Tom Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 These clippers often overperform so i wouldnt be surprised to see a few counties upgraded.Yup, depends on where the heavier banding sets up. Looks like this Clipper will pivot as it heads into IL, so where that pivot takes place will be the deciding factor who will score on those bigger totals. How much snow do you have OTG??? I think you have had snow OTG since late December, right??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's 4-6" on the LOT map on your doorstep Tom.2-6" is in my grid forecast now. 6z looked really nice. Both waves are bringing 8" amounts into the cwa. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z NAM sure raised snowfall accumulation just south of here with both waves. 2nd wave only Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z NAM sure raised snowfall accumulation just south of here with both waves. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160213/12Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png 2nd wave only http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160213/12Z/f84/24hkucherasnowmw.png12z GGEM has a pretty decent 2nd wave but not as cold. This will prob be a wild card play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 BTW, SE winds may play a role near Geo's location and northward. Some of the models showing Lehs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I noticed the wind direction a few days ago. With the really cold temps tomorrow LEhS might be a factor. If they could turn a bit more ESE it would be great. I got a feeling the GFS track and strength will be the winner. It nailed the last system overall. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yup, depends on where the heavier banding sets up. Looks like this Clipper will pivot as it heads into IL, so where that pivot takes place will be the deciding factor who will score on those bigger totals. How much snow do you have OTG??? I think you have had snow OTG since late December, right???Just from looking id say 5-6 OTG. About 39" on the year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just from looking id say 5-6 OTG. About 39" on the year You look to double that according to the 5.8" snowfall mean on the SREF. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Looking like a widespread 4-5" event in northern IL. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 South now? What a shocker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z Euro... Better than it was. Why in the world is LOT not issuing the advisory? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 South now? What a shocker You're in the best position for lake enhancement. I know your area usually gets that in a SE flow. --- Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Better than it was. Why in the world is LOT not issuing the advisory?They prob will in today's AFD... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM has the 2nd wave coming farther north, and now has a third wave on it's heals. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 LOT adjusted the advisories a few counties east, but not across the entire CWA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Counting on those high ratios to deliver. This third wave needs to be watched imo. The baroclinic zone is sharp, so it's believable. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Counting on those high ratios to deliver. This third wave needs to be watched imo. The baroclinic zone is sharp, so it's believable. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160213/18Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.pngRgem plus euro gives one reason to worry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Rgem plus euro gives one reason to worry Drier, more virga. I was looking at the moisture transport in the mid levels and there's a really strong moisture transport out of the Gulf, so I don't think it will be a huge issue. If the flow was more east or northeast, then I would worry. Sliver of dry air to deal with, but I've seen a lot worse setups. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Depends which model has it correct of course... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 All models today have trended toward putting the heaviest band over far southeast Iowa, with a bit less up here. Cedar Rapids is now in the 0.20-0.30" range, so I'm thinking 3-4 inches. This winter we'll just have to be happy with that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 The GFS has a deeper dry layer than the NAM. It'll all depend on how quickly the atmosphere saturates. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Imo, closer to the Quad Cities should be in the cross hairs on the heaviest band. HRRR is hinting at that. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherCrossing Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Good consistency between NAM runs. 12Z vs 00Z total snow. 18Z looks very similar. http://i.imgur.com/UP0DOY8.png Quote Premium graphics. Advanced display. WeatherCrossing.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 HRRR really bullish with that southern MN band. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hopefully we can see some lake enhancement with this. Otherwise I think MIlwaukee will only see about a 1" out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherCrossing Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I realize this don't go to the end of the system...but the WRF models (NMM & ARW bottom panels) have the rain/snow line much further north. Total Snow: NAM (top left), 4km NAM (top right), ARW (bottom left), NMM (bottom right) http://i.imgur.com/YC2HAks.png Quote Premium graphics. Advanced display. WeatherCrossing.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 I realize this don't go to the end of the system...but the WRF models (NMM & ARW bottom panels) have the rain/snow line much further north. Total Snow: NAM (top left), 4km NAM (top right), ARW (bottom left), NMM (bottom right) I like your site.Where are you located? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hrrr drying out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hrrr drying outSo is the RAP-- not a good sign Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 So is the RAP-- not a good signNAM is drier this run as well.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160214/00Z/f42/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 I will say that this first band is over performing here in C.IA between .3 and .4 an hour rates--- likely the only thing that over performs with this event. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Swing and a miss on the GFS for Chitown...doh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro for the kill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Local mets still going with 2-4", heaviest SW of metro...RPM model paints around 2" for ORD...ehhh, I think I'm ready for some AZ weather after this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Dry air not a problem in SE Iowa right now. Snowing Ottumwa already. - and in western IL under that band.Time to watch the radar now and see how this rides out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 James looks to be in a prime spot now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 The Ames area this evening had a heavy band move through and drop a quick 3+ inches. The band should weaken as it heads east. Models continue to bring my precip forecast down toward 0.20". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Noticed something is wrong with the way PW calculated snow on the 4km NAM. ~0.15" of water but no snow to show for it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 14, 2016 Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 We have about 3" here outside Des Moines. Roads are completely covered, and had some good rates earlier. May be able to hit four inches out of this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2016 Some decent returns heading into W IL ATM...looks like it should hold together...hoping to squeeze out a couple inches out of this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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