January 2014 in the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

12z is BullZhizzzz. Seriosuly how much of a broken record can this winter have?

 

At least the mountains are getting a nice remodel this week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The way the models have trended... and given his super confident predictions... we might not see Jim back on here until August.

 

Too bad that it has to be so extreme with him.   This is the problem with being so incredibly positive about something that doesn't work that way.    You crash hard when you have to deal with reality.

Give him credit for being close.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim, stop antagonizing Jim. You've beat this horse to death. We get that you seek enjoyment in making sure Jim's (albeit unrealistic) model interpretation are disproven. But at the same time, at what point does the sound of Jim's broken record of "the cold is coming" get overtaken by the sound of your "Jim's wrong"?

 

How about we focus more on the models and less on trying to embarrass one another, and that goes for both Jim and Tim. Jim needs to stop harping on posters who don't see an excitably cold solution, and Tim needs to stop harping on the overly optimistic posters (albeit they did antagonize him initially, and we know Tim is overdramatize).

 

Cut the ** for tat; discuss the weather like big boys. Thanks.

You act like they don't like each other. Your wrong and this has always been this way with them. It's part of the spice of the forum.

[TT-SEA]

Give him credit for being close.

 

I don't want to really discuss this more... but when you say something is always coming you will be close once in awhile and even right sometimes.    

[TT-SEA]

You act like they don't like each other. Your wrong and this has always been this way with them. It's part of the spice of the forum.

 

I respect Jim and think he is a GREAT person.   Being super positive about cold weather in the PNW all the time might not be a way to be a good forecaster (or for your mental health)... but it is a great formula for living your life in general.

[TT-SEA]

12z is BullZhizzzz. Seriosuly how much of a broken record can this winter have?

 

At least the mountains are getting a nice remodel this week.

 

 

Good news... 850mb temps should stay cold enough to keep all the snow in the mountains in good condition for the foreseeable future.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian at 144 hours:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[westcoastexpat]

Thanks Tim, that was a nice comment from you and I agree. It was a much better response than the one MR.SNOW gave

[westcoastexpat]

Pattern is looking excellent for mountain snows. You know it's been a bad year when hills back east have twice as much snow than mountains out west

[Brennan]

Like I’ve said all winter. It will only take 1 week of cold/snowy weather to fill our empty tummies with happy feelings. Whether it is February 6th through 12th, or February 23rd through the 29th (are there 29 days in February this year?)... Either way, if we get a nice dump, which is very possible next month, we won’t care when it happens. Lets just be patient at let it play out. If we don’t get hit the rest of the winter, you know what that means... Next winter we will be REALLLLLLLY DUE! 

[HighlandExperience]

Pattern is looking excellent for mountain snows. You know it's been a bad year when hills back east have twice as much snow than mountains out west

 

Right now even in our dismal crappy year most of the resorts in WA still have more snow than most of the ski resorts back east. Just goes to show how inferior midwest/east coast skiing is.

 

But you are right, this year has been pathetic. But I will take most pathetic years out west compared to skiing east of the Rockies any day. =)

 

P.S. I enjoy SnowWizards posts. Hope he gets back in on the action soon.

[Canadian guy]

The operational still seems to be on the warm side of things, for the Feb 3 - 8 timeframe.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[westcoastexpat]

I'm bitter that there were no runs open during my 7 weeks in BC... Oh well. I refuse to snowboard on these hills they call mountains out east. But many ski hills here have 55"+ on the ground whereas most slopes in Vancouver don't have more than 35" on the ground

[HighlandExperience]

I'm bitter that there were no runs open during my 7 weeks in BC... Oh well. I refuse to snowboard on these hills they call mountains out east. But many ski hills here have 55"+ on the ground whereas most slopes in Vancouver don't have more than 35" on the ground

 

I would imagine that Cypress Mountain sucked while you were here for your stay. But even a sub par place like Cypress will surpass most east coast snow fall totals in a few months. Thankfully there are still plenty of days left this season.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Mt Baker has between 74 and 87 inches, and Stevens Pass has between 51 and 75 inches.  Not a lot for this time of year, but enough for good skiing.

[Bham_Guy]

12z Euro is a bit better at Day 6 & 7. The -10C 850 line makes it to Bellingham.

[bainbridgekid]

12z Euro is a bit better at Day 6 & 7. The -10C 850 line makes it to Bellingham.

Hard to say for sure without precip maps, but hour 192 definitely looks potentially quite snowy.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012912!!chart.gif

[Guest Winterdog]

The Euro says we ain't dead yet!

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z ECMWF is WAAAAAAAYYYY better.

[50shadesofvan]

Go 12Z Euro. All aboard... 

Started a separate thread where people can publicly post their snow predictions for February. Anyone have no shame and will admit a possible a snow shutout? 

 

http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/28/snowfecta-february-snow-contest

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 180 hours... as far out as the precip maps go on this site.

 

http://s4.postimg.org/ak1hkxy5p/Untitled.jpg

 

 

On this run... it appears that low is moving down the coast and will swing in through Oregon.    Looks a December repeat... on this run.    

[westcoastexpat]

I would never go to Cypress these days. I much prefer Grouse.

 

I hope the north shore mountains surpass the east for total snow. It will be embarrassing otherwise. I don't think that has ever happened. Albeit the north shore has had a string of great years, I guess it was time for a bad one.

[TT-SEA]

Would be awesome to have today's set up next week with cold air in place.   Tons of moisture rotating in around a low just offshore.

[Guest Monty67]

And the 12Z ECMWF is WAAAAAAAYYYY better.

Yes it is.

 

So a good gfs run with long range arctic air can generate pages of posts here, but the best euro run in days and I here crickets?

 

Hopefully things get good enough to bring Jim back.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And the 12Z ECMWF is WAAAAAAAYYYY better.

Yeah for sure! I was talking on the phone with a customer and clicked on the EURO and stopped talking for a few seconds looking at the maps in shock lol.

[BLI snowman]

Note how the operational GFS is entering its mid range warm bias period. It did the same thing in early December, taking a significant amount of the cold away about a week out before eventually caving back to the ensembles. 

[TT-SEA]

Note how the operational GFS is entering its mid range warm bias period. It did the same thing in early December, taking a significant amount of the cold away about a week out before eventually caving back to the ensembles. 

 

 

Lets hope its that simple. 

 

The last few runs of the ECMWF were also in its mid-range warm bias phase then as well.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF ensemble is much less exciting than the operational run for next week.

 

Still chilly though.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!192!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014012912!!chart.gif

[TT-SEA]

SEA almost up to 1 inch of rain.

 

I love it... get it all at once so its not such a dry month despite so many dry days.

[BLI snowman]

Lets hope its that simple. 

 

The last few runs of the ECMWF were also in its mid-range warm bias phase then as well.  

 

Yeah, the Euro operational was far more consistent heading into the early December event, so there's that.

[bainbridgekid]

East wind still doing wonders up at the pass.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/sc/090VC05200.jpg

[Phil]

Disaster over here. A pipe leading into my basement has burst..water shorted out my circuit breaker & everything... I essentially have my own mini Niagara Falls going right now.

 

Can't help but think the frigid air is responsible..high temp of 7F today.

[weatherfan2012]

phil what your thoughts on when the pattern breaks down.Larry cosgrove thinks the -Ao breaks down after febuary 13 or so and we go into a zonal flow for most sounds like he going with the 77 and 82 analogs as he has all winter.

[HighlandExperience]

East wind still doing wonders up at the pass.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/sc/090VC05200.jpg

 

 Ya it has been awesome up in the Washington Cascades all day. Definetly a nice change from what we have been getting the last couple of weeks.

[bainbridgekid]

Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 180 hours... as far out as the precip maps go on this site.

 

On this run... it appears that low is moving down the coast and will swing in through Oregon.    Looks a December repeat... on this run.    

At face value you are right. Just saw this posted on Facebook.

 

[Snow]

The ECMWF run out to day 5 is almost perfect. Cold air from the eastern basin will get filtered to the valleys with a low heading inland. Beautiful setup.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/GZ_PN_192_0000.gif

[Guest Monty67]

 Ya it has been awesome up in the Washington Cascades all day. Definetly a nice change from what we have been getting the last couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, the mountains up here got nothing last night. Mount Washington is closing this afternoon until further notice. The groomers ran out of snow to push around and the runs are basically bare again.

 

http://www.mountwashington.ca/webcams/alpine/full2.jpg?447

[Skagit Weather]

Meanwhile, the mountains up here got nothing last night. Mount Washington is closing this afternoon until further notice. The groomers ran out of snow to push around and the runs are basically bare again.

 

http://www.mountwashington.ca/webcams/alpine/full2.jpg?447

Yep, nothing up at Mount Baker except for cold rain and a little snow on the highest runs. It also looks like Stevens is almost above freezing currently although temps should drop relatively soon.

[westcoastexpat]

Yep, nothing up at Mount Baker except for cold rain and a little snow on the highest runs. It also looks like Stevens is almost above freezing currently although temps should drop relatively soon.

 

It's been a very tough year for the northern mountains, as I've said. I know loads of people who haven't even gone boarding this year. I've yet to see a Mt. Baker shot on my Facebook this season... shame. Nobody in BC is going!

[50shadesofvan]

Yep, nothing up at Mount Baker except for cold rain and a little snow on the highest runs. It also looks like Stevens is almost above freezing currently although temps should drop relatively soon.

 

Yeah. It's very unprecedented, especially when you look at how little snow is on the Vancouver Island mountain range. Unbelievable: