September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[GHweatherChris]

I find myself asking the same questions as last week, or whenever we talked about this last time. If AST is so far out of the norm, why is OTH showing the same tendencies?

 

I get it, AST has stuck out at times this summer. But I'm not ready to assume its a broken sensor. Its that simple.

Not that personal opinion holds alot of merit on this forum, but my folks who have lived in Westport for the last 35 years say that this summer was one best ever in those years, I tend to believe them. My mom had an amazing garden this year, better than ever as well.

 

The sensor at AST isn't broken, the reality of this summer is the coast was beautiful for weather overall.

[Deweydog]

Cop out.

 

Sometimes it's ok to ask questions.

Well... show some examples where they're observations have been out of step with boundary layer conditions.

[wx_statman]

Not that personal opinion holds alot of merit on this forum, but my folks who have lived in Westport for the last 35 years say that this summer was one best ever in those years, I tend to believe them. My mom had an amazing garden this year, better than ever as well.

 

The sensor at AST isn't broken, the reality of this summer is the coast was beautiful for weather overall.

 

Sure its an anecdote, but it still sounds more plausible than assuming an ASOS sensor is broken! 

[GHweatherChris]

Sure its an anecdote, but it still sounds more plausible than assuming an ASOS sensor is broken!

Exactly!!! Not sure why others think its unfathomable.

[Front Ranger]

I find myself asking the same questions as last week, or whenever we talked about this last time. If AST is so far out of the norm, why is OTH showing the same tendencies? 

 

I get it, AST has stuck out at times this summer. But I'm not ready to assume its a broken sensor. Its that simple. 

 

1. OTH is nowhere near Astoria. And they only had a +.3 departure in August, way below AST's +3.4.

 

2. I'm not assuming it's a broken sensor either.

[Front Ranger]

Not that personal opinion holds alot of merit on this forum, but my folks who have lived in Westport for the last 35 years say that this summer was one best ever in those years, I tend to believe them. My mom had an amazing garden this year, better than ever as well.

 

The sensor at AST isn't broken, the reality of this summer is the coast was beautiful for weather overall.

 

Hoquiam has run much cooler than AST the past couple months.

[wx_statman]

1. OTH is nowhere near Astoria. And they only had a +.3 departure in August, way below AST's +3.4.

 

2. I'm not assuming it's a broken sensor either.

 

Ok, my bad then. I though you were implying just that.

[Front Ranger]

Well... show some examples where they're observations have been out of step with boundary layer conditions.

 

I've already provided more actual facts/data in this discussion than you. 

[Front Ranger]

Ok, my bad then. I though you were implying just that.

 

I had already said I wasn't saying that. It's just unusual and weird given how much warmer they've been compared to just about every other station in the region. Not sure why anyone is denying that.

 

The first point is kinda relevant as well. OTH has not mirrored AST this summer, and they're also in a completely different area.

[GHweatherChris]

Hoquiam has run much cooler than AST the past couple months.

So....

 

Hoquiam is further north, makes sense.

[wx_statman]

I had already said I wasn't saying that. It's just unusual and weird given how much warmer they've been compared to just about every other station in the region. Not sure why anyone is denying that.

 

The first point is kinda relevant as well. OTH has not mirrored AST this summer, and they're also in a completely different area.

 

I guess its just not that interesting of a subject matter to me. The only reason I joined this discussion in the first place was because I felt certain people were jumping to conclusions too quickly regarding the AST sensor. 

[Phil]

So....

 

Hoquiam is further north, makes sense.

Cooler relative to average, dummy.

[Phil]

I guess its just not that interesting of a subject matter to me. The only reason I joined this discussion in the first place was because I felt certain people were jumping to conclusions too quickly regarding the AST sensor.

Whether or not it's the sensor (or some other form of anthropogenic contamination in tandem with other factors) isn't quantitatively verifiable at this time. However, given the nature of the lower boundary layer thermals alone, the temperatures measured @ AST are almost certainly not accurate and/or reflective of a natural profile in that regard.

[Jesse]

Not that personal opinion holds alot of merit on this forum, but my folks who have lived in Westport for the last 35 years say that this summer was one best ever in those years, I tend to believe them. My mom had an amazing garden this year, better than ever as well.

 

The sensor at AST isn't broken, the reality of this summer is the coast was beautiful for weather overall.

I didn't realize the ASOS sensors measured objective niceness now. About D**n time.

[Phil]

There's just no way around it. All the way down to 1000ft (lowest level) on the ESRL aggregate of mesoanalyses, temperatures are well below average across NW OR. What would induce a shallow layer of surface based warmth that (at best) is only 800ft in depth?

[GHweatherChris]

I didn't realize the ASOS sensors measured objective niceness now. About D**n time.

Warmer than normal anomalies at the coast has produced nicer than normal weather, weird.

[BLI snowman]

VUO and HIO have both had issues with inflated temps in the last decade. VUO's issues are now fixed but they were extremely apparent between 2007 and 2012. It's not really a stretch to think other airports in the region are seeing equipment and maintenance issues with some regularity. SEA was clearly having big issues in the 2013-14 period and they are one of the foremost sites in the region.

[wx_statman]

Whether or not it's the sensor (or some other form of anthropogenic contamination in tandem with other factors) isn't quantitatively verifiable at this time. However, given the nature of the lower boundary layer thermals alone, the temperatures measured @ AST are almost certainly not accurate and/or reflective of a natural profile.

 

The problem I'm having is that what you're saying contradicts two people (GHweatherChris and Deweydog) who have spent significant chunks of their life on the coast. Who am I to believe? 

[Jesse]

There's just no way around it. All the way down to 1000ft (lowest level) on the ESRL aggregate of mesoanalyses, temperatures are well below average. What would induce shallow layer of surface based warmth, under 800ft in depth?

Matt knows, but it's a secret.

[GHweatherChris]

Cooler relative to average, dummy.

No !!

[Jesse]

Warmer than normal anomalies at the coast has produced nicer than normal weather, weird.

So cooler and cloudier?

[GHweatherChris]

The problem I'm having is that what you're saying contradicts two people (GHweatherChris and Deweydog) who have spent significant chunks of their life on the coast. Who am I to believe?

Phil has a hard time understanding our local climates, understandable for someone who has never lived here.

[Jesse]

No s**t!!

If that's the case, why would it being further north matter? Especially since warm anomalies have generally been more pronounced further north this warm season.

[Phil]

The problem I'm having is that what you're saying contradicts two people (GHweatherChris and Deweydog) who have spent significant chunks of their life on the coast. Who am I to believe?

Whatever the data can quantitatively tell me, that's what I roll with. I've lived in the DC area my entire life, and I never trust my own nativist "observations" and/or "hunches" because they're often wrong, especially when it comes to microscale temperature and boundary layer tendencies. This is complex stuff.

[GHweatherChris]

So cooler and cloudier?

Not this summer.

[Jesse]

VUO and HIO have both had issues with inflated temps in the last decade. VUO's issues are now fixed but they were extremely apparent between 2007 and 2012. It's not really a stretch to think other airports in the region are seeing equipment and maintenance issues with some regularity. SEA was clearly having big issues in the 2013-14 period and they are one of the foremost sites in the region.

Truth bomb.

[Phil]

If that's the case, why would it being further north matter? Especially since warm anomalies have generally been more pronounced further north this warm season.

GHweatherChris isn't the brightest candle the room.

[GHweatherChris]

If that's the case, why would it being further north matter? Especially since warm anomalies have generally been more pronounced further north this warm season.

Micro climates, the Chehalis River gap, different variables.

 

Some of the same reasons I can get a bunch of snow sometimes in the winter when just 6 miles to the west of me gets nothing.

[Jesse]

Not this summer.

I think you're missing my point. How "beautiful" or "nice" the weather has been, according to your personal definition of such, doesn't tell us much about temp anomalies.

[Front Ranger]

I guess its just not that interesting of a subject matter to me. The only reason I joined this discussion in the first place was because I felt certain people were jumping to conclusions too quickly regarding the AST sensor. 

 

Ok. I think some people were jumping to conclusions about AST not being an outlier as well. Which is why I introduced some additional facts to the discussion. 

[wx_statman]

Whatever the data can quantitatively tell me, that's what I roll with. I've lived in the DC area my entire life, and I never trust my own nativist "observations" and/or "hunches" because they're often wrong, especially when it comes to microscale temperature and boundary layer tendencies. This is complex stuff.

 

I'm still not convinced you understand what's happening on the Oregon Coast. Come out to Astoria next summer. Do some field work. Launch some weather balloons. Crunch the data. Then you would have a scientific opinion of what's happening out there.

 

In the meantime all you can offer is conjecture. From 3,000 miles away. 

[GHweatherChris]

GHweatherChris isn't the brightest candle the room.

I know where I live and how the weather can be drastically different no matter what the upper levels say they "should be".

[Front Ranger]

I didn't realize the ASOS sensors measured objective niceness now. About D**n time.

 

SEA was a direct measure of Tim's summer enjoyment throughout the month of July.

[Phil]

Micro climates, the Chehalis River gap, different variables.

 

Some of the same reasons I can get a bunch of snow sometimes in the winter when just 6 miles to the west of me gets nothing.

This doesn't come close to answering the question proposed to you. Why would their northward location matter, in relation to the specific nature of the ongoing pattern?

[Front Ranger]

VUO and HIO have both had issues with inflated temps in the last decade. VUO's issues are now fixed but they were extremely apparent between 2007 and 2012. It's not really a stretch to think other airports in the region are seeing equipment and maintenance issues with some regularity. SEA was clearly having big issues in the 2013-14 period and they are one of the foremost sites in the region.

 

SEA's numbers were at least somewhat explainable due to land changes and dominant patterns that maximized those differences.

 

AST, I have no idea what's going on. Could be a random thing, but the longer it continues, the less the chance of that.

[Phil]

I'm still not convinced you understand what's happening on the Oregon Coast. Come out to Astoria next summer. Do some field work. Launch some weather balloons. Crunch the data. Then you would have a scientific opinion of what's happening out there.

 

In the meantime all you can offer is conjecture. From 3,000 miles away.

So, the data reanalyses widely available on both the ESRL and NCEP/WPC sites is just conjecture? By those standards, the observed data @ AST is also just conjecture.

[wx_statman]

Truth bomb.

 

Haha. You're acting like nobody else here was aware of the issues at VUO and HIO (and CVO for that matter).

 

You just playing cheerleader or what?

[Front Ranger]

Warmer than normal anomalies at the coast has produced nicer than normal weather, weird.

 

But AST has still been a warm outlier. It's not even close. Like I said...look at Hoquiam's anomalies the past couple months. And Hoquiam is much closer to AST than North Bend, despite the fact that it's in a whole different state.

[Phil]

VUO and HIO have both had issues with inflated temps in the last decade. VUO's issues are now fixed but they were extremely apparent between 2007 and 2012. It's not really a stretch to think other airports in the region are seeing equipment and maintenance issues with some regularity. SEA was clearly having big issues in the 2013-14 period and they are one of the foremost sites in the region.

This, 100%.

 

I'm not sure why people are in denial about this..it literally happens all the time, everywhere. Just happened @ DCA last summer.

[GHweatherChris]

I think you're missing my point. How "beautiful" or "nice" the weather has been, according to your personal definition of such, doesn't tell us much about temp anomalies.

I get your point, opinions don't hold water. But, nostalgia can and should hold merit, when I hear someone (albeit mom) say this was one of the best in 35 years at the coast, then it had to be warmer than normal and beautiful.

 

Too bad there is no official sensor right on the Washington coast, if there was it would be above normal this summer.

 

Hoquiam is too far inland and honestly, Astoria technically is inland too.