Madtown Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Mkx saying rain to backside snow Tues Tues night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Gfs going back to the more north/stronger solution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 That thing is a beast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Gfs yes please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Widespread 14-20 snowband from southern minny to central/northeastern WI Low tracks from southern Iowa east just south of Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS showing 60-70mph wind gusts in CO/NE/KS! Wow...another Blizzard in the making???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f132/acckucherasnowmw.png GFS is an absolute beast this run. 1035mb high in CA keeps it relatively south. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Ice and sleet on it's southern fringe this run. Kind of like the GGEM had. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised...its been Blizzard alley this year from the southern Plains up towards the Lakes....March roaring in like a mean Lion! Not simba...lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Here are the 2M Temps at HR 126: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f126/sfctmw.png Low Pressure/Winds: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f126/sfcmw.png QPF: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f126/6hqpfmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Ice and sleet on it's southern fringe this run. Kind of like the GGEM had. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png Horrible luck, if that happened with the storm tracking south of Chicago and still giving us mostly ice/sleet and some rain, I would have to just shake my head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 That must be an insane ice/sleet storm down by Milwaukee with 2M temps below 30 and winds of 45-50 mph with 0.7 QPF and GFS showing hardly any snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Total snowfall: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f150/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Here are the 2M Temps at HR 126: Low Pressure/Winds: QPF: With winds roaring down the lake like that the warm front will get pushed further south. Classic late winter/early spring setup. Not sure what's going on in SE WI with that hole, but really doesn't matter now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 GGEM def coming in better than 12z. Still not like GFS but here's HR 108 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Here was 12z HR 120: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 GGEM hits Chicago pretty good: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Horrible luck, if that happened with the storm tracking south of Chicago and still giving us mostly ice/sleet and some rain, I would have to just shake my head. CAA would be hauling down from the north in that setup. Thin band of ice and sleet. Looking soundings Milwaukee would be more sleet and snow than ice and sleet. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 CAA would be hauling down from the north in that setup. Thin band of ice and sleet. Looking soundings Milwaukee would be more sleet and snow than ice and sleet. That track alone would definitely favor more of a storm like December 28th, but 850 mb temps can get more iffy in storms like this this time of year, so maybe this is indicative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 So, I think the potential is very good of a major winter storm hitting the great lakes Tuesday/Wed. Obviously, the track will still be all over the place for the next day or two, but I'm feeling good that someone in this sub-forum is going to get hit pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 2 blizzards in a month would be asking a lot but what the heck, I'm game. Let's see how this plays out but at least a possibility somewhere in the region Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 UKIE is a bit south of GFS but pretty strong: HR 96: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif 120: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 That track alone would definitely favor more of a storm like December 28th, but 850 mb temps can get more iffy in storms like this this time of year, so maybe this is indicative. It's iffy definitely. We've both been burned this season. Here is a sounding over 'Tosa at 126 hours. 120 hour map did not load. But this is a sounding that says sleet maybe some snow mixed in. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 GGEM hits Chicago pretty good: Looks like the GEM will be loaded with moisture again.PW maps slow to load tonight. That wave position on Sunday and where it pushes the front to, will be key. Edit: At 10:1 it's ok, not what it was last night, that's for sure. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160226/00Z/f162/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO HR 96 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160226/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Low west of STL at 108 hours. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 990 just east of Chicago at HR 120 with 850's def cold enough for snow. Edit: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160226/00Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160226/00Z/f120/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro snowfall out yet? SLP placement and 850s look promising around here. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS Bufkit: MKE: 160302/0000Z 120 06022KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.019 2:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.02|| 0.05 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160302/0300Z 123 06024KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274 2:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.02|| 0.32 0| 0|100160302/0600Z 126 04028KT 26.5F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.43|| 0.507 2:1| 0.0|| 0.23|| 0.45|| 0.83 0| 19| 81160302/0900Z 129 04023KT 26.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 2:1| 0.0|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.84 0| 0|100160302/1200Z 132 03020KT 27.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 9:1| 0.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.90 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160302/1500Z 135 01026KT 22.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 1.0|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.92 100| 0| 0160302/1800Z 138 36020KT 19.5F SNOW 26:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 11:1| 1.5|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.94 100| 0| 0160302/2100Z 141 35018KT 16.2F SNOW 24:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 13:1| 1.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.95 100| 0| 0160303/0000Z 144 34015KT 12.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 1.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.95 0| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160303/0300Z 147 34013KT 9.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 1.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.95 0| 0| 0 MSN: 160302/0300Z 123 03022KT 26.1F SNOW 5:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.587 5:1| 3.2|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.69 100| 0| 0160302/0600Z 126 05028KT 24.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 5:1| 3.6|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.75 100| 0| 0160302/0900Z 129 03025KT 22.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 6:1| 4.0|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.78 100| 0| 0160302/1200Z 132 01030KT 16.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 6:1| 4.9|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.84 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160302/1500Z 135 01025KT 14.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 7:1| 5.6|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.91 100| 0| 0160302/1800Z 138 36023KT 16.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 7:1| 5.8|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.93 100| 0| 0160302/2100Z 141 35019KT 16.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 7:1| 5.9|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.94 100| 0| 0160303/0000Z 144 34013KT 13.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 5.9|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.94 0| 0| 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro snowfall out yet? SLP placement and 850s look promising around here. I will have maps in a few. From south central MI west it looks good. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 North trend is the way to go Ukie/Euro/GFS all agree now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Been digging around in the November snowstorm thread and it's playing out in similar fashion. Had some north runs, had some south runs, but in the end the track settled in the middle. Talk about resemblance of the November storm. This was the EURO 4 days out. The next day it did go north and hit the border area here and southern WI, but then came right back south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 All 3 models in range are pretty close together. ~100 miles. Not bad for 100-120 hours out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 This is certainly an interesting system, 50s Monday to heavy snow Tuesday. What I need is something in between the GFS and Euro. The 00z GFS is a bit too wrapped up and north while the Euro is a just a bit too much of a quick hitter. It will be nice to enjoy a mild weekend and track a possible snowstorm. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Could still see this becoming a turd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 00z GEFS were south and the 00z EPS were pretty consistent with 12z runs. Here is Gary Lezak's current thinking: These solutions, especially that European model, fit the pattern the best. Omaha, Nebraska and Des Moines, IA have had these storm systems this season and this would put both of those cities over 30 inches for the season. Could something different happen from this storm? Sure, but I am not counting on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEOS gonna end up calling for further se. Lead wave wrecks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z GFS way south. In ARK-LA border it looks like. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z NAM and GFS both have the same look, a dominant northern stream that will sweep the system to the south and east of Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z NAM and GFS both have the same look, a dominant northern stream that will sweep the system to the south and east of Iowa.and illinois and indiana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.