Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Offshore flow kicking in here, with the temp up to 67 after a low of 48. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Just reporting the trends. I will always gladly point it out if things trend faster/cooler with troughing too. The only thing really in jeopardy now is PDX finishing the month -2 or better.Don't post trends, wishcasting is better. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Interesting pattern for early October if it comes close to verifying. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gGAtmH.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Don't post trends, wishcasting is better. Early October will be colder than normal. No wishcasting there. I just wanted to point out the slight delay doesn't mean the troughing won't happen. You will see I actually do know something when it's all said and done. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Offshore flow kicking in here, with the temp up to 67 after a low of 48. I'm jealous you dropped to 48. The low sucked here last night thanks to cloud cover. At least the dp is lower than I thought it would be today. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 The cool/quiet IO is something more typical in -AMO eras, as they usually go hand-in-hand. I'm definitely leaning towards using 1980s analogs, though the polar stratosphere/BDC is nothing like what is was then. Lower solar and significant differences in upper atmospheric chemistry will make a difference..what sort of difference remains to be seen. I could live with some variation of the 1983 through 1985 period. A lot of big cold waves here during that period. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Interesting pattern for early October if it comes close to verifying. The models are really struggling with details with all of the cut off lows and blocks that are happening. I will be interested to see how October plays out. I'm 50/50 on a significant cold wave during the month. How is that for commitment? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Early October will be colder than normal. No wishcasting there. I just wanted to point out the slight delay doesn't mean the troughing won't happen. You will see I actually do know something when it's all said and done. I realize it doesn't mean it won't happen, I always hate slow cooldowns after warm events, though. Especially when they continually trend slower. I don't know what he meant by the wishcasting thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I realize it doesn't mean it won't happen, I always hate slow cooldowns after warm events, though. Especially when they continually trend slower. I don't know what he meant by the wishcasting thing. I understand. It is nice a sharp cooling Tuesday still appears to be on though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 The models are really struggling with details with all of the cut off lows and blocks that are happening. I will be interested to see how October plays out. I'm 50/50 on a significant cold wave during the month. How is that for commitment? So 50/50 huh? You really do know something. You can't be wrong. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Slower warming than I anticipated today. Still only 72 at PDX. Although this time of year it is common to see a big afternoon spike on warm days. Especially if/when offshore winds surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Slower warming than I anticipated today. Still only 72 at PDX. Although this time of year it is common to see a big afternoon spike on warm days. Especially if/when offshore winds surface.Models backed off on the sharpness of the thermal trough late in the game. Doesn't look like things will mix out fully today. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Models backed off on the sharpness of the thermal trough late in the game. Doesn't look like things will mix out fully today. I was noticing that, but figured we'd still get something. Upper 70s? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I was noticing that, but figured we'd still get something. Upper 70s?Should still get to 80. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Should still get to 80.If there's a god, it will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 We just might see a warm period fall short of expectations. What is the world coming to? 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I was noticing that, but figured we'd still get something. Upper 70s? 90 tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 90 tomorrow.An imaginary one like on 9/16, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 If there's a god, it will.Or at least an atmosphere. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 An imaginary one like on 9/16, right? Overachiever. Blob. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I won't get to upset about 70s in September... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I won't get to upset about 70s in September... Where is upset? I don't think I'll get to there either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I realize it doesn't mean it won't happen, I always hate slow cooldowns after warm events, though. Especially when they continually trend slower. I don't know what he meant by the wishcasting thing.A joke lol relax. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 A joke lol relax.i am relaxed lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Pretty stellar day out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Overachiever. Blob.Both solid points. Hmmmm.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Hawks are looking great. Wilson is on fire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 i am relaxed lol Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 lol i love that emoticon its just to funny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 lol i love that emoticon its just to funny Relax. It's only 80. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Relax. It's only 80.I know. It's pretty nice out right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 This will be the third September in four years cooler than June across the region. Likely the coolest September since at least 2005 for most places. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 i am relaxed lolWHY IS EVERYONE YELLING AT ME Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 WHY IS EVERYONE YELLING AT ME 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Almost a ten degree spike in DPs at PDX over the last hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Then we should bet.I am thinking slightly cooler than normal. I might take you on the bet. SEA makes me a bit nervous, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 This will be the third September in four years cooler than June across the region. Likely the coolest September since at least 2005 for most places.The region is massively overdue for a warm September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 The 18z comes dangerously close to bringing contiental cold air to the NW once again. The last three runs either deliver or come close. The big story continues to be the ultra persistent GOA ridge. Essentially historic in its tenacity. 1949 is actually one of the closest matches to it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Feels like summer on Lake Sammamish right now. Lake is packed too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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