May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

This pattern sure feels like its going to lead to a wet/cool period from mid-May through mid-June.      Just going by intuition and a feeling I get from having looked at pretty much every spring since 1877 over the last couple months and seeing how patterns evolve here.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty big explosion of cells tomorrow afternoon and evening per the HRRR...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016050300/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f26.png

[Jesse]

HRRR was an epic fail for today.

[bainbridgekid]

Had a brief period of 81 degree rain this evening when I was driving through Shoreline. 

 

Big drops and it just felt ridiculously warm to be raining.

[TT-SEA]

Had a brief period of 81 degree rain this evening when I was driving through Shoreline. 

 

Big drops and it just felt ridiculously warm to be raining.

 

 

The drops were huge.

[Bryant]

Seen a bit of lightning in Ferndale around 9, but never heard the thunder. Must have been quite far in the distance

[luminen]

I've been hearing thunder here for the past 30 minutes but it's not very loud. No rain hitting the ground but it's cloudy.

[BLI snowman]

Totally ridiculous.

 

Has there been any spring in history comparable to this one up there?

 

Not for extreme heat events. The 83 last month was historic and today's 86 also set a record for the earliest that mark has been reached. 

 

Seattle's warm season climate is reaching Bellingham, after Portland's warm season climate reached Seattle in 2014. 

[bainbridgekid]

86 at BLI today. Not sure why we're overachieving so much.

4 degrees warmer than they ever got the entire 2011 Summer.

[ShawniganLake]

Wildfire season is off to a busy start in bc, as it has been warm across the entire province.  Close to 40,000 acres have burned in recent days across the North, and ground crews have been pulled back from aggressive fire behavior. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly Mark Nelsen made a comment on a fb group today that he is hoping for a cooler summer "Another hot summer would be weird."

[TT-SEA]

Nice sunrise this morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

The HRRR continues to show an explosion of activity tonight while the other models don't show much.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016050311/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f18.png

[Bham_Guy]

4 degrees warmer than they ever got the entire 2011 Summer.

 

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if yesterday ends up being the warmest day of the year.

[Jesse]

First half of May is looking really warm at this point. Basically all of the cool ensemble members evaporated the last few runs.

[Jesse]

12z EURO is cooler overall from this weekend onward. At odds with the GFS.

[James Jones]

First half of May is looking really warm at this point. Basically all of the cool ensemble members evaporated the last few runs.

This spring has been pretty 1992ish so far, and May looks like it's going to be similar too. I'd take the winter that followed.

[Jesse]

This spring has been pretty 1992ish so far, and May looks like it's going to be similar too. I'd take the winter that followed.

 

Yeah, I would even take that summer compared to the last two. Very warm in May and June falling closer to average (although still a bit warmer than normal) in July and August.

 

Only five 90+ days in July and five 90+ in August , interspread with a lot of marine layer days and even a few rainy periods thrown in there, as well as cooler nights overall. Absolute heaven compared to the last two summers.

[Front Ranger]

This spring has been pretty 1992ish so far, and May looks like it's going to be similar too. I'd take the winter that followed.

 

Before someone else says it...PINATUBO!!!

[James Jones]

Yeah, I would even take that summer compared to the last two. Very warm in May and June falling closer to average (although still a bit warmer than normal) in July and August.

 

Only five 90+ days in July and five 90+ in August , interspread with a lot of marine layer days and even a few rainy periods thrown in there, as well as cooler nights overall. Absolute heaven compared to the last two summers.

I think pretty much everybody on this board would be fine with a 1992 type summer (at least until the somewhat cooler and cloudier than normal September). It had a good mix of everything.

[James Jones]

Before someone else says it...PINATUBO!!!

Hopefully this fuels a debate between Tim and Phil about ENSO, volcanic contamination, and summer analogs. That would be a really fresh, new, and interesting discussion.

[Timmy Supercell]

This just looks like another tricky day for storms. I have been overcast all day and morning. Not a bit of sun. Eastern section of my county had some convection move through but doesn't seem like anything else is trying to form at the moment. I see a cap is still in place in much of SW Oregon. Ouch. 

[TT-SEA]

I said 1992 was an analog year earlier and then was mocked by Phil for even suggesting it since the Nino did not transition to a Nina that year.   

 

Sure seems like the volcanic influence kicked in during the middle of 1992 and was still going in 1993 which was a really strange summer across North America.     There is speculation that volcanic influence enhanced the super storm in the East in March of 1993 and led to massive flooding in the Midwest that summer.  

 

I could still see the rest of this year playing out like 1992.    Just not sure about the ENSO situation though.

[Deweydog]

Fun will be when this summer ends up dissimilar in some ways, similar in others to almost every summer in the PNW's climate history.

 

Expect the unexpected!

[Jesse]

Fun will be when this summer ends up dissimilar in some ways, similar in others to almost every summer in the PNW's climate history.

 

Expect the unexpected!

Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford.

 

Now known as "The New Fresno".

[Jesse]

Now known as "The New Fresno".

I just slapped my knee!

[Timmy Supercell]

Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford.

 

Speaking of Medford... In 2013 they had a "record" summer... In 2014 they had a "record" summer... In 2015 they had a "record" summer.

 

Seriously, how does a city have 3 back-back record summers? And I think in 2006 that was their previous record before this 3 year mega stretch of hot mess.

[Jesse]

Speaking of Medford... In 2013 they had a "record" summer... In 2014 they had a "record" summer... In 2015 they had a "record" summer.

 

Seriously, how does a city have 3 back-back record summers? And I think in 2006 that was their previous record before this 3 year mega stretch of hot mess.

 

Another record hot summer seems like a reasonable prediction.

[Timmy Supercell]

I found these on NWS Medford Facebook page... Apparently Roseburg did the exact same thing as Medford last 3 years.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/rsznh2.jpg

http://i64.tinypic.com/xf48j6.jpg

 

And Klamath Falls out of curiosity. June wasn't a surprise but I didn't expect the overall summer to be all that hot. August seemed like a normal month, and July wasn't too hot.

http://i67.tinypic.com/2ytpwkx.jpg

[Deweydog]

Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford.

 

The analog talk for this summer has been unprecedented.  It's been pre-winter level hand wringing.  Heavy anticipation for what will likely end up being an average or above average summer temperature-wise as we all try to deny ENSO lag.  

 

I suppose it makes sense considering there's a whole lot of analogs out there for summers like that.  

[Jesse]

The analog talk for this summer has been unprecedented. It's been pre-winter level hand wringing. Heavy anticipation for what will likely end up being an average or above average summer temperature-wise as we all try to deny ENSO lag.

 

I suppose it makes sense considering there's a whole lot of analogs out there for summers like that.

I will be happy with basically anything not top tier for heat/humidity, as you pointed out yesterday. Lowered standards, sure. The last few years have been rough.

 

All of the cooler than average summer talk has been making Tim nervous, but it will probably end up being pretty tolerable for him when all is said and done. Now 2017 on the other hand...

[Timmy Supercell]

During this stretch, I may have to BEG to mother nature for a t'storm.... It looks difficult to have one now.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/33ju63o.jpg

[TT-SEA]

I will be happy with basically anything not top tier for heat/humidity, as you pointed out yesterday. Lowered standards, sure. The last few years have been rough.

 

All of the cooler than average summer talk has been making Tim nervous, but it will probably end up being pretty tolerable for him when all is said and done. Now 2017 on the other hand...

 

 

I think low solar is going to make 2017 a pretty decent summer as well.   One we both enjoy.    

[Deweydog]

I will be happy with basically anything not top tier for heat/humidity, as you pointed out yesterday. Lowered standards, sure. The last few years have been rough.

 

All of the cooler than average summer talk has been making Tim nervous, but it will probably end up being pretty tolerable for him when all is said and done. Now 2017 on the other hand...

You both are pretty jumpy. Nothing really new, but you'd think the next four or five months of weather was going to define us as a civilization or something.

[Jesse]

You both are pretty jumpy. Nothing really new, but you'd think the next four or five months of weather was going to define us as a civilization or something.

 

Meh, lower your post count and then maybe we can talk about the futility of weather talk without being too ironic.

[Deweydog]

Meh, lower your post count and then maybe we can talk about the futility of weather talk without being too ironic.

Has nothing to do with post counts. People can post all day long without being jumpy.

[Jesse]

Has nothing to do with post counts. People can post all day long without being jumpy.

 

No need to get all jumpy, then.

[Deweydog]

No need to get all jumpy, then.

Exactly. Try it! You might like it!

[Jesse]

Exactly. Try it! You might like it!

 

You first.