TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Troughs in early September... very rare but it has happened in our history. Going way back here... but does anyone remember this beast from early September in 2015? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Certainly a bit odd the marine push hasn't even made it to Hoquiam yet. Normally when there is to be sharp cooling inland the marine air hits the coast at least a day before it gets to Seattle. In this case it appears there will be less than a 12 hour gap. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 See... Low sun angles. The angle was abnormally low in 1968-69. Very possible that's the reason the winter was so cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Troughs in early September... very rare but it has happened in our history. Going way back here... but does anyone remember this beast from early September in 2015?Despite your diabolical intentions, I refuse to have my enthusiasm for the upcoming cool trough dampened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I just looked at September 1968 and there was a period of chilly weather around the middle of the month in the PNW. From September 13 to September 22, Seattle had 5 straight days with highs in the 50s and 7 days in that period with highs 60 or lower. For PDX, the average temperature in that 10 day stretch was 61.8.You know we were heading for a Nino that winter. Not a good comparison to this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Despite your diabolical intentions, I refuse to have my enthusiasm for the upcoming cool trough dampened.Good! I will be enjoying too. Just like last year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Yeah but Seattle got almost 6 feet that Winter so I can't ignore it.Haha. Okay. A Nino that saw 6 ft of snow is why you should ignore it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Yeah but Seattle got almost 6 feet that Winter so I can't ignore it. You realize this makes absolutely no sense, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Reading up on our September 2015 thread. Crazy stuff early in the month. Cold, thunderstorms, snow in the mountains, heavy rain. I had 5 inches of rain in just a few days. The September 2016 trough has a tall order to match up with the craziness in early September last year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 There are other factors in play that affect our snow chances any given Winter. It's just not El Nino/La Nina. We got clobbered with snow here in 1968-1969 because factors stronger than an El Nino came about. Some La Nina years we get no snow at all. So you think there are factors at play this year that will override ENSO and give us a shot at a 1968-69 redux? What factors are these? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Sun angle seems to have gotten lower just within the last hour here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Yeah, that's also the point where subtropical airmasses (10/21/2003, 11/6/2006, 11/13/1999) take over as our record high fuel. Late October is very late for warm east winds. There seems to be a cutoff pretty much on Halloween. 1949 and 2010 illustrate that no matter how impressive the ridge, its a tall order to hit 70 at PDX after 10/31 in a subsidence pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 There are other factors in play that affect our snow chances any given Winter. It's just not El Nino/La Nina. We got clobbered with snow here in 1968-1969 because factors stronger than an El Nino came about. Some La Nina years we get no snow at all. We have cool, troughy periods in most years in September. Picking one period out from 1968 is not really objective analysis. But still fun. We could pick out these same cool September periods from years with no cold or snow as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Not necessarily. We can see heights well into the 580's pretty much any time of year. Late October 2003 featured 600dm heights just offshore prior to the big retrogession at the end of the month. That ridge was a beast. 97 at Coquille and 95 at Powers on 10/26. Hottest weather ever seen in Oregon so late in the fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 That ridge was a beast. 97 at Coquille and 95 at Powers on 10/26. Hottest weather ever seen in Oregon so late in the fall.That call and early winter was a fun stretch. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 There are other factors in play that affect our snow chances any given Winter. It's just not El Nino/La Nina. We got clobbered with snow here in 1968-1969 because factors stronger than an El Nino came about. Some La Nina years we get no snow at all. I think this has a shot at being a good winter, but 1968-69 isn't a good match. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Certainly a bit odd the marine push hasn't even made it to Hoquiam yet. Normally when there is to be sharp cooling inland the marine air hits the coast at least a day before it gets to Seattle. In this case it appears there will be less than a 12 hour gap.90 in Astoria still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I think my location will see 50"+ of snow this winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I think my location will see 50"+ of snow this winter.Is this like a Trump thing? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I think this has a shot at being a good winter, but 1968-69 isn't a good match. 1968-69 was such an outlier that no year will ever be a good match. But yeah, the Nino vs. Nina thing is the obvious one here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week. Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 August 1968 was our wettest on record. Can you say analog? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 One of them is the QBO. I haven't said we would see a 1968-69 redux. I'm still working on my Winter forecast that I will release sometime in late October/early November. That's one botched QBO wave right there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week. Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s.I'm sure you are standing in a puddle of pee right now aren't you? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I'm sure you are standing in a puddle of pee right now aren't you? No... reporting what the ECMWF shows. I just signed up for WeatherBell. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week. Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s.Do you always edit your posts with an extra sentence or 2 in hopes of pissing someone off? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 August 1968 was our wettest on record. Can you say analog? We have Richard Nixon to thank for 1968-69. Had he not been elected that year, the winter would have turned out much different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Do you always edit your posts with an extra sentence or 2 in hopes of pissing someone off? With actual model data? No. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Do you always edit your posts with an extra sentence or 2 in hopes of pissing someone off? The constant innocent act is the thing that makes it hardest to stomach. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week. Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s. Did you finally get WeatherBell?? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 We have Richard Nixon to thank for 1968-69. Had he not been elected that year, the winter would have turned out much different. Seems plausible. 1972-73 was excellent, too. And 1960-61 was utter poo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 The constant innocent act is the thing that makes it hardest to stomach. Seriously just activated my account and reported what the ECMWF showed for SEA and PDX. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Did you finally get WeatherBell?? Yes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I've noticed the Tim hatred has been kicked up a couple notches, at least since the last time I was a regular here. Its interesting. I don't think he's changed that much over the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Comfy day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I've noticed the Tim hatred has been kicked up a couple notches, at least since the last time I was a regular here. Its interesting. I don't think he's changed that much over the years. If I loved cold weather all year long and hated warm weather then I would be a hero on here with the same exact posting style. No doubt. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Seems plausible. 1972-73 was excellent, too. And 1960-61 was utter poo. Good points! And I have to admit, I've had a soft spot for Obama since 12-20-2008. Can't forget a gift like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 September 2013 was the wettest ever and that December it hit -10 in Eugene...Hmmmm.... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 If I loved cold weather and hated warm weather then I would be a hero on here with the same exact posting style. No doubt. To some anyway. No doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 Yes. About time! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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