August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS was pretty warm for later next week like the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Although the 06Z GFS ensemble members look more like the ECMWF ensemble mean.

[Jesse]

My gut tells me this will turn out like the "heat event" at the end of July. The models were spitting out some pretty extreme solutions in the 6-10 day range, only to be greatly modified by the time they got into the close range. It seems they were underestimating the influence of the offshore ridge then, and they may be doing that again now.

 

Of course I could be wrong. I won't lie, a couple 100 degree days in the middle of August (late-April sun angles!) would be interesting. Extreme heat events this time of year tend to be followed by big crashes/prolonged cool periods too.

[Jesse]

It was clear and in the mid-50s around sunrise here in Tigard, but in the last half hour marine clouds have drifted in.

[Deweydog]

It was clear and in the mid-50s around sunrise here in Tigard, but in the last half hour marine clouds have drifted in.

Could finally score that elusive sub-70 day????

[Jesse]

Could finally score that elusive sub-70 day????

 

You really haven't been looking at the models, have you?

[snow_wizard]

The 6z GFS is pretty awesome for much of week 2. It kind of makes sense the anomalous GOA ridge will pop up again before too long. It's the default pattern this summer.

[Phil]

There are already papers being published on the "unprecedented" nature of the 2015-16 QBO. Solid read:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract

[Front Ranger]

There is currently a 1.2 degree difference between the August anomaly at SEA and OLM (-1.6 to -2.8). I expect that difference will only go up with the pattern the next 7 days or so.

[Jesse]

There is currently a 1.2 degree difference between the August anomaly at SEA and OLM (-1.6 to -2.8). I expect that difference will only go up with the pattern the next 7 days or so.

Probably mostly due to lows. Both PDX and SEA will have trouble dropping much below 60 over the next week, and average lows start dropping soon.

[snow_wizard]

There is currently a 1.2 degree difference between the August anomaly at SEA and OLM (-1.6 to -2.8). I expect that difference will only go up with the pattern the next 7 days or so.

I'm shocked that SEA managed a -1.6.

[Jesse]

I'm shocked that SEA managed a -1.6.

There is a reason we haven't seen many hourly anomaly tracking posts from Tim lately.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS is in good agreement with the 0z ECMWF ensemble mean at day 10. Not looking bad for the final third of the month... at this point at least.

[snow_wizard]

There is a reason we haven't seen many hourly anomaly tracking posts from Tim lately.

It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall.

[TT-SEA]

There is a reason we haven't seen many hourly anomaly tracking posts from Tim lately.

July is over dummy.

 

Already said it's been cool. That will be erased in the monthly departures soon.

[Jesse]

The 12z GFS is in good agreement with the 0z ECMWF ensemble mean at day 10. Not looking bad for the final third of the month... at this point at least.

Yup, the 12z GFS is much more moderate for next week. I'm thinking last night's Euro was a freak run, for now...

 

All that puking for nothing.

[TT-SEA]

It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall.

 

All the time. I always post. Unlike you.

 

And it probably won't happen until I am excited to see below normal weather in mid-October. Nina falls usually get off to a slow start. The opposite of Ninos.

[TT-SEA]

Sure would like to avoid extreme heat next week. Moderate warmth is much more sustainable.

[Front Ranger]

Probably mostly due to lows. Both PDX and SEA will have trouble dropping much below 60 over the next week, and average lows start dropping soon.

 

Yup.

[Front Ranger]

 

All the time. I always post. Unlike you.

 

And it probably won't happen until I am excited to see below normal weather in mid-October. Nina falls usually get off to a slow start. The opposite of Ninos.

 

Nah, a Nino fall is much more likely to see persistent warmth well into October.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, a Nino fall is much more likely to see persistent warmth well into October.

Well... a strong Nino pulled off a cool September last year. I certainly liked that month.

[Phil]

Nah, a Nino fall is much more likely to see persistent warmth well into October.

Since 1950, Niñas have produced cool Septembers in the PNW more frequently than Niños by almost a 4-1 margin. So yeah, it's not even close, actually.

[TT-SEA]

Since 1950, Niñas have produced cool Septembers in the PNW more frequently than Niños by almost a 4-1 margin. So yeah, it's not even close, actually.

I must be thinking that Ninos are better at producing early arctic intrusions then.

[Deweydog]

It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall.

It's gonna be crazy. He'll be too busy to post, desperately trying to save his plantlife from the droves of hard freezes.

[Jesse]

It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall.

Probably more than we'd all like him to, still. But you won't be seeing hourly temp/anomaly updates during the cool periods.

[GobBluth]

12z cmc is all in for full retrogression next week.

[Phil]

So, heat advisories in Portland for mid 90s highs? That criteria is kind of silly if you ask me. Heat indices probably won't even approach 100 degrees, so pretty much everyone should manage quite easily.

[GobBluth]

So, heat advisories in Portland for mid 90s highs? That criteria is kind of silly if you ask me. Heat indices probably won't even approach 100 degrees, so pretty much everyone should manage quite easily.

They're contractually required to issue at least five per summer so they're in catch up mode, regardless of actual temps.

[Phil]

I must be thinking that Ninos are better at producing early arctic intrusions then.

Yeah, PNW Arctic blasts during Niño winters are almost always focused in the first half of DJF, with the highest concentration focused in December.

 

Also, FWIW, the vast majority of said Niño blasts occurred during -QBO winters.

[Front Ranger]

Since 1950, Niñas have produced cool Septembers in the PNW more frequently than Niños by almost a 4-1 margin. So yeah, it's not even close, actually.

 

Add in October, and the evidence is even stronger.

[Deweydog]

So, heat advisories in Portland for mid 90s highs? That criteria is kind of silly if you ask me. Heat indices probably won't even approach 100 degrees, so pretty much everyone should manage quite easily.

Pretty lame. I think they're just bored.

[Phil]

Add in October, and the evidence is even stronger.

Wouldn't surprise me. Haven't actually run the numbers on October, so don't know what the ratio is, but I'd guess it's at least on par with September's.

[Phil]

Pretty lame. I think they're just bored.

Heat indices in the mid-90s? Eskimos and Polar Bears are probably laughing their arses off right now.

[Deweydog]

Heat indices in the mid-90s? Eskimos and Polar Bears are probably laughing their arses off right now.

There are some people here that find them physically and emotionally crippling, so there is that...

[Jesse]

There are some people here that find them physically and emotionally crippling, so there is that...

90s are great in moderation.

[Deweydog]

90s are great in moderation.

Just like alcohol and pancreatic cancer.

[TT-SEA]

Probably more than we'd all like him to, still. But you won't be seeing hourly temp/anomaly updates during the cool periods.

Nor will you see that with the upcoming warm spell.

 

July is over dummy.

 

And there is probably nothing to interesting coming up.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is perfect... no extreme heat. Just pleasant with good mixing and changing of air masses.

[Front Ranger]

No heatwaves on the latest Euro. Appears last night's run was not a trend setter.

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF is perfect... no extreme heat. Just pleasant with good mixing and changing of air masses.

Tons of marine layer days.

[BLI snowman]

Extremes in weather are always better to track.

 

My opinion is 100% fact and any deviations from it are incontrovertibly moronic.