July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

89!

Pretty impressive considering thicknesses today were only in the mid 560's.

[TT-SEA]

You're taking that completely out of context. I never said "surface departures". My only reference in that exchange was to 850mb temperatures. No models had -10F departures.

 

 

They did.  We even gave you credit for it when we saw -10F show up in Idaho over a 10 day period.    You took the credit.  

 

Bill Clinton school of misdirection.  

[Phil]

Not in our maritime climate in July with a warm air mass... and even if dewpoints dropped it would still mean lows of 56-60 at SEA next week. I could see a few 60+ degree lows towards the end of the week.

I'm referring to the lowlands as a whole. Seems most models have N/NE flow going in the lower boundary layer. That'd have to spike the dewpoint depression.

[Phil]

They did. We even gave you credit for it when we saw -10F show up in Idaho over a 10 day period. You took the credit.

 

Bill Clinton school of misdirection.

That didn't happen. If I "took credit" for it, I was being sarcastic.

 

Let it go, dude.

[BLI snowman]

Marine air is already moving in. Seems like the show is over.

 

Not really how it works with these types of setups. This one is pretty standard summer stuff here. The instability is mostly elevated above the boundary layer so our daytime surface heating/surface CAPE is a bit less relevant. Maintaining midlevel moisture and instability, convection will fire up overnight. Just a matter of proportion in regards to the track of upper level low. Often times the marine surge will even act like a low level jet and trigger in the late evening and overnight hours.

[Deweydog]

Not really how it works with these types of setups. This one is pretty standard summer stuff here. The instability is mostly elevated above the boundary layer so our daytime surface heating/surface CAPE is a bit less relevant. Maintaining midlevel moisture and instability, convection will fire up overnight. Just a matter of proportion in regards to the track of upper level low. Often times the marine surge will even act like a low level jet and trigger in the late evening and overnight hours.

Marine push was poorly timed.

[TT-SEA]

That didn't happen. If I "took credit" for it, I was being sarcastic.

 

Let it go, dude.

 

 

There were small areas of almost  -10F departures in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming over a 10 day period.      It did happen.

 

And the models could clearly show that since it actually happened.   Its a little more likely than you living at the top of Mt. Everest.    

[TT-SEA]

I just realized there is a small area of -10F anomalies in eastern Shoshone County, Idaho on the second map. Score one for Phil!

 

That is surface temps.   And you liked the post.   

 

It can clearly happen... it is not preposterous at all.     Just not on this side too often.   We have a muted climate over here for the most part.

 

[BLI snowman]

Marine push was poorly timed.

 

Maybe. Still plenty of time before the ULL is fully out of reach.

[Phil]

There were small areas of almost -10F departures in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming over a 10 day period. It did happen.

 

And the models could clearly show that since it actually happened. Its a little more likely than you living at the top of Mt. Everest.

I wasn't referring to the surface, as the only reference I made was to 850mb. Let it go please.

[Phil]

That is surface temps. And you liked the post.

 

It can clearly happen... it is not preposterous at all. Just not on this side too often. We have a muted climate over here for the most part.

 

I liked the post because I thought it was funny.

 

Plus it was sarcastic. The idea of -10F departures on the westside was/is ludicrous.

[TT-SEA]

+5 at PDX today... which will probably be wiped out with a -5 tomorrow.

[Phil]

I was referring to 850mb temperatures, not surface temperatures at the relevant stations. Please let it go, thanks.

[Phil]

Again -30F for a particular day, average of -10F over the 10 day period. Context.

[TT-SEA]

I was referring to the 850mb anoms, not surface temperatures at the relevant stations. Please let it go, thanks.

 

 

No model showed 850mb temp departures of only -10F with that pattern... they were showing much colder.

 

I just looked back at that day (7/2) for the GFS and it was showing an 850mb anomaly of -10C which is about -25F over several days.    You accurately reported that it showed at -7F departure at the surface over several days.   You reported exactly what it showed at the surface.  

[TT-SEA]

HRRR shows convection over the Seattle area tomorrow morning with the back edge of the trough.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016072200/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f13.png

[TT-SEA]

Not a single cloud in the sky up here, love it!!

 

 

I assume your day on the lake was good?    

[TT-SEA]

WRF also shows convection over the Seattle area tomorrow morning.   

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/wa_pcp1.15.0000.gif

[MossMan]

I assume your day on the lake was good?

Was perfect!! Got to the lake house around 10:30 this morning and was a perfect day on the water! Clouds started to roll in around 4pm which held temps in the 70's through the evening.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The sky looks very interesting tonight with the sun setting against the Olympic thunderstorms. I took a few pictures earlier this evening. There have been a few flashes of lightning so far but it's dying off almost as soon as it hits the Juan de Fuca. The convection curse continues for now. Hopefully we'll see a few more cells popup now that it's dark enough to see the lightning from a distance.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3544_zpshff6yi7s.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3557_zps9cymre1c.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3566_zpsdakqty9d.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Was perfect!! Got to the lake house around 10:30 this morning and was a perfect day on the water! Clouds started to roll in around 4pm which held temps in the 70's through the evening.

 

 

Yeah... convective clouds coming in during the evening is the best.   Keeps the temperature up and makes for interesting light as the sun gets lower.

[TT-SEA]

GFS and Canadian not backing down at all.   Warm week... and still warm at the end of the month.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht.gif

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows the South and Central Puget Sound area getting slammed with some heavy rain / thunderstorms late tonight.  I'm not quite sure what to make of it.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF shows the South and Central Puget Sound area getting slammed with some heavy rain / thunderstorms late tonight.  I'm not quite sure what to make of it.

 

 

So does the HRRR and the ECMWF showed it as well.

[GHweatherChris]

I used to live in a uninhabitatable area of the Washington cascades years ago.

[Phil]

No model showed 850mb temp departures of only -10F with that pattern... they were showing much colder.

 

I just looked back at that day (7/2) for the GFS and it was showing an 850mb anomaly of -10C which is about -25F over several days. You accurately reported that it showed at -7F departure at the surface over several days. You reported exactly what it showed at the surface.

On a few particular days, sure. Not through the whole period.

 

Again, I was referring to 850mb temperatures, not surface temperatures at the relevant stations. Please let it go, thanks.

[Phil]

I used to live in a uninhabitatable area of the Washington cascades years ago.

*An* uninhabitable area, not *a*. Use proper English.

[GHweatherChris]

*An* uninhabitable area, not *a*. Use proper English.

Own your bullshit please! Thanks.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still about 70F and raining at 10:30pm here in Victoria; a very uncommon occurrence in this region. It looks like some more thunderstorms are firing up over the Olympics now, this isn't over yet.

[Phil]

I think both Friday and Saturday will be cooler than average in most places, Sunday will probably have a cool morning followed by a toasty afternoon. Then the final 6 days of the month (as of now) look warm.

[TT-SEA]

I think both Friday and Saturday will be cooler than average in most places, Sunday will probably have a cool morning followed by a toasty afternoon. Then the final 6 days of the month (as of now) look warm.

 

Good call.

[TT-SEA]

CPC says the last week of July will be very much like the last week of July in 2003.

 

500mb maps look similar.

[Phil]

Own your bullshit please! Thanks.

If you lack the ability to grasp basic English, you have no business debating me over the context of my own post(s).

 

Get lost.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to see the trend strongly showing up in the models for the strong GOA ridge to return in early August.  Really good placement if it becomes the default for fall and winter.

[Karl Bonner]

Ewww...heat again in the long range.  Back up to 100-ish temps in The Dalles if this holds true.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

[TT-SEA]

I think both Friday and Saturday will be cooler than average in most places, Sunday will probably have a cool morning followed by a toasty afternoon. Then the final 6 days of the month (as of now) look warm.

 

 

Didn't someone say a couple weeks ago that the last week of July would be warm?   

[snow_wizard]

As far as the debate over temperatures this month I think several people were right in different ways.  I give Tim great credit for his call on surface temps remaining fairly close to normal.  On the other hand the consistently below normal 850s can't be ignored.  As a result people that forecasted a cool month were correct on the big picture.  It's pretty ironic we have had much warmer Julys at the 850mb level that have turned out cooler at the surface.  It boils down to the all important fine details.

[GHweatherChris]

If you lack the ability to grasp basic English, you have no business debating me over the context of my own post(s).

 

Get lost.

I am not debating you at all... so.....

 

Defensive much?

[snow_wizard]

Ewww...heat again in the long range.  Back up to 100-ish temps in The Dalles if this holds true.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

 

Looks pretty short lived to me as the ridge retrogrades to the GOA later in week 2.  I reserve the right to revise this however.

[TT-SEA]

As far as the debate over temperatures this month I think several people were right in different ways.  I give Tim great credit for his call on surface temps remaining fairly close to normal.  On the other hand the consistently below normal 850s can't be ignored.  As a result people that forecasted a cool month were correct on the big picture.  It's pretty ironic we have had much warmer Julys at the 850mb level that have turned out cooler at the surface.  It boils down to the all important fine details.

 

 

Tough climate to forecast here.   

 

I think using local history with the right analog years was a good approach.   July happened to play out like a script laid out by similar years.    Cold and damp in the first part of the month... even keel through the middle... warm in the end.    The reverse of what the tropical forcing indicated in late June.

 

Might be good way to predict the future by looking at what actually happened here in similar situations in the past.   Or maybe it just worked well this time.  

 

We do it all the time in the winter with mixed results so maybe it works better in the relative stability of summer.