July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I see OLM had a 6 p.m. high or at least they were still at their high at that time.   The 6 p.m. hourly reading was the highest of the day.

 

SEA also got up to their high again at 6:30.

[Front Ranger]

Phil literally just linked me to that map today.

 

He told me to use that link today because it has higher resolution.

 

I am completely following orders from Phil and I am STILL wrong.   

 

Wow.   

 

   

[Front Ranger]

So..OLM down to 57 as of 10PM with calm winds and clear skies. They've got 3hrs until 1AM.

 

They will do this tonight. They have to.

 

Yeah, they should make it down to 55 at least. Late low.

[Front Ranger]

I see OLM had a 6 p.m. high or at least they were still at their high at that time.   The 6 p.m. hourly reading was the highest of the day.

 

SEA also got up to their high again at 6:30.

 

So now you care about OLM? I'm confused.

[TT-SEA]

So now you care about OLM? I'm confused.

 

 

I am watching it because Phil is watching it.   

 

Glanced at the hourly observation and saw a 6 p.m. high.

 

So yes... now OLM is the most important station in my life.    All others are abandoned.  

[Phil]

He'll never be the same.

 

...expect a lot more OLM-centric posts going forward.

[TT-SEA]

He'll never be the same again.

 

...expect a lot more OLM-centric posts going forward.

 

 

You told me the best maps to use for SSTAs... I followed your advice.   

[TT-SEA]

SEA and WFO SEA both end up the month at +1.1.

 

That is good independent verification that SEA was not running unusually warm this month.  

[Phil]

You told me the best maps to use for SSTAs... I followed your advice.

You sure did.

[Phil]

You told me the best maps to use for SSTAs... I followed your advice.

That's one "great" sarcasm detector you've got there.

 

Come on, even Jim grabbed that one.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 55 at OLM!

[Phil]

Down to 55 at OLM!

[Front Ranger]

SEA and WFO SEA both end up the month at +1.1.

 

That is good independent verification that SEA was not running unusually warm this month.

Not unusually warm, but still warmer than most the region. And still running warmer than WFO on the year.

[Geos]

 

The clouds are probably hovering over the Black hills west of OLM. Still 63° at SEA.

[Phil]

Maybe they'll somehow make it to 52 degrees for a -3.

[TT-SEA]

Not unusually warm, but still warmer than most the region. And still running warmer than WFO on the year.

 

Talking about July... good verification with WFO SEA.   

 

You can't just say that SEA was warmer than OLM or PDX so it must be wrong.   Different circumstances in those places.   SEA fit nicely within the warmer area from Vancouver BC to Astoria.

 

So in July... there is no evidence at all of SEA running unusually warm.  

 

   

[Phil]

Looking at that map, obviously the warmth had something to do with Puget Sound. My theory is the blowtorch spring (and early June heatwave) warmed the waters enough to affect the surrounding temperature anomalies.

 

If this is true, then as the troughy summer continues, the "Puget Sound Anomaly" will gradually diminish over the next few months.

[Front Ranger]

Talking about July... good verification with WFO SEA.   

 

You can't just say that SEA was warmer than OLM or PDX so it must be wrong.   Different circumstances in those places.   SEA fit nicely within the warmer area from Vancouver BC to Astoria.

 

So in July... there is no evidence at all of SEA running unusually warm.     

 

Every month is different. But almost every month during the warm season, SEA manages to finish warmer than most places in the PNW. Again, this is based off many months, not just one. It's quite predictable.

 

Anyhow...for OLM, SEA, and EUG, I ended up pretty darn close for July in the forecast contest. Too warm for PDX.

[Deweydog]

So if Olympia finishes with a -3 today will that clinch their coldest July on record?

[TT-SEA]

Looking at that map, obviously the warmth had something to do with Puget Sound. My theory is the blowtorch spring (and early June heatwave) warmed the waters enough to affect the surrounding temperature anomalies.

 

If this is true, then as the troughy summer continues, the "Puget Sound Anomaly" will gradually diminish over the next few months.

 

Few months?

 

We are a few weeks from September.   

 

And no... it does not have much to do with the water in the Puget Sound.

 

Latest water temperature reading in Seattle was 56 degrees.    Normal at this time of year is 56 degrees.

 

Tacoma is at 54... normal is 55.

 

Friday Harbor is 54 and normal is 54.

 

Really heated up that water.    Its like the Caribbean out there. 

[TT-SEA]

So if Olympia finishes with a -3 today will that clinch their coldest July on record?

 

Trying to end up with the most perfectly normal July ever recorded at OLM.

 

Pay attention here Matt.

[Deweydog]

Trying to end up with the most perfectly normal July ever recorded at OLM.

 

Pay attention here Matt.

Sweet. I'm on board.

 

Go airports!!!

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs ensembles would indicate the likelihood of a slightly warmer than average first half of August.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[snow_wizard]

Some dps sneaking down into the upper 40s tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Gfs ensembles would indicate the likelihood of a slightly warmer than average first half of August.

 

 

We'll see.  Most ensemble runs have indicated below normal.  My money is on below for the region as a whole.

[snow_wizard]

Still looking like a very real shot at a high in the 60s on Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

Thursday and Friday look pretty warm on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

The ULL is a little farther north over the weekend as well.   Looks like another stellar weekend ahead... unfortunately we will miss it.     ECMWF shows sunshine for everyone with highs in the mid to upper 70s in Seattle and low 80s in Portland next weekend.

[Geos]

OLM made it to 53° right before the day ended.

[snow_wizard]

OLM made it to 53° right before the day ended.

 

With daylight savings time they have until 1am to drop more.

[snow_wizard]

Thursday and Friday look pretty warm on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

The ULL is a little farther north over the weekend as well.   Looks like another stellar weekend ahead... unfortunately we will miss it.     ECMWF shows sunshine for everyone with highs in the mid to upper 70s in Seattle and low 80s in Portland next weekend.

 

Still pretty trough overall though.  At day 10 there is a slug of pretty chilly air beginning to move down the SE AK / BC Coast.  Looks like we could come up with a reasonably dry and somewhat cool month.  Maybe some fall like mins later in the month.

[Phil]

Few months?

 

We are a few weeks from September.

 

And no... it does not have much to do with the water in the Puget Sound.

 

Latest water temperature reading in Seattle was 56 degrees. Normal at this time of year is 56 degrees.

 

Tacoma is at 54... normal is 55.

 

Friday Harbor is 54 and normal is 54.

 

Really heated up that water. Its like the Caribbean out there.

When were those readings taken? Maybe they've cooled off.

 

It obviously does have something to do with Puget Sound. The orientation of those warm anomalies makes it clear. You can even see where the coastal straits are cooler w/ the more turbulent waters/mixing.

[Phil]

We'll see. Most ensemble runs have indicated below normal. My money is on below for the region as a whole.

The pattern during the first half of August will favor cooler departures farther south, warmer ones up north in Canada.

[snow_wizard]

The new run of the 00z EURO still shows the Western Pacific Typhoon recurving before hitting Japan. The Euro is so far the only model to see this but I think it's latched onto something. This could have some big time effects on our weather here in the USA down the line.

 

 

 

The big question is what will the effect be.  There has been unusually strong GOA ridging this summer so the storm (if it materializes) may take a more northerly track than would be normal.  Hard to say how that would effect us.

[Geos]

FYI - posted an August thread.

[Kayla]

And not entirely true.   Couple of examples...  

 

This is July 27, 2015... a day that was a -3 at SEA with a high of only 74.

 

 

Here is 7/22/15... a -1 day at SEA with a high of 75.

 

 

 

We had sunny days last July that were below normal as well. 

 

Do you actually screen shot every sunny day?!

[TT-SEA]

Do you actually screen shot every sunny day?!

No... ita a great cam where you can pull up images from any day. Very useful.

[Front Ranger]

Overall, July 2016 goes down as a very normal-ish month west of the Cascades. Cool but nothing too crazy east of the Cascades, although a few areas were well below normal.

 

 

[Deweydog]

We'll be talking about this one for decades to come.

[Front Ranger]

We'll be talking about this one for decades to come.

 

Kinda feels like we already have been talking about it for decades.

[Jesse]

We'll be talking about this one for decades to come.

Pleasant Julys suck.