Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs ensemble total precip has pretty much all of southern wi in the .75-1 qpf even with the south /weaker members 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 The freezing line timing on all model within range is between 4-7pm here. Slightly earlier in Milwaukee, slightly later in Chicago. The models agree that this frontogenesis band will be the first to impact the region around this time as well. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs ensemble total precip has pretty much all of southern wi in the .75-1 qpf even with the south /weaker members It doesn't hurt that the northern members are probably juicier with precip in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z tracks. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 ARW is already sub 1002 at hr 48 in MO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 EURO starts the low in western KS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 nwi not in play on that last run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Difference between today's 12z euro run and yesterday's is insane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Low jumps to northern TX as the freezing line drops through the rest of WI.Healthy frontogenesis band from I-80 to extreme southern WI on this run. Low moving into southern MO at hour 48. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Not going to wrap up in time for IL or WI, but it's closer than it was. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Showing a nice band of 0.40-0.55" band of moisture through extreme eastern Iowa through N IL and into MI, before you hit the big backside snows.Having temps in the 20s in N IL north of I-88 your probably looking at some totals at 7 or even 8". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Little bit shorter of a window, but the chance for lake enhancement exists for about 12 hours. GEFS GEPS Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 the way the models have been going we should have a grasp on this storm sometime Monday night Tuesday morning..LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 the way the models have been going we should have a grasp on this storm sometime Monday night Tuesday morning..LOL Looks like the low will be in British Columbia tonight. So the 6z runs should be the beginning of the sounding data input. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 I count 7/11 gfs ensembles that have a huge snowstorm for southern wi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 These late winter system with a departing el Nino can be strong, so I wouldn't be surprised if more snow starting showing up on future runs. Sure this could turn out to be a dud, but climatologically speaking this is the time for big synoptic systems. Quote from Meteorologist Purduewx80 of AMWX. That shortwave was barely sampled at all - more importantly, the vort behind it is very poorly initialized by all guidance (too weak), including 12z coming in. That's telling me the backside jet is coming in stronger and will help this dig more, with the southern wave possibly trending faster and deeper in subsequent guidance. If correct, that suggests some of the negative tilt/beefed up runs from a few days ago may be closer to reality. Will be interesting to see 12z ensembles. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 There is our low in an hour or so. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Based on the maps through 36 it looks like 18z nam will continue the stronger/north trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Cold air is really under cutting south on this run. Mix to snow here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Low bumps down to the south as the NE flow strengthens. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Went from 0.4 on 12z nam to over 6 on 18z and parts of Chicago went from 9-10 to 0 Insane model performances lately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Went from 0.4 on 12z nam to over 6 on 18z and parts of Chicago went from 9-10 to 0 Insane model performances lately This is definitely not a spread the wealth type of system (huge surprise, right) so big run to run changes are likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM needs to get more organized. Jumping that low north and then back south is goofy. Fwiw: Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160228/18Z/f54/accfrzrmw.png Ice, ewwwwwwww. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 The low is too far north and it looks like 850s stay above freezing thru tues. morning. at least for my area. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM tries to eject that low out too quick imo and that's why it attempts to go from KS to northern MO then back south. Something between the EURO and then other 12z runs is more likely at this point. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM tries to eject that low out too quick imo and that's why it goes from KS to northern MO then back south. Something between the EURO and then other 12z runs is more likely at this point..... No comment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 4km NAM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 4km NAM http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160228/18Z/f60/acckucherasnowmw.png Micro-thin area of nice snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z EPS...nice clustering...don't see this low tracking anywhere close to Chicago...good support among GEFS/EPS members...should be a good snow storm Some big hits on the GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 .... No commentNobody should pretend they have any idea what will happen at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z EPS...nice clustering...don't see this low tracking anywhere close to Chicago...good support among GEFS/EPS members...should be a good snow storm Some big hits on the GEFS...Famous last words Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 The people who threw in the towel now coming back in here thinking they know what the storm is going to do is pretty funny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Nobody should pretend they have any idea what will happen at this point.Models are changing each run and the storm isn't sampled yet but there's no way it's tracking near chicago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Models are changing each run and the storm isn't sampled yet but there's no way it's tracking near chicago!No comment...you were really quite the last 2 days but yet I know you were looking at each run...now, since the storm is coming back you think you have a good handle on it??? Come on now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Models are changing each run and the storm isn't sampled yet but there's no way it's tracking near chicago!My favorite part of this generally crappy winter is that plenty of people who thought they had an extraordinary ability to predict weather have had to realize they r novices like the rest of us... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 No comment...you were really quite the last 2 days but yet I know you were looking at each run...now, since the storm is coming back you think you have a good handle on it??? Come on now...Did he say he had a handle on it? did he say he knows where it is going to track? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 No comment...you were really quite the last 2 days but yet I know you were looking at each run...now, since the storm is coming back you think you have a good handle on it??? Come on now...Remember when this was going to be nothing but a frontal wave? Good times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm out here relaxing and having fun soaking up sun...one of the big reasons I think Chicago will see a snow storm is that this storm took a similar track each LRC cycle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Did he say he had a handle on it? did he say he knows where it is going to track?yes he did...3 days ago he wanted to bet me it would track north of chicago...guess you missed that one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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