Valentine's Day/President's Day Snow System and 16th Clipper

[Tom]

These clippers often overperform so i wouldnt be surprised to see a few counties upgraded.

Yup, depends on where the heavier banding sets up.  Looks like this Clipper will pivot as it heads into IL, so where that pivot takes place will be the deciding factor who will score on those bigger totals.  How much snow do you have OTG???  I think you have had snow OTG since late December, right???

[Geos]

That's 4-6" on the LOT map on your doorstep Tom.

2-6" is in my grid forecast now. 6z looked really nice. Both waves are bringing 8" amounts into the cwa.

 

[Geos]

12z NAM sure raised snowfall accumulation just south of here with both waves. 

 

 

2nd wave only

 

[Tom]

12z NAM sure raised snowfall accumulation just south of here with both waves. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160213/12Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

2nd wave only

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160213/12Z/f84/24hkucherasnowmw.png

12z GGEM has a pretty decent 2nd wave but not as cold.  This will prob be a wild card play.

[Tom]

BTW, SE winds may play a role near Geo's location and northward.  Some of the models showing Lehs.

[Geos]

I noticed the wind direction a few days ago. With the really cold temps tomorrow LEhS might be a factor. If they could turn a bit more ESE it would be great.

 

I got a feeling the GFS track and strength will be the winner. It nailed the last system overall.

[james1976]

Yup, depends on where the heavier banding sets up.  Looks like this Clipper will pivot as it heads into IL, so where that pivot takes place will be the deciding factor who will score on those bigger totals.  How much snow do you have OTG???  I think you have had snow OTG since late December, right???

Just from looking id say 5-6 OTG. About 39" on the year

[Geos]

Just from looking id say 5-6 OTG. About 39" on the year

 

You look to double that according to the 5.8" snowfall mean on the SREF. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

Looking like a widespread 4-5" event in northern IL. 

[WBadgersW]

South now? What a shocker

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[Geos]

12z Euro...

 

Better than it was.

 

Why in the world is LOT not issuing the advisory?

[Geos]

South now? What a shocker

 

You're in the best position for lake enhancement. I know your area usually gets that in a SE flow.

 

---

 

 

[Tom]

Better than it was.

 

Why in the world is LOT not issuing the advisory?

They prob will in today's AFD...

[Geos]

NAM has the 2nd wave coming farther north, and now has a third wave on it's heals. 

 

 

[Tom]

LOT adjusted the advisories a few counties east, but not across the entire CWA...

[Geos]

Counting on those high ratios to deliver.

 

This third wave needs to be watched imo. The baroclinic zone is sharp, so it's believable. 

 

[gosaints]

Counting on those high ratios to deliver.

 

This third wave needs to be watched imo. The baroclinic zone is sharp, so it's believable.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160213/18Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

Rgem plus euro gives one reason to worry

[Geos]

Rgem plus euro gives one reason to worry

 

Drier, more virga. I was looking at the moisture transport in the mid levels and there's a really strong moisture transport out of the Gulf, so I don't think it will be a huge issue. If the flow was more east or northeast, then I would worry. Sliver of dry air to deal with, but I've seen a lot worse setups.

 

 

[gosaints]

Depends which model has it correct of course...

[Hawkeye]

All models today have trended toward putting the heaviest band over far southeast Iowa, with a bit less up here. Cedar Rapids is now in the 0.20-0.30" range, so I'm thinking 3-4 inches.  This winter we'll just have to be happy with that.

[Geos]

The GFS has a deeper dry layer than the NAM. It'll all depend on how quickly the atmosphere saturates.

 

 

[Geos]

Imo, closer to the Quad Cities should be in the cross hairs on the heaviest band. HRRR is hinting at that. 

 

[WeatherCrossing]

Good consistency between NAM runs.  12Z vs 00Z total snow.  18Z looks very similar.  

 

http://i.imgur.com/UP0DOY8.png

[Geos]

HRRR really bullish with that southern MN band.

 

[jlp]

Hopefully we can see some lake enhancement with this. Otherwise I think MIlwaukee will only see about a 1" out of this.

[WeatherCrossing]

I realize this don't go to the end of the system...but the WRF models (NMM & ARW bottom panels) have the rain/snow line much further north.  

 

Total Snow: NAM (top left), 4km NAM (top right), ARW (bottom left), NMM (bottom right)

 

http://i.imgur.com/YC2HAks.png

[Geos]

I realize this don't go to the end of the system...but the WRF models (NMM & ARW bottom panels) have the rain/snow line much further north.  

 

Total Snow: NAM (top left), 4km NAM (top right), ARW (bottom left), NMM (bottom right)

 

 

I like your site.

Where are you located?

[gosaints]

Hrrr drying out

[Grizzcoat]

Hrrr drying out

So is the RAP-- not a good sign

[hlcater]

So is the RAP-- not a good sign

NAM is drier this run as well.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160214/00Z/f42/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Grizzcoat]

I will say that this first band is over performing here in C.IA between .3 and .4 an hour rates--- likely the only thing that over performs with this event.

[Tom]

Swing and a miss on the GFS for Chitown...doh!

[gosaints]

Euro for the kill

[Tom]

Local mets still going with 2-4", heaviest SW of metro...RPM model paints around 2" for ORD...ehhh, I think I'm ready for some AZ weather after this week.

[Geos]

Dry air not a problem in SE Iowa right now. Snowing Ottumwa already. - and in western IL under that band.

Time to watch the radar now and see how this rides out.

[Geos]

James looks to be in a prime spot now.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The Ames area this evening had a heavy band move through and drop a quick 3+ inches.  The band should weaken as it heads east.  Models continue to bring my precip forecast down toward 0.20".

[Geos]

Noticed something is wrong with the way PW calculated snow on the 4km NAM.

 

~0.15" of water but no snow to show for it.

 

[ToastedRavs]

We have about 3" here outside Des Moines. Roads are completely covered, and had some good rates earlier. May be able to hit four inches out of this

[Tom]

Some decent returns heading into W IL ATM...looks like it should hold together...hoping to squeeze out a couple inches out of this.