September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[GobBluth]

ugh, that long range broad ridge pattern is a nightmare.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I hope you won't be a Debbie Downer this winter.  I think we will have some fun times.

I will call it as I see it, just like you will. It is not being a downer, just the fact you do not like reading/hearing someone who may have doubts or not agree 100% with you. If it looks good I am excited, but I try to keep myself in check as over inflating "reality" often leads to an emotional crushing experience (as I know you are aware)... I am excited about the possibilities and am every year -- but I am not going to make crap up (wishcast) to make myself or others feel better.    --

 

Let's hope we all score!  I honestly hope you score Jim as you have seemed to have gotten screwed a lot in your area the past many years. Cheers!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, 06z run was much better. No flat ridge south of the Aleutians. I have an irrational fear of that pattern, given the last several years. Does nothing but promote a Hudson Bay vortex in the long run.

Nah, I would not be so hard on yourself to call it "irrational", as I kind-of-have the same thoughts. It is more based on the patterns we have seen for sometime and I know that is not a precedence for the future but it does make you second guess yourself as there are patterns that settle in that are not always in our favor and can be hard to break out of... BUT won't it be exciting when we do!!??

[stuffradio]

Fairly low mountain snow in the long range at hour 264. 535 thickness, 553 heights and -4 850mb.

 

CFSV2 has drastically "cooled" in today's monthly for October. It shows only slightly above average temps for the west, and it even has tiny blotches of blue in CA.

[Phil]

Similarities to October of 2010 on the 12z GFS/GEFS.

[Phil]

October precursor fans will enjoy this: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3968/abstract

 

Obviously, modeling suggests a strong ridge over the Taymyr Penninsula to open October. If this continues through October, it'd suggest a -AO winter is highly likely (assuming the research is legitimate). This would be a departure from the last several winters, which were mostly +AO.

[stuffradio]

Similarities to October of 2010 on the 12z GFS/GEFS.

I had snow Nov 2010 and a slightly white Christmas Dec 2010.

[Phil]

Long range 12z GFS/GEFS are also +EPO/GOA vortex in the extended range w/ that flat offshore ridge rearing its ugly head.

 

Would be a normalish/zonal pattern (verbatim), but otherwise quite unproductive from a dynamics standpoint, in that it'll make it more difficult for additional GOA wavebreaking to occur until something can pop it.

[Front Ranger]

SEA will probably be right at normal for September after today.     Standing at -0.2 right now.  

 

Nice to have these daily updates again.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is really nice.

 

Dry through Friday... then a weak system on Saturday... then basically dry and partly cloudy from Sunday onward.   The system Sunday is focused on Northern California.  

And its surprisingly almost totally dry for next week.    Looks like some nice early October weather... cool and partly cloudy. 

[TT-SEA]

Great day... went from dark and drizzly around 9 a.m. to completely sunny and in the mid-60s now here.

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF is really nice.

 

Dry through Friday... then a weak system on Saturday... then basically dry and partly cloudy from Sunday onward. The system Sunday is focused on Northern California.

And its surprisingly almost totally dry for next week. Looks like some nice early October weather... cool and partly cloudy.

If I can't have a big storm this weekend at the coast I would rather have it mostly dry so that would work as well!

[TT-SEA]

If I can't have a big storm this weekend at the coast I would rather have it mostly dry so that would work as well!

 

 

Saturday is pretty wet down there.   Sunday is showery on the coast as well.  

[MossMan]

Saturday is pretty wet down there. Sunday is showery on the coast as well.

Not what I want to hear.

[TT-SEA]

Not what I want to hear.

 

 

Damp but not a big storm... typical early October weather on the coast.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS has a very long period of below normal temps now.  Looks like GOA ridiging will continue to mid October at least.  Perfect.

 

On another note...what an awesome day today.  That cold front that dropped down from the NW really dropped the dp and the air had a nice crisp feel to it.  Going to be nippy in the outlying areas tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to have these daily updates again.

 

It's all so pointless anyway.  SEA is one of the only stations around that won't be decently below normal this month.  Certainly below normal IMBY.

[TT-SEA]

It's all so pointless anyway.  SEA is one of the only stations around that won't be decently below normal this month.  Certainly below normal IMBY.

 

 

WFO SEA is running the same as SEA

 

Quillayute is running about the same as SEA.

 

Hoquiam is running about the same as SEA.

 

BLI is running warmer than SEA and above normal now at +0.9

 

 

You statement is incorrect.

[snow_wizard]

Only a few degrees warmer than it was this morning as 6:45pm.  I'm liking this new air mass.

[Trainwreck]

It's cold out. Brrrrrr

[snow_wizard]

No longer has an account

 

I would love to know how old he really is.

[MossMan]

I would love to know how old he really is.

Didn't someone once ask him what his age was and he got upset (in a still amped up enthusiastic way) and decide to leave the forum? I vaguely remember something along those lines. He was either a very excited kid (every last one of us would have posted just like him if we had this thing called the Internet when we were kids) or he was a 48yr old guy that liked his bath salts.

[snow_wizard]

Didn't someone once ask him what his age was and he got upset (in a still amped up enthusiastic way) and decide to leave the forum? I vaguely remember something along those lines. He was either a very excited kid (every last one of us would have posted just like him if we had this thing called the Internet when we were kids) or he was a 48yr old guy that liked his bath salts.

 

A few things he said led me to believe he could be middle aged.  Really a hard guy to figure out.

[snow_wizard]

Already 2 degrees below my low last night.

[Front Ranger]

A few things he said led me to believe he could be middle aged.  Really a hard guy to figure out.

 

He talked about his 401k a couple times. I think he was older than most think.

[Front Ranger]

Already 2 degrees below my low last night.

 

So is SEA. + anomalies slipping away!!

[snow_wizard]

Dropping like a rock here tonight.  Already down to 52 which is 6 degrees below this morning's low.

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty striking how different the low level air masses are between SEA and PDX tonight. SEA is much cooler/ drier.  That cold front must have stalled just south of here.  Today was amazing up this way with brisk north winds and fairly low dps.

[snow_wizard]

The East Coast gets hammered with a major hurricane on this run and before day 10.

 

At day 10 the GFS looks poised to spawn another GOA ridge. I'm loving this!

[snow_wizard]

So is SEA. + anomalies slipping away!!

 

Little doubt even they will end up below normal for the month.

[Phil]

The East Coast gets hammered with a major hurricane on this run and before day 10.

 

At day 10 the GFS looks poised to spawn another GOA ridge. I'm loving this!

Well, the 00z GFS is depicting what would be the strongest October -NAO on record. Looks similar to 1959 and 1942 at 500mb, maybe with a little 1995 sprinkled in.

 

This has the vibes of a wild one. I think someone is gonna get nailed this winter, especially considering the -ENSO/+QBO analogs are beaten the drum for heavy midwinter blocking (especially in January and March).

[TT-SEA]

So is SEA. + anomalies slipping away!!

 

 

Going to be a slightly cooler than normal month at SEA.     Very much like 2015.

 

Same at WFO SEA, and Hoquiam, and Quillayute.

 

Slightly above normal at BLI.

[TT-SEA]

Well, the 00z GFS is depicting what would be the strongest October -NAO on record. Looks similar to 1959 and 1942 at 500mb, maybe with a little 1995 sprinkled in.

 

This has the vibes of a wild one. I think someone is gonna get nailed this winter, especially considering the -ENSO/+QBO analogs are beaten the drum for heavy midwinter blocking (especially in January and March).

 

 

I suspect Minneapolis and Chicago.  

[snow_wizard]

I think it may go below 40 here tonight.  Much faster temp drop than I expected and I was expecting it to be pretty good.

[snow_wizard]

Well, the 00z GFS is depicting what would be the strongest October -NAO on record. Looks similar to 1959 and 1942 at 500mb, maybe with a little 1995 sprinkled in.

 

This has the vibes of a wild one. I think someone is gonna get nailed this winter, especially considering the -ENSO/+QBO analogs are beaten the drum for heavy midwinter blocking (especially in January and March).

 

I am beyond stoked right now.  This looks like it's really coming together for us.

[ShawniganLake]

I suspect Minneapolis and Chicago.

Why

[TT-SEA]

Why

 

 

Don't they always get nailed?   

[Phil]

I suspect Minneapolis and Chicago.

As they do every year?

[TT-SEA]

As they do every year?

 

 

See above.  

[Phil]

See above.

Ah, ninja'd again.

 

Yeah, even their warmest winters are frigid by everyone else's standards.