May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

SUCCESS!!

 

Even with a CAP in place. I managed a small weak thundershower. Heard 3 rumbles. Not very close. Sounded maybe 4-5 ish miles away. 

 

7th t'storm day so far this year and it's only 05/03. 

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/qs6qmo.jpg

http://i66.tinypic.com/302q8ph.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/wqoqk4.jpg

 

On radar, extremely pulse in nature. 

[Front Ranger]

I just slapped my knee!

 

Global warming is no joke.

[Jesse]

Global warming is no joke.

That's the problem, you seem to think it is.

 

You've gone from earnest denier to denier in Bob Saget's clothing. I almost find the second one more irritating/offputting.

[Front Ranger]

The analog talk for this summer has been unprecedented.  It's been pre-winter level hand wringing.  Heavy anticipation for what will likely end up being an average or above average summer temperature-wise as we all try to deny ENSO lag.  

 

I suppose it makes sense considering there's a whole lot of analogs out there for summers like that.  

 

The result of 3 straight very warm to record warm summers, and now the ENSO flip. People are curious when things will change.

 

And Phil.

[Front Ranger]

That's the problem, you seem to think it is.

 

You've gone from earnest denier to denier in Bob Saget's clothing. I almost find the second one more irritating/offputting.

 

Bob Saget is a god (of course). 

 

But you read me all wrong (not unusual). First, my comment was simply a reference to BLIsnowman and previous comments about the climate moving north. And Medford being ridiculously hot the past 3 summers. Second, I've never been a denier. 

 

If I was the type to let every little thing get to me, I'd find it irritating/offputting that you still say that.

[Deweydog]

The result of 3 straight very warm to record warm summers, and now the ENSO flip. People are curious when things will change.

 

And Phil.

Phil has certainly done a good job stirring that pot.

[Jesse]

Phil has certainly done a good job stirring that pot.

I think Flatiron's first paragraph of reasons is pretty valid, though. We are coming off an unprecedented stretch of summers with the first large scale ENSO shift in several years in the cards.

 

I don't see the issue with all of discussion. It's kind of nice to have other seasons besides winter getting attention here sometimes.

[Front Ranger]

I think low solar is going to make 2017 a pretty decent summer as well.   One we both enjoy.    

 

Solar was pretty low in summer 2008.

 

Sun angle was pretty high, though. (That one's for Jesse!)

[Deweydog]

You first.

You know me... I can't possibly relax when we're on the precipice of our predictably pleasant warm season.

[Phil]

I said 1992 was an analog year earlier and then was mocked by Phil for even suggesting it since the Nino did not transition to a Nina that year.

Yeah, that's because it's not a good analog year, Mr. Niño.

 

What do you think will happen when forcing goes Niña/-AAM while 1992 was Niño/+AAM? Not to mention opposite QBOs, a poleward BDC/O^3 profile photochemically obliterated by CFCs/SO^2, etc.

[Deweydog]

I think Flatiron's first paragraph of reasons is pretty valid, though. We are coming of an unprecedented stretch of summers with the first large scale ENSO shift in several years in the cards.

 

I don't see the issue with all of discussion. It's kind of nice to have other seasons besides winter getting attention here sometimes.

Two out the three summers were pretty rudderless from an ENSO perspective. Combine that with the fact even decidely negative/positive ENSO conditions aren't necessarily a big driver here during the summer months and it makes things seem a little overblown. Just my take, take it or leave it.

[Timmy Supercell]

If storm season continues as the last 2 have, we're looking at 30-35 thunderstorm days in Klamath Falls this year. 

 

By the way, interesting thread development... 

[Front Ranger]

Two out the three summers were pretty rudderless from an ENSO perspective. Combine that with the fact even decidely negative/positive ENSO conditions aren't necessarily a big driver here during the summer months and it makes things seem a little overblown. Just my take, take it or leave it.

 

Ah, but the PDO...that flip it did in early 2014 was pretty remarkable. Not unrelated, the Blob. So even though ENSO wasn't going crazy until this past winter/fall, some pretty interesting/extreme things have been going on in the Pacific.

[Jesse]

GFS continues to be way warmer for next weekend and beyond than the Euro.

[Deweydog]

Ah, but the PDO...that flip it did in early 2014 was pretty remarkable. Not unrelated, the Blob. So even though ENSO wasn't going crazy, some pretty interesting/extreme things have been going on in the Pacific.

For sure. The PDO paints the picture quite nicely. Unprecedented run, which is still going strong for now. April's number should be a crooked one.

 

Never know when that report card is gonna change though...

[Phil]

Phil has certainly done a good job stirring that pot.

Lol, what pot am I stirring? It's not my problem if the discussion of ENSO/summer analogs induces ventricular fibrillation among a certain few.

[Deweydog]

Lol, what pot am I stirring? It's not my problem if the discussion of ENSO/summer analogs induces ventricular fibrillation among a certain few.

Don't get me wrong, I love your physical discussion stuff but there's a bit of a sensational aspect to it.

[Phil]

You know me... I can't possibly relax when we're on the precipice of our predictably pleasant warm season.

You try so hard to appear "above the fray" that it's literally become purpose of your existence here.

 

At least try to be stealthy with it.

[Phil]

Don't get me wrong, I love your physical discussion stuff but there's a bit of a sensational aspect to it.

The idea of a cooler than average J/A/S aggregate is sensational? I don't get it.

[Deweydog]

You try so hard to appear "above the fray" that it's literally become purpose of your existence here.

 

At least try to be stealthy with it.

This is so old.

 

When there's actually something going on, I'm right there licking the windows with everyone else.

[Deweydog]

The idea of a cooler than average J/A/S aggregate is sensational? I don't get it.

No. But you tend to cater to your audience for attention purposes, which has been a detriment in the past from an accuracy standpoint. Maybe you're not doing it now, but it causes pause for thought.

[Timmy Supercell]

This is so old.

 

When there's actually something going on, I'm right there licking the windows with everyone else.

 

What we do when model riding and when Timmy Supercell gets a thunderstorm.

http://i67.tinypic.com/rmvc7k.jpg

[Jesse]

Some showers building up the valley.

[Phil]

No. But you tend to cater to your audience for attention purposes, which has been a detriment in the past from an accuracy standpoint. Maybe you're not doing it now, but it causes pause for thought.

Eh, I eventually figured out that short term gain = long term pain in regards to hyping stuff for attention here. Oh, and I kinda got a bit older.

 

I'm not catering to anyone.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Yeah, I would even take that summer compared to the last two. Very warm in May and June falling closer to average (although still a bit warmer than normal) in July and August.

 

Only five 90+ days in July and five 90+ in August , interspread with a lot of marine layer days and even a few rainy periods thrown in there, as well as cooler nights overall. Absolute heaven compared to the last two summers.

You would like the summers in Eureka, CA. I think they have more fog than even the Oregon and Washington coasts. Many days it fails to reach 60 F.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, that's because it's not a good analog year, Mr. Niño.

 

What do you think will happen when forcing goes Niña/-AAM while 1992 was Niño/+AAM? Not to mention opposite QBOs, a poleward BDC/O^3 profile photochemically obliterated by CFCs/SO^2, etc.

 

 

You are referring to volcanic influence here correct?

[Phil]

You are referring to volcanic influence here correct?

Yes, volcanic sulfur-dioxide and volcanic/anthropogenic CFCs.

[Deweydog]

Nice little blow up down yonder.

[Jesse]

Nice little blow up down yonder.

Indeed. Heavy rain here now.

 

Hoping for some thunder.

[TT-SEA]

The middle of next week seems to define the term 'rudderless'.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_192_precip_p03.gif

[James Jones]

500mb heights are above normal over us for every frame of the 00z GFS, and this run isn't an outlier. Looking like this month could contend for a record warm May in a lot of places.

 

Feels silly to say that on the 3rd of the month, but record warmth has been so easy to come by recently that I can't help but think it's a good possibility.

[BLI snowman]

We need to start doing monthly temp anomaly forecast contests.

[Jesse]

We need to start doing monthly temp anomaly forecast contests.

I'm game.

 

I'm actually planning on making a June-September anomaly forecasting contest in the near future.

[Timmy Supercell]

Month to month is tricky; last year July ranked 21st warmest and August was 19th warmest Mean temperature in Klamath Falls and I still had the warmest overall summer. June 2015 was so hot it basically decided summer's fate by itself. And since July/August both normally are warm months, having normal months did little in terms of taking down the average for last summer.

 

I had the warmest first 3 months of a year in Jan-Mar 2015, yet April and May were exactly average. September was nothing special. I did have kind of an Indian Summer in October last year, so the only 2 really outstanding months in Klamath Falls were June and October.

 

I'd say an overall year is much easier to predict than an individual month.

[Karl Bonner]

It's interesting to watch how quickly temps in both the Northern and Equatorial Pacific are collapsing now.  They've been steadily getting warmer almost every year, since the spring of 2011.  Lo and behold...each of the past five years was warmer than the previous year. 

 

My gut feeling is that the current warm cycle is going to be over by year's end.  It will be replaced by another, nuanced cool cycle - nuanced due to the ongoing effects of higher CO2 levels.  The big debate that's making weather geeks talk right now, though, is just how the end game plays itself out.  We could just see our warm departures gradually peter out by year's end.  Or they could fall off a cliff at some point this summer or fall, with a cool upper-level pattern capturing the PNW in a matter of a few days and then staying firmly entrenched for months afterward.  The next few months in the weather geekosphere are going to feel as weird and contentious as our nation's election cycle has proven to be.  <_>

[bainbridgekid]

We need to start doing monthly temp anomaly forecast contests.

Too easy. Just take the record warm anomaly for each month and roll with it.

[BLI snowman]

Too easy. Just take the record warm anomaly for each month and roll with it.

 

This month is certainly an easy call in that regard. Probably July, August, and October as well, since that's an annual thing now.

[BLI snowman]

Really enjoying the potential for consistent gloom today. 

[Jesse]

Really enjoying the potential for consistent gloom today.

It really is a wonderful thing.

[BLI snowman]

It really is a wonderful thing.

 

Unfortunately not a lot of precip, but the lawn could use a good soaking going into the next 2-3 weeks of ridging.