog say?

 

Not sure about the Groundhog, but I know what the fox says....

 

[luterra]

Of course it can...there is nothing random about the climate system. There are obvious reasons why the NPAC ridge has been so prolific this winter.

 

Those who took into account the state of relevant global forcings in their winter forecasts were able to predict it well in advance.

 

Meanwhile, those who went with statistical methods (such as precursors to the AO and tropical SST patterns) wound up forecasting a US blowtorch.

 

If you go back to western and read my winter forecast, you'll see how I was able to correctly forecast this winter, using easy accessible data.

 

 

I'm not sure you were so spot-on.  You did forecast the NE Pac ridge, which was to some degree a persistence forecast as the ridge was already strong last fall.  You did say that the best chance for arctic air in the PNW would be December, which verified nicely.

 

On the other hand, you forecasted a flip to +AO in January with zonal flow and above-normal temperatures across the US.  That may yet happen a month late or so, but for now we remain locked in predominantly -AO with crazy cold for the east.

[Gradient Keeper]

The bickering over what the GFS or EURO shows, or the GEM, after day 7 or day 10 is pointless, if not laughable. I mean seriously. It is what it is, and 12z EURO operational was not good at all. So, oh well we move on. Maybe the Ensembles will be better. Onto 00z.....

 

00z GFS in 8 hours

00z GEM in 8 hours 42 minutes

00z EURO in 10 hours 38 minutes

[luminen]

Some pretty chunky rain falling in Eugene right now.

[bainbridgekid]

Some pretty chunky rain falling in Eugene right now.

It's been really dry. You sure you didn't just forget what rain looks like?  

 

40 degrees at EUG and 850mb temps are around +5 down there . . .

[Deweydog]

I could just ask my dog. She is probably just as accurate. She is a Chihuahua rescue from California, so I am pretty sure she always thinks it is winter around here.

 

That what I've done.  He's pretty much nailed this winter.  

[Phil]

On the other hand, you forecasted a flip to +AO in January with zonal flow and above-normal temperatures across the US.

Not quite. I forecasted a +AO/-EPO through January 15, precluding a nationwide blowtorch, then a PV breakdown/-AO for late January/February/March..which is occurring.

 

My forecast for a +AO this month was based on a combination of factors that did not quite come together. So the PV ended up being displaced toward the NAO domain, but the NAM was still positive.