Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 How are we structuring the low temperatures in accordance with the date change? Would a low temperature at 6AM on 4/17, for example, count as the low for 4/17 or overnight on 4/16?Whatever the high and low is within the calendar day. Just like how the NWS does it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 How are we structuring the low temperatures in accordance with the date change? Would a low temperature at 6AM on 4/17, for example, count as the low for 4/17 or overnight on 4/16? I think we compare to official CF6 data... midnight to midnight I believe. Makes it more difficult of course. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 PDX: 62/46 74/44 83/47 86/51 74/53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 PDX: 62/46 74/44 83/47 86/51 74/53No way. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Thanks, I'll have to restructure my lows. Will update after the 00z ECMWF. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 PDX: 62/46 74/44 83/47 86/51 74/53 Really? We are exactly the same for the first 2 days. And 1 degree different on Sunday. All comes down to the low temp on Monday morning between us! Go east wind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 PDX 4/15: 62/45 4/16: 71/44 4/17: 82/52 4/18: 87/57 4/19: 73/56 SEA 4/15: 60/44 4/16: 67/46 4/17: 75/50 4/18: 81/54 4/19: 71/53 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Couple of minor tweaks, otherwise let it ride... 60/4571/4282/4886/5370/53Egads! More clearing than I thought there'd be tonight. 60/4371/4282/4786/5370/53 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Really? We are exactly the same for the first 2 days. And 1 degree different on Sunday. All comes down to the low temp on Monday morning between us! Go east wind. I guess we are. I didn't look at anyone else's forecast before posting mine from my phone earlier. Great minds I suppose. Although now that I'm home I might make a couple last minute tweaks after browsing the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 SEA:4/15: 61/444/16: 68/464/17: 75/484/18: 83/554/19: 75/53 PDX:4/15: 62/464/16: 74/444/17: 84/474/18: 87/564/19: 74/54 Update... based on what is occurring now and for the 00Z ECMWF. Lock it in at 11:50 p.m. SEA:4/15: 61/444/16: 68/464/17: 75/484/18: 82/504/19: 77/53 PDX:4/15: 62/434/16: 74/444/17: 84/474/18: 87/544/19: 76/54 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 PDX: 62/46 74/44 83/47 86/51 74/53Finale: 61/43 73/41 83/46 86/51 75/53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 I'm pleasantly surprised with the turnout for this one. Part of me thought it might just be me and Matt again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 PDX 4/15: 62/454/16: 71/444/17: 82/524/18: 87/574/19: 73/56 SEA 4/15: 60/444/16: 67/464/17: 75/504/18: 81/544/19: 71/53 Slight adjustment since it's already 45 at PDX. PDX 4/15: 62/424/16: 71/444/17: 82/524/18: 87/574/19: 73/56 SEA 4/15: 60/444/16: 67/464/17: 75/504/18: 81/544/19: 71/53 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 PDX 4/15: 62/424/16: 73/414/17: 81/494/18: 86/544/19: 73/51 SEA 4/15: 60/454/16: 68/454/17: 74/514/18: 82/564/19: 72/52 Never really tried to forecast for down that way, so pretty much a shot in the dark by me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Minor updates based on latest guidance: SEA 4/15: 58/444/16: 67/474/17: 77/534/18: 85/534/19: 78/52 PDX 4/15: 60/414/16: 72/504/17: 81/584/18: 87/534/19: 76/52 No real changes from me. Reformatted lows to correct dates. SEA 4/15: 58/444/16: 67/444/17: 74/474/18: 84/544/19: 78/52 PDX 4/15: 61/414/16: 72/434/17: 81/504/18: 86/564/19: 80/52 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Finale: 61/43 73/41 83/46 86/51 75/53Follower. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Follower.Tonight's chilliness inspired me. Not hard to imagine PDX being close to 40 Saturday morning. We probably all went too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Tonight's chilliness inspired me. Not hard to imagine PDX being close to 40 Saturday morning. We probably all went too high.I dropped them from 43 to 42 this afternoon. The chilly afternoon told me to do it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 I'm pleasantly surprised with the turnout for this one. Part of me thought it might just be me and Matt again. You should have a fun time scoring this one. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Funny... PDX clouded up immediately after everyone had the last minute freak out. Good times. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Funny... PDX clouded up immediately after everyone had the last minute freak out. Good times.IR-satellite is your friend. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 I updated mine on the first page yesterday, FYI. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Looks like I already went too cold with the morning lows today. Darn cold bias! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Trying to figure out a mathematically fair way to score the people who did Seattle and Portland forecasts vs people who did only one or the other. I was thinking maybe take an average of their "departures" for high and low for each city for each day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Alright, got everyone's final forecasts copy/pasted onto a word file. Now we sit back and wait for temps to roll in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Morning lows: PDX: 42 SEA: 47 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Uh oh... Euro says a third day in the 80's is in the cards. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Uh oh... Euro says a third day in the 80's is in the cards.No way. That makes me feel a little better about going five degrees higher than you for Tuesday, at least. Cold bias!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 No way. That makes me feel a little better about going five degrees higher than you for Tuesday, at least. Cold bias!!!Mark might kick all of our asses. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Mark might kick all of our asses.True. This one could end up being an insanely warm biased mid-range forecasters dream come true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 True. This one could end up being an insanely warm biased mid-range forecasters dream come true. You guys are a couple of diametric broken clocks. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Trying to figure out a mathematically fair way to score the people who did Seattle and Portland forecasts vs people who did only one or the other. I was thinking maybe take an average of their "departures" for high and low for each city for each day.Maybe do seperate scores for PDX and SEA? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Morning lows: PDX: 42 SEA: 47Are you sure about these? I see PDX @ 44 & SEA @ 46 (including intra-hr) on the NWS site, WU, and WxBug. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Maybe do seperate scores for PDX and SEA?Yeah, but then things won't be numerically equivalent. If we are basing who wins off of sheer number of points gained (or lack thereof) based off how far they are off on individual highs and lows, then that would give people who made a forecast for only one station an unfair advantage. I think finding the average amount people were off on highs and low for PDX and SEA in the same time frame, then applying that as a single sum to their point count, is more fair. Puts everyone on a level playing field. Otherwise, we would need two separate contests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Are you sure about these? I see PDX @ 44 & SEA @ 46 (including intra-hr) on the NWS site, WU, and WxBug. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=SEA&num=60&raw=0&banner=off http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=pdx&num=60&raw=0&banner=off Probably best to stay away from Wunderground and WeatherBug for this sort of thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Yeah, but then things won't be numerically equivalent. If we are basing who wins off of sheer number of points gained (or lack thereof) based off how far they are off on individual highs and lows, then that would give people who made a forecast for only one station an unfair advantage. I think finding the average amount people were off on highs and low for PDX and SEA in the same time frame, then applying that as a single sum to their point count, is more fair.Yeah, I guess that makes more sense numerically. Reduces the luck factor a bit. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=SEA&num=60&raw=0&banner=off http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=pdx&num=60&raw=0&banner=off Probably best to stay away from Wunderground and WeatherBug for this sort of thing.Thanks. I didn't know we were including intra-hour observations because they're not officially counted as highs/lows for the day. I guess it doesn't matter for what we're doing, though. These were the hourly observations I was looking at. http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KSEA.html http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPDX.html Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Was actually looking at the NOAA site. I didn't know we were using intra-hour observations because NOAA/NWS doesnt count them as highs/lows. http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KSEA.html http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPDX.html Yes they do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Yes they do. Really? They don't count them here unless they persist for a certain degree of time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Really? They don't count them here unless they persist for a certain degree of time. That is the case here sometimes too. But if they appear on the six hour summary, that means they made the grade. That's why I waited until 11am PST to post official numbers. That is when the 6-hour MIN/MAX is reported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.