May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I'm sure you're rooting for something like that, though.

 

I'm referring to this beautiful, fully-phased, January style trough with +momentum flux incoming out of the Pacific. That'd create insanity from Montana to Maine in January. In June..hell yeah. #derechotrain

 

image.gif

 

Obviously I'm joking, as this has little chance of verifying. Still fun to dream, though.

 

 

Yeah... some crazy patterns on the GFS lately.    

[Phil]

Yeah... some crazy patterns on the GFS lately.

Either it's off its rocker and will cave to the Euro, or it'll score a coup with the upstream refractive block. Climo is obviously on the Euro's side here.

[GHweatherChris]

Awesome afternoon and evening. Mostly clear now and it appears Mars is making its appearance.

[Bryant]

CFS weekly forecast highlighting the overall idea which tropical forcing suggests. Shows a typical retrogression as forcing fades over Western Hemisphere and fires up once again over Eastern Hemisphere.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a lengthy stretch of 90s on the 0z gfs. June's fate as a warm month will be sealed in the first 10 days.

[Timmy Supercell]

Despite a bit of wind, today was pretty nice. For the start of a heat wave I didn't expect so much breeze on the east sides. 

 

73/35 today.

[Jesse]

Despite a bit of wind, today was pretty nice. For the start of a heat wave I didn't expect so much breeze on the east sides.

 

73/35 today.

Today was more the departure of a trough than the start of a heatwave.

[TT-SEA]

First time you can see the sunrise here since May 13th.     Only 17 days ago.  

 

[Tyler Mode]

I finally got one right.  A nice cool morning leading into our warm-up.  40.7 today.  Heading for around 80. 

 

This is my coolest low since 40 on the 10th. 

[Jesse]

I think there will be periods of warmth and coolness the next few months because I noticed other years had that too.

[Tyler Mode]

I think there will be periods of warmth and coolness the next few months because I noticed other years had that too.

I like that forecast.  I'm also predicting increasing darkness in about 3 weeks...Fall is just around the corner

[Phil]

So, GEFS vs EPS in the 11-15 day. Who wins? Climatology and skill scores suggest the ECMWF/EPS is probably correct on the idea of the jet extension (which is the way I'm leaning) but I personally am rooting for the GEFS.

 

A tough call regardless.

 

 

[Jesse]

So, GEFS vs EPS in the 11-15 day. Who wins? Climatology and skill scores suggest the ECMWF/EPS is probably correct on the idea of the jet extension (which is the way I'm leaning) but I personally am rooting for the GEFS.

 

A tough call regardless.

 

 

I always got the vibe you hated warm season troughing. Is there something special about that particular pattern?

[TT-SEA]

I always got the vibe you hated warm season troughing.

He hates heat and humidity there. You know... dewpoints in the 80s. Troughing like that gives them upper 70s with low dewpoints.

[Phil]

Looks like 1983 is in the top three CPC analogs on the CMC ensemble, 00z GEFS, and 06z GFS at both D+8 and D+11. Will be a good analog for the (large scale) circulatory tendencies this summer.

 

We'll probably have more in the way of high latitude blocking this year, however.

[Phil]

I always got the vibe you hated warm season troughing. Is there something special about that particular pattern?

Haha, quite the opposite. Deep summer troughs = severe weather and relatively comfortable temperatures.

 

I hate troughing here in April/May, only because thats our only opportunity to score comfortable weather before swamp a** season starts in June.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian went from being really aggressive with the deep trough in the long range to being really weak.

 

Here is 10 days out...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Looks like 1983 is in the top three CPC analogs on the CMC ensemble, 00z GEFS, and 06z GFS at both D+8 and D+11. Will be a good analog for the (large scale) circulatory tendencies this summer.

 

We'll probably have more in the way of high latitude blocking this year, however.

 

 

June of 1983 did not have more than 2 nice days in a row here all month.

 

Looks like we might start out June this year with 10 warm days.

 

The timing of the forcing waves seems to be more in line with 1988 and 1995.   

 

You can keep saying we are following 1983 all summer and I will love it if the models looks like they do right now.  

[Jesse]

12z GFS looks very similar to the EURO at day 10.

[Phil]

He hates heat and humidity there. You know... dewpoints in the 80s. Troughing like that gives them upper 70s with low dewpoints.

Upper 70s here in July/August would be a miracle. That's rarer than snow in Seattle (or DC, for that matter).

[Jesse]

Haha, quite the opposite. Deep summer troughs = severe weather and relatively comfortable temperatures.

 

I hate troughing here in April/May, only because thats our only opportunity to score comfortable weather before swamp a** season starts in June.

 

I see. I guess I remember Tim applauding you for your vitriol toward late-Spring troughing several weeks ago. But we are moving into different climo now.

[Jesse]

Upper 70s here in July/August would be a miracle. That's rarer than snow in Seattle (or DC, for that matter).

 

Sad thing is, it feels the same way here after the last couple summers.

[Phil]

June of 1983 did not have more than 2 nice days in a row here all month.

 

Looks like we might start out June this year with 10 warm days.

 

The timing of the forcing waves seems to be more in line with 1988 and 1995.

 

You can keep saying we are following 1983 all summer and I will love it if the models looks like they do right now.

I'm not saying everything will time perfectly in relation 1983. In fact, I'd argue the low frequency forcing will be biased stronger in the E-Hemisphere this summer, relative to 1983. Why would I be forecasting a blowtorch June if I thought we'd follow 1983 to an exact degree?

 

Overall, it's still a great analog.

[Jesse]

I'm not saying everything will time perfectly in relation 1983. In fact, I'd argue the low frequency forcing will be biased stronger in the E-Hemisphere this summer, relative to 1983.

 

Overall, it's still a great analog, however.

 

Analog years need to follow other analog years down to the day. Otherwise throw them out.

 

Unless, of course, they are a year you would prefer to follow. Then we can be flexible. 

[Phil]

Sad thing is, it feels the same way here after the last couple summers.

At least you have several years of general troughing and active weather upcoming with the multiyear Niña. We're about to enter a multi-year torch regime (regardless of solar until at least 2018).

 

Literally, La Niña/-QBO is the worst possible combo for us, both in winter and summer. You'll do fine when it's all said and done.

[Jesse]

At least you have several years of general troughing and active weather upcoming with the multiyear Niña. We're about to enter a multi-year torch regime, regardless of solar.

 

Literally, La Niña/-QBO is the worst possible combo for us, both in winter and summer.

 

Indeed. We have earned it.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not saying everything will time perfectly in relation 1983. In fact, I'd argue the low frequency forcing will be biased stronger in the E-Hemisphere this summer, relative to 1983. Why would I be forecasting a blowtorch June if I thought we'd follow 1983 to an exact degree?

 

Overall, it's still a great analog.

 

 

Right... I am hoping that those small changes lead to big differences locally.   And that we do not have any volcanic influence this summer.  

 

Like I said... you can be exactly right about 1983 being a good analog on the large scale but we still will likely have a better summer than 1983.    The next 10 days will be nicer than anything in both June and July of 1983.

[Jesse]

Speaking of solar, unless they manage to find and number another sunspot that no one can even see, the sun appears to be on the verge of going blank soon.

[Front Ranger]

CFS weekly forecast highlighting the overall idea which tropical forcing suggests. Shows a typical retrogression as forcing fades over Western Hemisphere and fires up once again over Eastern Hemisphere.

I'll take it. We've been able to avoid any real heat to this point, some 90+ is inevitable soon, but that looks nice.

[Phil]

Analog years need to follow other analog years down to the day. Otherwise throw them out.

 

Unless, of course, they are a year you would prefer to follow. Then we can be flexible.

I lol'ed.

 

If patterns emulated analogs to an exact extent, there'd be no need for seasonal models (which still tend to perform worse than the analog aggregates, when all is said and done).

 

Key is finding the right analog years. That's often tough to do.

[TT-SEA]

Upper 70s here in July/August would be a miracle. That's rarer than snow in Seattle (or DC, for that matter).

 

 

Upper 70s is about normal here... I would love it to be between 78-82 all summer long.    I am not a fan of big heat.   It causes problems and usually results in a complete flip to being cloudy and cool for a few days.     I would rather ride the middle ground of pleasantness.    But nature does not really give a crap what we want.  

[TT-SEA]

Speaking of solar, unless they manage to find and number another sunspot that no one can even see, the sun appears to be on the verge of going blank soon.

 

That is the best news of all.

 

Low solar in this situation with a developing Nina seems to be a great combo for nice summers and blocky winters.

[Phil]

Indeed. We have earned it.

Agree, you guys deserve it more than anyone.

 

I read something on NOAA a few weeks ago stating that since 2014, Northwest North America has experienced the most persistent warm anomalies of any place on the globe, except the Arctic.

[Jesse]

Agree, you guys deserve it more than anyone.

 

I read something on NOAA a few weeks ago stating that since 2014, Northwest North America has experienced the most persistent warm anomalies of any place on the globe, except the Arctic.

 

I definitely believe it. Unlike anything I have ever experienced in my lifetime.

[Phil]

Upper 70s is about normal here... I would love it to be between 78-82 all summer long. I am not a fan of big heat. It causes problems and usually results in a complete flip to being cloudy and cool for a few days. I would rather ride the middle ground of pleasantness. But nature does not really give a crap what we want.

The bolded is unfortunately true.

 

I can handle heat if it's not oppressively humid. We visited Denver a few years ago, and despite it being 95 degrees, I barely broke a sweat, despite being dressed in a suit/tie. Dry heat is nice, especially in the evening when things cool off a bit.

[Phil]

Speaking of solar, unless they manage to find and number another sunspot that no one can even see, the sun appears to be on the verge of going blank soon.

Interesting to note the poor synchronization in the polar magnetic fields. History suggests that's a precursor to a weak follow-up cycle, though the competing methodology (overall N-S polar field strength) predicts cycle 25 will end up similar to cycle 24 (current cycle). Will be interesting to watch unfold.

[Phil]

Looks like the GFS/GEFS are slowly caving to the ECMWF/EPS. In hindsight, it was silly of me to suggest the possibility of any other outcome. #biasedforecaster

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the GFS/GEFS are slowly caving to the ECMWF/EPS. In hindsight, it was silly of me to suggest the possibility of any other outcome. #biasedforecaster

 

 

Now watch... the ECMWF will flip again.   

[Phil]

Now watch... the ECMWF will flip again.

I'd be down with that, though given the GFS's horrific skill scores as of late, I think there's a better chance I win the powerball.

[Jesse]

Now watch... the ECMWF will flip again.   

 

Troughy June 10th-24th?