Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[OKwx2k4]

JB releasing final winter forecast today after markets close. Gave a quick glance of some analogs to see but there were a ton of them. The ones that had my attention and have for awhile now were 1983-84, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Said big time cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas, then reloading and doing it again. Also said euro is too warm. Good stuff. SOI is now also negative. Can't wait to crack this monster ridge and heat.

[OKwx2k4]

All the Great Lakes are running way above normal for the time of year....big time fuel for LES when the Arctic Attack hits later in November!

 

 

 

Those lakes are smokin'!

[jaster220]

This guy says "just chill" CONUS! Brrr

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

This guy says "just chill" CONUS! Brrr

 

20161028 Michael Clark 2016-17 winter analog temps.PNG

Holy smokes! I think that guy stole my map! Lol

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow. As jb said on his daily update today, 83-84 analog is in play. That was one of the coldest, snowiest winters in Nebraska history. I was in middle school (junior high) and we had many snow days along with brutal cold.

[Tom]

Saw this post from a met using the Nov-Dec '83/'95 analog...

 

 

Snowfall averages for those months in the cities below:

 

 

SYR 46.1"

BOS 28.2"

ORD 16.8"

NYC 14.4"

 

 

If ORD can average nearly 50% of normal snowfall by end of Dec, I'll take it.  Interesting times ahead.

[jaster220]

Saw this post from a met using the Nov-Dec '83/'95 analog...

 

 

Snowfall averages for those months in the cities below:

 

 

SYR 46.1"

BOS 28.2"

ORD 16.8"

NYC 14.4"

 

 

If ORD can average nearly 50% of normal snowfall by end of Dec, I'll take it.  Interesting times ahead.

 

Was about to post this but you Ninja'd me LOL. 

 

Here's Allan Huffman's take:  https://t.co/AqIaHRdhM5

 

I like his Other ENSO thoughts, and his snowfall map aligns with mine, except I think it should extend the above normal zone further SW down to OkWx's backyard. 

[jaster220]

Wow. As jb said on his daily update today, 83-84 analog is in play. That was one of the coldest, snowiest winters in Nebraska history. I was in middle school (junior high) and we had many snow days along with brutal cold.

 

If you go to the link I posted above, you will see the departures for Dec '83!      

[jaster220]

I had never seen the BSR performance graph. Didn't even know anybody had one tbh. Might be worth following this next storm though I'm not clear exactly how it works? Anyone out here that can clarify how it is best used as a tool to forecast the next storm's potential across the lower 48?

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Was about to post this but you Ninja'd me LOL.

 

Here's Allan Huffman's take: https://t.co/AqIaHRdhM5

 

I like his Other ENSO thoughts, and his snowfall map aligns with mine, except I think it should extend the above normal zone further SW down to OkWx's backyard.

 

Thanks. That's where 2010 analog comes in. Almost identical heights just stretched back west further. Once the suppression hits, I'll be just fine. :-)

[Niko]

This guy says "just chill" CONUS! Brrr

 

20161028 Michael Clark 2016-17 winter analog temps.PNG

That is cold stuff!!

[Stormgeek]

Another probably pretty easy question, but what does the temperature anomaly actually measure. I always look at it and think, "oh, 3 degrees, big woop". I am surely missing something in my ever-growing knowledge.

[clintbeed1993]

Jim Flowers posted a video today and mentioned 1959/1960 as one of his top analogs regarding the winter pattern.  59/60 was top 5 snowiest for many in Nebraska.  We are beyond due for one like that.

[OKwx2k4]

Jim Flowers posted a video today and mentioned 1959/1960 as one of his top analogs regarding the winter pattern. 59/60 was top 5 snowiest for many in Nebraska. We are beyond due for one like that.

I'm glad to see a pro met included '59-'60. I know a lot of meteorologists and climatologists don't like to go that far back but I thought it was an ideal fit this year as well.

[OKwx2k4]

Another probably pretty easy question, but what does the temperature anomaly actually measure. I always look at it and think, "oh, 3 degrees, big woop". I am surely missing something in my ever-growing knowledge.

The anomaly really depends on the length of time that it is forecast to be -3 over. For instance, if you say it is going to be 3º below average tomorrow, that's pretty simple to figure out. However, if you say it's going to be -3º below average for the next 10 days, you could arrive at that average any number of ways. You could have the first 5 at say 10º above average and another 5 during a cold wave at an average of -16º and still arrive at -3. Same concept applies over the course of a month or a season due to weather being ever changing. You'll very rarely ever see it just stay at -3 over a large duration. If it were like that then it would be no big deal at all. Hope this helps. When you read us reference months like December 1983 or January 2011 and talk about the massive cold waves that came during those times, they were offset partially by the fact that parts of my state set high temperature records in the week before or the week after those very memorable events. Hence you see averages like -6 instead of -20. -3 is a pretty cold month when it's broken down like that. Again I hope I was of some help.

[Tom]

I think a lot of members near I-80 would be quite happy by Jan 1st...the dark purple is 20"+ of snow OTG... ...signals of an active storm track and cold for central CONUS.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17010100_2900.gif

 

 

Jan 22nd...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17012200_2900.gif

[Stormgeek]

Now that is something that strikes my fancy. Hopefully it is a sign of things to come!

[james1976]

I think a lot of members near I-80 would be quite happy by Jan 1st...the dark purple is 20"+ of snow OTG... ...signals of an active storm track and cold for central CONUS.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17010100_2900.gif

 

 

Jan 22nd...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17012200_2900.gif

My God. Nice!

[bud2380]

It would be fun to see a winter storm pop up somewhere in the upper Midwest or plains in the next couple weeks. GFs shows no cold outbreaks in the next two weeks. I'm interested to see how this winter pans out. Based on everything I have seen on here and other places, I am expecting a fairly typical winter at least in my backyard. It's been a warm summer and fall so we will need a pattern break to get the cold winter being predicted by many. If one believes the LRC then the beginning of the cycle would seem to support above average temps early in the cycle. I know the start and length of the cycle has not yet been determined but it is underway.

[westMJim]

Looking for more clues for the winter of 2016/17

At this time it looks like we may end to having an neutral ENSO going back to 1950 here is a list of years that have had past neutral ENSO’s remember the years as referred to here start in September and run to the next August. Thus 1979 would run from September 1979 to August 1980.

The neutral  ENSO years 2008, 2006, 2005, 2004,2003,2001,1999,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1990,1989,1985,1984,1983,1980,1979,1978,1977,

1968,1966,1962,1961,1960,1959,1958,1953,1952 and 1950. In the neutral  ENSO winters here in Grand Rapids the average mean snow fall total has been 78.1” (around 75” is average for all years

 The top 3 snowiest winters (in that group) were 104.9” in 2008/09, 104.7” in 1958/59 and 98.1” in 2000/01. And on the flip side the 3 least snowy neutral years were 39.7” in 1952/53, 48.5” in 1979/80 and 51.5” in 1980/81. So how much snow will fall here in Grand Rapids this winter (2016/17) well its safe to say somewhere between 40 and 104” with between 70 to 80” being a good bet at this time.

[Thunder98]

Looking for more clues for the winter of 2016/17

At this time it looks like we may end to having an neutral ENSO going back to 1950 here is a list of years that have had past neutral ENSO’s remember the years as referred to here start in September and run to the next August. Thus 1979 would run from September 1979 to August 1980.

The neutral  ENSO years 2008, 2006, 2005, 2004,2003,2001,1999,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1990,1989,1985,1984,1983,1980,1979,1978,1977,

1968,1966,1962,1961,1960,1959,1958,1953,1952 and 1950. In the neutral  ENSO winters here in Grand Rapids the average mean snow fall total has been 78.1” (around 75” is average for all years

 The top 3 snowiest winters (in that group) were 104.9” in 2008/09, 104.7” in 1958/59 and 98.1” in 2000/01. And on the flip side the 3 least snowy neutral years were 39.7” in 1952/53, 48.5” in 1979/80 and 51.5” in 1980/81. So how much snow will fall here in Grand Rapids this winter (2016/17) well its safe to say somewhere between 40 and 104” with between 70 to 80” being a good bet at this time.

2012/2013 and 2013/2014 were neutral winters.

[Tom]

Taking a look at the ever-expanding snow cover in Eurasia, nearly all of Russia has a snowpack as of yesterday!  Very impressive...

 

Oct 29th...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Oct 30th...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

 

Northern Hemisphere & Eurasian snow cover nearing the Top 3 spot...

 

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

 

 

 

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

[Tom]

NCAR CESM DJF forecast...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The Polar Vortex is expected to shift towards Scandinavia and re-energize itself over the next 10 days.  Having done so, the upper air pattern will be conducive to produce a Cross Polar Flow pattern into N.A. as we head deeper into November.  Temps near Siberia are going to be extremely frigid nearing -20/-25F region wide.  We may be starting to tap into that air moving forward, esp if GFS is right about a potential SSW event developing near Siberia.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016103106/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_21.png

[westMJim]

2012/2013 and 2013/2014 were neutral winters.

Thanks.

I added the winters of 2012/13 and 2013/14 and the snow fall range at Grand Rapids, MI  with the two years added is now between 40" and 116.0" with a mean of 79.5" 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Just need the Cubbies to win a pair first! 

[jaster220]

Thanks.

I added the winters of 2012/13 and 2013/14 and the snow fall range at Grand Rapids, MI  with the two years added is now between 40" and 116.0" with a mean of 79.5" 

 

I'd lean towards that larger number if it were me. 

[Niko]

I am thinking 140" for my area.

[Niko]

The Polar Vortex is expected to shift towards Scandinavia and re-energize itself over the next 10 days.  Having done so, the upper air pattern will be conducive to produce a Cross Polar Flow pattern into N.A. as we head deeper into November.  Temps near Siberia are going to be extremely frigid nearing -20/-25F region wide.  We may be starting to tap into that air moving forward, esp if GFS is right about a potential SSW event developing near Siberia.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016103106/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_21.png

Push that blue a tad southward and bang!!!! Arctic Express over the lower 48 states.

[OKwx2k4]

Russia literally filled completely the rest of the way up with snow yesterday. SAI should be famtastic. I guess there will be no running from it if it fails this year.

[jaster220]

Russia literally filled completely the rest of the way up with snow yesterday. SAI should be famtastic. I guess there will be no running from it if it fails this year.

 

That would be an epic, epic failure indeed. On another board, grumblings of "all the cold's over there" and "there's just zero cold to be tapped on our side due to the NPAC alignment". Some saying the cold isn't here now and we may be forever teased by models showing phantom cold outbreaks ala 2011-12. 

 

Decided to look back and compare where we stood in that infamous autumn. Here's 5 yrs ago today:

 

 

 

Here's yesterday (latest avail):

 

 

 

There's certainly more overall, and there's already been more across Canada than ever was in 2011. Plus, you can see the rogue storm along the EC. Even DT will tell you that Oct snowstorms along the EC are a negative sign for eastern US winters. 

 

Takeaway: I'm seeing enough significant differences to feel good that this isn't like that season.

[jaster220]

Hoffman in S. Bend (he always maintained a "weenie-free zone" so you'll never see anything crazy from him). He notes his departure's actually pretty cold though:  http://www.wndu.com/content/news/Mikes-Winter-Outlook-for-2016-2017-398983361.html

[OKwx2k4]

That would be an epic, epic failure indeed. On another board, grumblings of "all the cold's over there" and "there's just zero cold to be tapped on our side due to the NPAC alignment". Some saying the cold isn't here now and we may be forever teased by models showing phantom cold outbreaks ala 2011-12.

 

Decided to look back and compare where we stood in that infamous autumn. Here's 5 yrs ago today:

 

20161031_NHemi_Snowcover_Oct31_2011.gif

 

Here's yesterday (latest avail):

 

20161031_NHemi_Snowcover_Oct30_2016.gif

 

There's certainly more overall, and there's already been more across Canada than ever was in 2011. Plus, you can see the rogue storm along the EC. Even DT will tell you that Oct snowstorms along the EC are a negative sign for eastern US winters.

 

Takeaway: I'm seeing enough significant differences to feel good that this isn't like that season.

Yeah, I don't think we have anything at all to worry about. If I don't get snow this year it will be pure random bad luck in an otherwise great pattern. 11-12 was the second most boring winter I've ever had behind last year.

[jaster220]

Yeah, I don't think we have anything at all to worry about. If I don't get snow this year it will be pure random bad luck in an otherwise great pattern. 11-12 was the second most boring winter I've ever had behind last year.

 

At least I could drive a few hrs north and catch a Big Dog and about 36" OTG in Kalkaska to get a snow fix. Not sure I could go to a zone like yours. 

[OKwx2k4]

At least I could drive a few hrs north and catch a Big Dog and about 36" OTG in Kalkaska to get a snow fix. Not sure I could go to a zone like yours.

I remember hearing and reading some stupidly crazy hype about how awesome that winter was going to be here. Of course after coming off a 25" winter and then a 33" winter at the time plus the greatest ice storm of my lifetime in '08. I was all in for it too. I just got so mad watching 33 and 34 degree rain and then add to that seeing it snow everywhere but here (it seemed like) on Christmas day after so much hype about how we were supposed to have a white Christmas down here. I about lost my mind. Lol. Winter was over after that.

[jaster220]

I remember hearing and reading some stupidly crazy hype about how awesome that winter was going to be here. Of course after coming off a 25" winter and then a 33" winter at the time plus the greatest ice storm of my lifetime in '08. I was all in for it too. I just got so mad watching 33 and 34 degree rain and then add to that seeing it snow everywhere but here (it seemed like) on Christmas day after so much hype about how we were supposed to have a white Christmas down here. I about lost my mind. Lol. Winter was over after that.

 

Most memorable event was the first snow(storm) on Nov 29th. Got pounded by 2"/hr fatties and 8.5" later it was quite the thump. Heaviest paste like 8:1 stuff too so tons of damage came with it. Needless to say I too was pumped for the upcoming winter. That was the only real snow we got that year and then went more than 2 yrs before we got a legit Warning criteria synoptic storm!   Forgettable times for sure!

 

Let's hope this bodes much better for both of our regions!

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Most memorable event was the first snow(storm) on Nov 29th. Got pounded by 2"/hr fatties and 8.5" later it was quite the thump. Heaviest paste like 8:1 stuff too so tons of damage came with it. Needless to say I too was pumped for the upcoming winter. That was the only real snow we got that year and then went more than 2 yrs before we got a legit Warning criteria synoptic storm! Forgettable times for sure!

 

Let's hope this bodes much better for both of our regions!

 

20161031 Judah Cohen tweet on snowcvr.PNG

I think it will. I'm still hugely in favor of a progression like the years 1983, 1977 and 2010. I don't really see cause to waver from it. The months don't line up on top of each other but if you take and follow them month for month from September through February in each year, the nature of what I'm seeing really stands out. If the cold comes in the east in the latter half of this month, then the next major cold wave after it is going to drive straight through the heart of the country and stay for a great while.

[jaster220]

CFS looking cold for early Dec:

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

CFS looking cold for early Dec:

 

20161031 JB on CFS cold Dec.PNG

I'd put a couple of storm tracks in that blue area too for the winter.

[jaster220]

I'd put a couple of storm tracks in that blue area too for the winter.

 

That's so Jan 1918 with the cold centered right over IN, OH, KY    You'll get your storm this year buddy. 

 

(CFS snow maps for next 45 days = get the snow removal equipment ready here in SMI. 3 of 4 members show significant amounts here)