September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Should be into the 50's by midnight!

 

That'll soothe some restless nerves.

I thought you liked warmth though?

 

I'm so confused.

[Deweydog]

I thought you liked warmth though?

 

I'm so confused.

You're a lost soul.

[Jesse]

You're a lost soul.

Unless PDX goes sub-60 pre-midnight!

[Bryant]

12Z EPS mean and control run are warm through day 15. Again.

So relieved that 15 day forecasts are reliable enough to rub in people's faces. Again.

[TT-SEA]

So relieved that 15 day forecasts are reliable enough to rub in people's faces. Again.

 

No Bryant.   I just report what it shows.   Plenty of posts from me about troughier runs, rainy WRF maps etc.   You never mention those posts.    Just when I report when the models show warm.   We should ignore all warm runs and just find something cold to talk about all the time?  

[Front Ranger]

Unless PDX goes sub-60 pre-midnight!

 

Lots of midnight lows coming!

 

The negative anomalies are not done yet this month.

[Deweydog]

Unless PDX goes sub-60 pre-midnight!

We're all pulling for you!

[TT-SEA]

Great game.   

[Weather101]

Great game.

Great way too start the NFL season off.

[Front Ranger]

Great way too start the NFL season off.

 

Broncos are lucky SOBs.

[Deweydog]

You guys are gonna suffer the wrath.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Broncos are lucky SOBs.

 

That defense just battered superman. 

[TT-SEA]

Broncos are lucky SOBs.

Glad to see Carolina get a loss out of the gate. Could help the Seahawks. Plus that punk Cam lost the very next game to the same team after storming off from his Super Bowl post game media session.

[Front Ranger]

PDX taking its sweet a** time dropping. Determined to make Jesse sweat it out, as usual.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z GFS MOS does not show 60s now for Sunday in Seattle.     74, 74, 71 the next 3 days at SEA.   

 

More noticeable drop at PDX... 80, 82, 72.

[Deweydog]

PDX taking its sweet a** time dropping. Determined to make Jesse sweat it out, as usual.

61 at 10pm.

 

Don't scare the poor kid.

[snow_wizard]

At least half of the recent GFS runs put us in a trough again during week two.  The ridge next week looks pretty flat on the 0z.

[snow_wizard]

Unless PDX goes sub-60 pre-midnight!

 

Remember it's actually 1am during daylight savings time.

[TT-SEA]

At least half of the recent GFS runs put us in a trough again during week two.  The ridge next week looks pretty flat on the 0z.

 

 

Very nice weather ahead.   Get out and enjoy it.   Rumor has it that it will rain for most of the next 6 months.   

[wx_statman]

Gorgeous 7 day outlook tonight -

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how that GOA ridge keeps popping up over and over again.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if the 0z GFS is right.  The GOA anomalies this summer have been in the top tier on the positive side.  Needless to say a continuation this winter would be something to behold.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing how that GOA ridge keeps popping up over and over again.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if the 0z GFS is right.  The GOA anomalies this summer have been in the top tier on the positive side.  Needless to say a continuation this winter would be something to behold.

 

 

2007-08?

[Front Ranger]

2007-08?

That winter only needed a bit more amplification of the offshore ridge to be awesome for the lowlands. In general, the ridge position was where you want it.

[TT-SEA]

That winter only needed a bit more amplification of the offshore ridge to be awesome for the lowlands. In general, the ridge position was where you want it.

Right. A winter to behold. It was here anyways. I have heard not so much elsewhere.

[TT-SEA]

Why did they get rid of the nice western US satellite images? Now they link you different ones which seem to have less resolution. The Seattle centered image on the NWS site does not even have the county borders. Hard to tell where places are located.

[Front Ranger]

Right. A winter to behold. It was here anyways. I have heard not so much elsewhere.

Which is, of course, why you brought it up with Jim. Classic Tim.

[Bryant]

No Bryant. I just report what it shows. Plenty of posts from me about troughier runs, rainy WRF maps etc. You never mention those posts. Just when I report when the models show warm. We should ignore all warm runs and just find something cold to talk about all the time?

It's the way you post about the warmth that stands out the most. You can tell that you're really trying to achieve a goal, and that goal isn't to just relay what the models show

[TT-SEA]

Which is, of course, why you brought it up with Jim. Classic Tim.

Classic Jim actually. It always works out the next time around. Might not be something to behold in the lowlands.

 

Could be... or could be nothing at all.

 

I was just questioning a declarative statement. Fair enough. You call me out for literally every declarative statement I make.

 

Double standard as Matt has pointed out many times.    Challenge Jim too.   Its OK... its a discussion about the science of weather.  

[GHweatherChris]

Why are we hoping for troughing right now when it does not matter for the winter?

[Front Ranger]

Classic Jim actually. It always works out the next time around. Might not be something to behold in the lowlands.

 

Could be... or could be nothing at all.

 

I was just questioning a declarative statement. Fair enough. You call me out for every declarative statement I make.

Classic Jim and Classic Tim are not mutually exclusive. More the opposite.

[TT-SEA]

Classic Jim and Classic Tim are not mutually exclusive. More the opposite.

 

 

When I make over-confident predictions or claims... you call me on it.   And you should.

 

Same thing should apply to everyone.  

 

No big deal.   I can challenge statements that are over-confident as well.    Jim makes lots of them.  

[GHweatherChris]

Classic Jim actually. It always works out the next time around. Might not be something to behold in the lowlands.

 

Could be... or could be nothing at all.

 

I was just questioning a declarative statement. Fair enough. You call me out for literally every declarative statement I make.

 

Double standard as Matt has pointed out many times. Challenge Jim too. Its OK... its a discussion about the science of weather.

Jim did not make a declarative statement though.

[TT-SEA]

Why are we hoping for troughing right now when it does not matter for the winter?

 

 

It always matters Chris!    

[Deweydog]

Always good to rediscover the fact an upcoming winter ***could*** be very disappointing for some.

[Front Ranger]

When I make over-confident predictions or claims... you call me on it. And you should.

 

Same thing should apply to everyone.

 

No big deal. I can challenge statements that are over-confident as well. Jim makes lots of them.

The difference between you and Jim has been explained many times. The only reason you don't get it is because of how Tim you are.

[TT-SEA]

Jim did not make a declarative statement though.

 

It would be something to behold.       

 

Maybe not.    Pretty strong assumption.   

[TT-SEA]

The difference between you and Jim has been explained many times. The only reason you don't get it is because of how Tim you are.

 

 

So what.   

 

Over-confident predictions should probably be challenged.   Regardless of the person making the claim.   Otherwise its just people rattling off wishcasts.   

[TT-SEA]

I am going to respectfully challenge Jim at times when he is over-confident.     Its OK.   Deal with it.   

 

Its not personal.   And many times I agree with him.   He challenges me as well.   

 

The banter afterwards is 10 times worse than the actual posts from myself and Jim.    

 

Just let it be.    

[GHweatherChris]

It would be something to behold.

 

Maybe not. Pretty strong assumption.

"Would" is not declarative.

[Front Ranger]

So what.

 

Over-confident predictions should probably be challenged. Regardless of the person making the claim. Otherwise its just people rattling of wishcasts.

My completely objective opinion is that I don't play favorites. I call out anyone, including myself. This is evident by the fact that I manage to offend just about everyone at some point. Including myself.

 

You just don't like being called out, period.