July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

PERSONAL ATTACK!

Not at all... pure numbers and I used "we".

 

Changed it before your post to the models which is more accurate anyways.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z ECMWF has 850mb temperature anomalies easily surpassing -20F over the PNW in the long range. About -13C over OR, almost -30F. Wow.

Illustration of a cold bias in the models.

[Front Ranger]

Not at all... pure numbers and I used "we".

 

Changed it before your post to the models which is more accurate anyways.

There's been a couple times things got out of hand with you and Phil, but for the most part the protesting about personal attacks is pretty lame.

[TT-SEA]

There's been a couple times things got out of hand with you and Phil, but for the most part the protesting about personal attacks is pretty lame.

We were recently heavily warned again to not make it personal.

[Bryant]

There's been a couple times things got out of hand with you and Phil, but for the most part the protesting about personal attacks is pretty lame.

Sent you a PM (not related to above)

[Phil]

Well, 18z GEFS just swung colder by a significant margin in the extended range.

 

Looking Iike the first cooler than average July regionwide since 2012 (I think that was the last time it happened?).

[TT-SEA]

SEA ended up with 73/57 today.

 

Perfectly normal for the day with a 0 departure... continuing the theme of a normal month there. SEA seems to be about the average of all the stations as well... some of which are a little above normal and some a little below normal. In other words... it's not running unusually warm there compared to the region.

[Phil]

SEA ended up with 73/57 today.

 

Perfectly normal for the day with a 0 departure... continuing the theme of a normal month there. SEA seems to be about the average of all the stations as well... some of which are a little above normal and some a little below normal. In other words... it's not running unusually warm there compared to the region.

It's going to be a cooler than average month at most, if not all stations. I have SEA at ~ -0.5 for the month in the forecast contest, so I think I'll be on target, if not a little bit warm.

[TT-SEA]

It's going to be a cooler than average month at most, if not all stations. I have SEA at ~ -0.5 for the month in the forecast contest, so I think I'll be on target, if not a little bit warm.

Maybe.

[Phil]

Maybe.

What are your thoughts? I'm curious (won't critique them).

[TT-SEA]

What are your thoughts? I'm curious (won't critique them).

The second half of July runs a little warmer than the first half and SEA has a small positive anomaly.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS looks like it has come back to reality and matches the 12z ECMWF quite nicely.  It would appear the upcoming troughs will be more favorably placed for below normal temps as opposed to what we have seen so far this month.  It is nothing more than really bad luck we haven't seen some pretty large minus departures for the month to date as it is.  It's still very noteworthy SEA will go for nearly half a month if not longer before reaching 80 this month.  Thursday is the only day in sight they may have a shot at reaching that level.

 

No question if the mean troughing continues the odds will catch up with us on seeing some big minuses.

[Jesse]

This also looks like the first time in a very long time that PDX makes it through mid-month without hitting 85.

[Front Ranger]

We were recently heavily warned again to not make it personal.

 

Ok. But there were no personal attacks today.

[Front Ranger]

SEA ended up with 73/57 today.

 

Perfectly normal for the day with a 0 departure... continuing the theme of a normal month there. SEA seems to be about the average of all the stations as well... some of which are a little above normal and some a little below normal. In other words... it's not running unusually warm there compared to the region.

 

The 18z GFS looks like it has come back to reality and matches the 12z ECMWF quite nicely.  It would appear the upcoming troughs will be more favorably placed for below normal temps as opposed to what we have seen so far this month.  It is nothing more than really bad luck we haven't seen some pretty large minus departures for the month to date as it is.  It's still very noteworthy SEA will go for nearly half a month if not longer before reaching 80 this month.  Thursday is the only day in sight they may have a shot at reaching that level.

 

No question if the mean troughing continues the odds will catch up with us on seeing some big minuses.

 

Actually some pretty chilly anomalies in parts of the region, which backs up what you're saying SW.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Actually some pretty chilly anomalies in parts of the region, which backs up what you're saying SW.

 

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

 

Mt Rainier!   

 

And Ritzville.  

 

11 days is not just luck... its the pattern.

 

Maybe with a little different luck we would have enjoyed what the hot spots of Astoria, Yakima, and Chelan have experienced.  

[Bryant]

Mt Rainier!   

 

And Ritzville.  

 

11 days is not just luck... its the pattern.

 

Maybe with a little different luck we would have enjoyed what the hot spots of Astoria, Yakima, and Chelan have experienced.  

 

 

The past 2 summers delivered plenty of heat, the cooler weather is welcomed

[TT-SEA]

The past 2 summers delivered plenty of heat, the cooler weather is welcomed

 

 

Bellingham is never hot.    

[Phil]

Woah, huge changes in the GFS over eastern Canada/NATL at just 84hrs. This run will be different, not sure how just yet.

[Jesse]

The past 2 summers delivered plenty of heat, the cooler weather is welcomed

That map shows about 80% of the NW below average too. I would say the warm spots are the outliers.

 

PDX will be -1.2 after today. No easy feat. It has been notoriously hard to get negative anomalies there the last couple years.

[TT-SEA]

The colder anomaly spots is what was being discussed... not the slightly below normal covering most of the I-5 corridor.  

 

The original point is that it was just bad luck that we have not seen more significant cold anomalies.    

 

My point is that there are also areas with positive anomalies.    So with a little different luck we could have had that as well.

 

11 days does not have much to do with luck.   Its been slightly cool across most of the region ignoring the small areas of more extreme departures either way.   

 

Also consider that 10 days ago the models were showing between -7 and -10 departures across the region by now and 850mb anomalies of -20C.    None of which happened.   

[Jesse]

Nice night out. Mid-60s with a nice and low DP near 50.

 

Looking forward to a little rain tomorrow. Then we're off to Montana Wednesday morning.

[Front Ranger]

Mt Rainier!   

 

And Ritzville.  

 

11 days is not just luck... its the pattern.

 

Maybe with a little different luck we would have enjoyed what the hot spots of Astoria, Yakima, and Chelan have experienced.  

 

The only reason SEA is close to normal is mild low temps. Weren't you the one arguing a couple years ago that what really matters for weather is what happens during the day? 

 

Since 6/7, SEA has had 2 days where the temp reached 80+.

 

In that same period, there have been 25 days that failed to reach 75. 14 days in the 60s.

 

Last year, SEA saw 19 highs of 80+ in the same period. Only 4 days that failed to reach 75. 1 day in the 60s.

 

Obviously, 2015 was a far cry from what 2016 has been so far. But even in a normal summer, only 2 80+ days from 6/7 to 7/11 is decidedly below normal.

[Jesse]

The only reason SEA is close to normal is mild low temps. Weren't you the one arguing a couple years ago that what really matters for weather is what happens during the day?

 

Since 6/7, SEA has had 2 days where the temp reached 80+.

 

In that same period, there have been 25 days that failed to reach 75. 14 days in the 60s.

 

Last year, SEA saw 19 highs of 80+ in the same period. Only 4 days that failed to reach 75. 1 day in the 60s.

 

Obviously, 2015 was a far cry from what 2016 has been so far. But even in a normal summer, only 2 80+ days from 6/7 to 7/11 is decidedly below normal.

Not to mention PDX failing to see 90 for over a month now.

 

Also no 85+ temperatures in July so far. If they make it through Wednesday/Thursday (could be close Thursday) it will be the first July in years that they haven't seen any 85+ temps in the first half.

 

It hasn't been crazy cold or anything, but it has been a very notable drop off from last summer. From record heat last year to an almost complete lack of heat now moving into the heart of summer.

[TT-SEA]

The only reason SEA is close to normal is mild low temps. Weren't you the one arguing a couple years ago that what really matters for weather is what happens during the day? 

 

Since 6/7, SEA has had 2 days where the temp reached 80+.

 

In that same period, there have been 25 days that failed to reach 75. 14 days in the 60s.

 

Last year, SEA saw 19 highs of 80+ in the same period. Only 4 days that failed to reach 75. 1 day in the 60s.

 

Obviously, 2015 was a far cry from what 2016 has been so far. But even in a normal summer, only 2 80+ days from 6/7 to 7/11 is decidedly below normal.

 

 

What the hell are we discussing now??

 

Who was saying 2016 was like 2015?   

 

So now we only care about half of the anomalies?     

 

It is what it is.    

 

I was thinking the period from 5/15 through 7/10 has been cooler than normal overall earlier today.   I made the point that there has been only 2 weeks of ridging in there.

[Front Ranger]

The average high at SEA so far this July is 71.7. 1981-2010 average for the month is 75.8.

[Phil]

The 00z GFS is an icebox. I'm also suspicious of the outrageously high wavenumber it's depicting. Have to wonder if the EPAC hurricanes/associated poleward WAFs are giving it problems.

[Deweydog]

Good lord, people. It's been a modestly cool pattern. Could we possibly complicate any more?

[TT-SEA]

The average high at SEA so far this July is 71.7. 1981-2010 average for the month is 75.8.

 

 

A warmer days and cooler nights pattern with the same overall average would be preferable to me... but it is what it is.  

[Jesse]

Good lord, people. It's been a modestly cool pattern. Could we possibly complicate any more?

Basically what I just said but not quite as harsh.

[Front Ranger]

Good lord, people. It's been a modestly cool pattern. Could we possibly complicate any more?

 

Only one person here is making multiple posts a day about a certain airport's anomalies hovering around average...

 

The January 2017 Seattle Snowpocalypse / Portland Polar Express cannot get here soon enough.

[TT-SEA]

Only one person here is making multiple posts a day about a certain airport's anomalies hovering around average...

 

The January 2017 Seattle Snowpocalypse / Portland Polar Express cannot get here soon enough.

 

 

We have a contest to consider!

 

And now that we are through 7/10... its time to assess how the models predicted the anomalies in that period.   Not well it appears.   

[TT-SEA]

 

 

11 days does not have much to do with luck.   Its been slightly cool across most of the region ignoring the small areas of more extreme departures either way.   

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Not to mention PDX failing to see 90 for over a month now.

 

Also no 85+ temperatures in July so far. If they make it through Wednesday/Thursday (could be close Thursday) it will be the first July in years that they haven't seen any 85+ temps in the first half.

 

It hasn't been crazy cold or anything, but it has been a very notable drop off from last summer. From record heat last year to an almost complete lack of heat now moving into the heart of summer.

 

Bingo. Tim is trying his darndest to downplay it, but that's ok. No one has forgotten his spring time claims that persistence would win out in summer 2016.

 

It is what it is.

[TT-SEA]

Bingo. Tim is trying his darndest to downplay it, but that's ok. No one has forgotten his spring time claims that persistence would win out in summer 2016.

 

What are you talking about???

 

I just asked for the map from mid-May through now this morning because I thought it had been cool regionwide in that period and its been mostly troughy.

 

Numbers don't lie.   Its just stats.   Not subjective.

[Jesse]

Only one person here is making multiple posts a day about a certain airport's anomalies hovering around average...

 

 

It all boils down to a strong compulsion to mock Phil's comment from 9 days ago. To Phil's credit, he has been doing a good job shrugging it off today.

 

I think we can all agree that the dead horse has been more than beaten at this point.

[Phil]

Lol, 00z GFS blows up 5 EPAC hurricanes in 10 days, phases two of them, then phases the complex with the west coast trough, only to split it behind a subsidence wave and blow up a 6th hurricane.

 

I wonder what the likelyhood of this actually verifying is

[TT-SEA]

Lol, 00z GFS blows up 5 EPAC hurricanes in 10 days, phases two of them, then phases the complex with the west coast trough, only to split it behind a subsidence wave and blow up a 6th hurricane.

 

I wonder what the likelyhood of this actually verifying is

 

 

Do we get more interference in the models this time of year with tropical systems in play?

[TT-SEA]

Not mocking Phil... he was just reporting what the models showed at the time.   Pointing out a cold bias in the models looking at this recent period.   Might be good to keep that in mind.

[Phil]

It all boils down to a strong compulsion to mock Phil's comment from 9 days ago. To Phil's credit, he has been doing a of job shrugging it off today.

 

I think we can all agree that the dead horse has been more than beaten.

If a lighthearted comment I made 10 days ago (describing one 00z ECMWF run) is all Tim has left in the tank, I must be doing pretty well.