April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Glad most of our summer activities are in the Seattle area.

Not how anomalies work, silly.

[TT-SEA]

Not how anomalies work, silly.

Did not mean to offend OLM. Sorry.

[TT-SEA]

Talking about years like 1954, 1964, and 1970 is sort of meaningless. Those years barely even started with a Nino. We are running way warmer than those years already anyways.

 

2016 is running significantly warmer than every year on Phil's list. Probably not something that should be ignored when talking about the next few months.

[ShawniganLake]

A lot of cooling going on in the Pacific this week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[snow_wizard]

You again have to keep in mind that going by SEA these days will give you a warming climate x3. As in, SEA has a warming trend 3x that of normal warming.

 

Pretty frustrating considering that is our big station around here.  That extra runway really messed things up.

[TT-SEA]

A lot of cooling going on in the Pacific this week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Some nice warming offshore of our coast.  

[Jesse]

Same results in my area. A warm Seattle is good for us.

The second sentence should be your new signature.

[Phil]

Talking about years like 1954, 1964, and 1970 is sort of meaningless. Those years barely even started with a Nino. We are running way warmer than those years already anyways.

 

2016 is running significantly warmer than every year on Phil's list. Probably not something that should be ignored when talking about the next few months.

It doesn't matter if 2016 is running warm now. Whether or not A/M/J runs warm is only correlated to the timing of the ENSO flip and the strength of the preceding Niño.

 

This has no bearing on J/A/S.

[Jesse]

Some nice warming offshore of our coast.

I'm not seeing it. Cooling along the immediate CA coast is pretty obvious.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not seeing it.

 

 

His map shows changes... not actual departures.   

 

Waters offshore here have been warming.   The upcoming pattern is great for keeping that going.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.11.2016.gif

[Deweydog]

April's PDO could be really impressive.

[Jesse]

His map shows changes... not actual departures.

 

Waters offshore here have been warming. The upcoming pattern is great for keeping that going.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.11.2016.gif

I realize what his map was showing. Goodness you've been a pill lately. You totally deserve a freak late season snowstorm completely destroying your garden.

[Phil]

Heck, the best analogs for this upcoming summer predict a solidly warm/ridgy A/M/J in the PNW. The warmer summer analogs like 1942 and 1889 were actually colder/wetter in A/M/J versus those to the contrary.

 

It's not until J/A/S that the large scale shift in forcing pumps the NPAC anticyclone, ending the underlying warm regime.

[TT-SEA]

Heck, the best analogs for this upcoming summer predict a solidly warm/ridgy A/M/J in the PNW.

 

It's not until J/A/S that the large scale shift in forcing pumps the NPAC anticyclone, ending the warm regimen.

 

 

We know.    

 

As I have mentioned... that is the best possible summer here.    Much better than a cold AMJ and a warm JAS.      

 

A warm AMJ means we get a much longer summer.    JAS is always summery and nice.

[Deweydog]

How is A/S/S looking this year?

[Phil]

We know.

 

As I have mentioned... that is the best possible summer here. Much better than a cold AMJ and a warm JAS.

 

A warm AMJ means we get a much longer summer. JAS is always summery and nice.

If that's true, then I guess you have 6 months of beautiful weather to look forward to. Won't change the regional picture in terms of anomalies, though.

[TT-SEA]

I realize what his map was showing. Goodness you've been a pill lately. You totally deserve a freak late season snowstorm completely destroying your garden.

 

 

You don't think the water offshore here has warmed?     

 

3/28:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.3.28.2016.gif

 

4/11:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.11.2016.gif

[TT-SEA]

If that's true, then I guess you have 6 months of beautiful weather to look forward to. Won't change the regional picture in terms of anomalies, though.

 

 

Very true.   We can never change that!   

[Phil]

You think the water offshore here has not warmed?

 

3/28:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.3.28.2016.gif

 

4/11:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.11.2016.gif

You must have great eyesight, dude. What sticks out to me is a large cooling in the ENSO regions.

[Jesse]

How is A/S/S looking this year?

I think he's predicting a warm JAS.

[TT-SEA]

You must have great eyesight, dude. All I see is a dramatic cooling in the eastern ENSO regions.

 

[TT-SEA]

I think he's predicting a warm JAS.

 

 

Correct... you did actually predict that.     Just not as warm as the last two years.

[Jesse]

Correct... you did actually predict that.     Just not as warm as the last two years.

 

There's warm and there's WARM (the smiley comes with the second one, all part of the same word). You know, the kind of warm that is good for us.

[Front Ranger]

Talking about years like 1954, 1964, and 1970 is sort of meaningless. Those years barely even started with a Nino. We are running way warmer than those years already anyways.

 

2016 is running significantly warmer than every year on Phil's list. Probably not something that should be ignored when talking about the next few months.

 

Don't look now, but plenty of years had warm starts and then turned cool later in summer.

 

2007

2005

1983

1968

1961

 

And others. A cooler than normal late summer, especially September, is very much in play. Doesn't mean anyone is predicting a miserable, wet summer without lots of "nice weather".

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty interesting to note out of the 5 warmest Aprils for the Puget Sound lowlands 4 of them were prior to 1950.  It amazes me how uneven the warming for our region has been.  Some months have barely warmed at all or have even cooled slightly since 1900 while some (January in particular) have soared.

[TT-SEA]

Don't look now, but plenty of years had warm starts and then turned cool later in summer.

 

2007

2005

1983

1968

1961

 

And others. A cool late summer, especially September, is very much in play. Doesn't mean anyone is predicting a miserable, wet summer without lots of "nice weather".

 

1961 and 1968 started out with a weak Nina.  

 

2005 had a strange Nino that peaked in March and April.   Although that was a spectacular summer the entire way.

[snow_wizard]

Don't look now, but plenty of years had warm starts and then turned cool later in summer.

 

2007

2005

1983

1968

1961

 

And others. A cooler than normal late summer, especially September, is very much in play. Doesn't mean anyone is predicting a miserable, wet summer without lots of "nice weather".

 

Don't forget 1992.  That one torched hard the first half of the year.

[TT-SEA]

Don't forget 1992.  That one torched hard the first half of the year.

 

 

That is a much better match in terms of ENSO.

[TT-SEA]

It's pretty interesting to note out of the 5 warmest Aprils for the Puget Sound lowlands 4 of them were prior to 1950.  It amazes me how uneven the warming for our region has been.  Some months have barely warmed at all or have even cooled slightly since 1900 while some (January in particular) have soared.

 

 

We used to have even nicer summers from the late 1800s to the mid 1900s to go with generally colder winters.

[Jesse]

1961 and 1968 started out with a weak Nina.  

 

2005 had a strange Nino that peaked in March and April.   Although that was a spectacular summer the entire way.

 

The minute you start describing seasons in this highly subjective, anecdotal fashion, any argument about actual anomalies kind of goes out the window. You are on an entirely different playing field where you're making your own rules while arguing with people who are trying to make forecasts based on actual anomalies, and not just a Tim enjoyment factor.

 

2005 had a very cool September, fwiw.

[Front Ranger]

1961 and 1968 started out with a weak Nina.  

 

2005 had a strange Nino that peaked in March and April.   Although that was a spectacular summer the entire way.

 

You'll never find a perfect analog. But you were just talking about how this year has started so warm. So that was the point I was addressing.

[Front Ranger]

1961 and 1968 started out with a weak Nina.  

 

2005 had a strange Nino that peaked in March and April.   Although that was a spectacular summer the entire way.

 

Sure. But definitely cooler than normal towards the end. Coldest September in the past 20 years for many places.

 

By the way, I was there and actually experienced it. You didn't. :)

[TT-SEA]

You'll never find a perfect analog. But you were just talking about how this year has started so warm. So that was the point I was addressing.

 

OK.

 

I was saying that if we are looking at Phil's list of analogs... this year is running warmer than all of them.    And 1954, 1964, and 1970 should not even be on the list.   

[TT-SEA]

The minute you start describing seasons in this highly subjective, anecdotal fashion, any argument about actual anomalies kind of goes out the window. You are on an entirely different playing field where you're making your own rules while arguing with people who are trying to make forecasts based on actual anomalies, and not just a Tim enjoyment factor.

 

 

 

Fair enough.  

[Deweydog]

Good god can we fast forward 10 weeks so we can stop fretting about analogs and start fretting about the models and the number of consecutive 90+ degree days they show?

[Front Ranger]

OK.

 

I was saying that if we are looking at Phil's list of analogs... this year is running warmer than all of them.    And 1954, 1964, and 1970 should not even be on the list.   

 

Yup. And my point was that how a year starts does not determine how the summer ends up, especially late summer. Especially with shifting ENSO.

[Jesse]

60 to 49 at PDX in three hours with a good, soaking front. Nice to see the weather get a little life back, if only temporarily.

[TT-SEA]

Good god can we fast forward 10 weeks so we can stop fretting about analogs and start fretting about the models and the number of consecutive 90+ degree days they show?

 

No doubt!  

[Jesse]

Good god can we fast forward 10 weeks so we can stop fretting about analogs and start fretting about the models and the number of consecutive 90+ degree days they show?

 

The power of greyskull only goes so far. Dewey friendly summers with piles of 90 degree days can't last forever.

[TT-SEA]

60 to 49 at PDX in three hours with a good, soaking front. Nice to see the weather get a little life back, if only temporarily.

 

 

That is precisely why its nice.