snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Don't they always get nailed? He was saying anomalously nailed. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 He was saying anomalously nailed.Yea. Chicago's climate isn't that brutally cold really. Obviously they will see their fair share of cold days though. Similar to the BC Okanagan Valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 I think it may go below 40 here tonight. Much faster temp drop than I expected and I was expecting it to be pretty good.Currently 54 degrees here and breezy. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Currently 54 degrees here and breezy. Yeah... some high and mid level clouds formed overnight. SEA did not even get down to the normal low. Side note... SEA is now exactly at normal for September. Still running way being Bellingham though which is almost +1.0. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 GFS ensembles trending warmer as we head into October... http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Nice morning. An interesting band of high clouds moving overhead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 00z Euro and its ensembles are looking impressively troughy over the next 10 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 11F this morning in Tok, Alaska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Yea. Chicago's climate isn't that brutally cold really. Obviously they will see their fair share of cold days though. Similar to the BC Okanagan Valley. Most winters it isn't, but there's periods where it is pretty brutal. Went down to 47° this morning. Still cloudy here in central King County. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 It's pretty striking how different the low level air masses are between SEA and PDX tonight. SEA is much cooler/ drier. That cold front must have stalled just south of here. Today was amazing up this way with brisk north winds and fairly low dps.Ironically, PDX ended up three degrees cooler than SEA this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 42F here this morning. The coldest I could find on Vancouver island was a 34F low up near Comox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 12Z GFS ensembles look below average for the entire run for PDX. I am sure they look warmer for SEA, but then again that was the general theme this entire month, and PDX is -1.5 while SEA is just around average. So maybe they aren't that far off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 12Z GFS ensembles look below average for the entire run for PDX. I am sure they look warmer for SEA, but then again that was the general theme this entire month, and PDX is -1.5 while SEA is just around average. So maybe they aren't that far off.Canadian was pretty chilly too. BC turns much colder late in the run as well. Strong SE ridge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Canadian was pretty chilly too. BC turns much colder late in the run as well. Strong SE ridge.How are you guys running up there this month so far, compared to last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 New ECMWF weeklies are strange looking. Basically revert to something resembling a Niño for most of the run. Color me skeptical. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 New ECMWF weeklies are strange looking. Basically revert to something resembling a Niño for most of the run. Color me skeptical.Haven't they been doing that for months now? I remember the much celebrated runs that showed a warm, ridgy September for the PNW. That didn't work out too well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Haven't they been doing that for months now?They've been warm biased in the PNW out the wazoo since June, yeah, but I'm referring to the general orientation of the pattern and tropical convection on this run. Sort of like 2014/15 I think. Looks like BS to me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 How are you guys running up there this month so far, compared to last year?Shawnigan Lake is normal for the month. 1.6F warmer than last year. Victoria is roughly +0.8F for September. 2.2F warmer than last September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Shawnigan Lake is normal for the month. 1.6F warmer than last year. Victoria is roughly +0.8F for September. 2.2F warmer than last September.How strange. Then you have this for the majority of the region state side. Cooler overall than last September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 How strange. Then you have this for the majority of the region state side. Cooler overall than last September. image.pngSomeone has to represent diversity. We can't all conform to the rest of the region, can we!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Lol @ Astoria. Just one below average day all month? Very different "pattern" this time, as well. Running a healthy +2.3 for the month as a whole. #BS Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Solidly cool Euro run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Solidly cool Euro run. Easily cooler than 0z, in fact. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Easily cooler than 0z, in fact. There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Lol @ Astoria. Just one below average day all month? Very different "pattern" this time, as well. Running a healthy +2.3 for the month as a whole. #BS Every month that goes by with them as a big outlier, the odds go up that something's not right. It's been 3 straight months, I'd say at least 50% chance now the sensor is out of whack. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now!Next it'll be "we're blowing our load too early", or something along those lines. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Easily cooler than 0z, in fact. Good storm in the middle of next week as well. The system Sunday still goes way south but then the jet lifts a little more north. Still a ripe environment for a windstorm as I mentioned earlier this week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now! Perfect name for the infamous Tim smiley. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Perfect name for the infamous Tim smiley. troll1.jpg That's pretty close to how I imagine him looking in my head. Complete with the hand around the neck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Next it'll be "we're blowing our load too early", or something along those lines. Don't feed him... he is anxious enough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Every month that goes by with them as a big outlier, the odds go up that something's not right. It's been 3 straight months, I'd say at least 50% chance now the sensor is out of whack.Yeah, the ratio between AST's temperatures and the 925mb temperatures changed abruptly this summer (regardless of the pattern). That's usually a clue that something is wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Here September 2015 was pretty much normal (only -0.1 from normal Mean). Despite some days in the 50's we managed many way above average highs in the 90's and 80's last year, evened things out. This month is quite a bit cooler, no late summer "heatwaves" in the last month. If the next 3 highs pan out we're looking at -1.7 for this months Mean. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Next it'll be "we're blowing our load too early", or something along those lines. Gotta try our best to find new and creative ways to attempt to upset Jim! It's why the forum is here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Perfect name for the infamous Tim smiley. troll1.jpgHe's not the only one guilty of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now! I expect to see several big model images the next time the Euro shows a split flow pattern with a trough in a holding pattern 200 miles off the CA coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 I expect to see several big model images the next time the Euro shows a split flow pattern with a trough in a holding pattern 200 miles off the CA coast. That is a nice pattern! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Key to this 12z ECMWF run is the W/SW displacement of the NPAC vortex. Constructively interfereres with the -EPO, which keeps western troughing in place. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6E93E489-BAAA-4B60-9922-9CB85788BFD3_zpswc1ooscu.gif 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Also, ECMWF depicts a cat-5 monster sitting off the SE coast, with ridging building in from the west. Delicate situation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 It's amazing to me how many people are including El Niño and/or -QBO years in their analog packages, solely based off the "blob" in the NPAC. Is there an entire world of literature and/or quantitatively-derived research that I'm foolishly unaware of? What am I missing? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Yeah, the ratio between AST's temperatures and the 925mb temperatures changed abruptly this summer (regardless of the pattern). That's usually a clue that something is wrong.Definitely more compelling with the changing season. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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