jaster220 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Direct path where my brother lives For the county where my buddy lives near Cape Canaveral. I never read one of these but man, that's some serious wording. Winds, floods, twisters, surging tides....you get it all with a serious cane....sheesh Edit: that's a bit south, he's near Port St. John, but same watch in effect. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm so over hurricanes. your reason(s)? I don't wish for them but they keep this time of year more interesting on the wx front. Can't stop 'em Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I hadn't seen this before. Didn't realize Charlie packed such a punch. This thing was heading straight for Venice where my Mom, Aunt, and Uncle were all living at the time in retirement double-wides. It took a last minute jog east. So glad too. (no, I don't want this in my 'hood, but wow! just watched it again. This is the closest I wanna get to such a storm tbh ) https://youtu.be/unV5KcSrY-I 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I hadn't seen this before. Didn't realize Charlie packed such a punch. This thing was heading straight for Venice where my Mom, Aunt, and Uncle were all living at the time in retirement double-wides. It took a last minute jog east. So glad too. (no, I don't want this in my 'hood, but wow! just watched it again. This is the closest I wanna get to such a storm tbh ) https://youtu.be/unV5KcSrY-ICan you imagine pumping gas, while experiencing that??!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Thats some heavy wording. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The euro has become pretty flat with the weekend trough, not really getting too chilly around here. It's also pretty warm in the extended. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The euro has become pretty flat with the weekend trough, not really getting too chilly around here. It's also pretty warm in the extended.I noticed the GFS is warm and dry in the extended as well. Not a good start to the new LRC if this verifies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The euro has become pretty flat with the weekend trough, not really getting too chilly around here. It's also pretty warm in the extended. I noticed the GFS is warm and dry in the extended as well. Not a good start to the new LRC if this verifies. Iirc, Lezak has stressed that his LRC propagates across the hemisphere (CONUS) in more or less a N to S fashion with the progression of the new cold season. I'd worry more about what's going on "upstream" from us than what's going on down at our latitudes. In '81, I don't recall seeing a flake before Dec. Even had a strong April-like T-storm that month. First real snow was a couple days before Christmas...the rest is now infamous history. 2007 is a more recent example. If N. Canada remains warm and dry....then I'll join you in wringing hands but not before Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z Euro is indeed torchy in the extended. The blocking pattern allows Canada to fill up with some real cold air. This time of year, -AO/NAO respond differently than in the winter/spring months. Some peeps may get their first heavy frost this weekend and then the warmth will invade. Indian Summer anyone??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I took a look at the teleconnections response in the month of October for the lower 48. Here is the AO/NAO.... AO http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/AO/AOneg_10oct.png NAO...Once you get into Nov, then you start seeing colder anomalies, more so in Dec-Mar http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/NAO/NAOneg_10oct.png I've also included a +PNA... http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/PNA/PNApos_10oct.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I took a look at the teleconnections response in the month of October for the lower 48. Here is the AO/NAO.... AO http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/AO/AOneg_10oct.png NAO...Once you get into Nov, then you start seeing colder anomalies, more so in Dec-Mar http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/NAO/NAOneg_10oct.png I've also included a +PNA... http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/PNA/PNApos_10oct.pngNo images in that post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z Euro is indeed torchy in the extended. The blocking pattern allows Canada to fill up with some real cold air. This time of year, -AO/NAO respond differently than in the winter/spring months. Some peeps may get their first heavy frost this weekend and then the warmth will invade. Indian Summer anyone???I think I got my threads mixed up the other day but I believe there's no problem with a CONUS torch in October and November. According to analogs, should see a brief hard cold shot in late November and then again in mid to late December. I'm not too worried. Had no clue my analogs were going to be that perfect for September. Major confidence boost for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 No images in that post.Dang it...here is the -AO/NAO and +PNA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 @ Okwx, what is the EPO looking like? Is it turning positive?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 your reason(s)? I don't wish for them but they keep this time of year more interesting on the wx front. Can't stop 'emIt's like tornadoes to me. Never understood the joy some get out of seeing people's lives get destroyed. People literally drive to these places to experience that type of weather but they usually do nothing to help or support those whose lives are destroyed. It's just a bug I have. Not aggravated at anyone. I was ok with it when it was about science, now it's just a spectacle and stuff for everyone to over sensationalize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 AO NAO EPO PNA I'd call that a loading pattern for cold in the late part of October if not sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 AOecmwf_ao_bias-3.png NAOecmwf_nao_bias-1.png EPOecmwf_epo_bias.png PNAecmwf_pna_bias-1.png I'd call that a loading pattern for cold in the late part of October if not sooner.I'd say so! Euro continues with it's EPO issues. It keeps delaying the positive spike. You have to wonder, maybe the models are missing something with all that blocking??!! 18z GFS run is showing more cooling through the 13th which is exactly when the Euro has the EPO begin going positive. I wonder if we see models continue the warmer look or start trending cooler Day 5-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Has Lezak given any updates on the new LRC or any new thoughts on it?Nice to see GFS look a bit cooler. 12z looked torchy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Models really took a jump west with Matthew. 12z Euro has a direct hit on east central FL now.Evacuations going down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Has Lezak given any updates on the new LRC or any new thoughts on it?Nice to see GFS look a bit cooler. 12z looked torchy.No, not yet. He prob will sometime later this week. October 7th is normally when the new pattern locks in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'd say so! Euro continues with it's EPO issues. It keeps delaying the positive spike. You have to wonder, maybe the models are missing something with all that blocking??!! 18z GFS run is showing more cooling through the 13th which is exactly when the Euro has the EPO begin going positive. I wonder if we see models continue the warmer look or start trending cooler Day 5-10.There is that possibility. I'm kind of using a pretty solid blend when looking at the longer ranges at this time. The weeklies had the later cold punch around the very end of the 3rd week of October. I think that's a pretty solid time frame still. There should be better agreement amongst latter ranges of the models after the big front goes through this weekend. I still maintain that an above normal October overall would be par for the course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Some nice weather is looking likely with no Rain in the forecast at all for most in this forum, well, almost all. Enjoy it while you have it. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 It's a very pleasant, almost summery feel this morning with sunny skies and a nice breeze from the south. Humidity has ticked up a bit but out ahead of a weak front from the storm targeting southern Canada. Interesting small little storm will develop along a frontal boundary on Thursday in the Plains and track towards the western Lakes... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016100506/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_38.png Rain/Snow mix for the Arrowhead???? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016100500/namconus_asnow_ncus_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 A rather peculiar development in the stratosphere Day 5-10 is positioned to develop over N.A next week. The Euro is suggesting a weakening state of the PV, with an elongating of the vortex and nearly splitting it by Day 10. 00z GFS shows a piece of the PV dipping down near Hudson Bay by the 11th. Euro Day 10.... http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif If you'd show me this sort of map in the Winter with all the blocking present, I'd say, look out. At 500mb, the new LRC is showing an ominous look for cold intrusion into the lower 48 if this hypothetically is the "look" as we head deeper into the cold season. I know the models are showing a ridge underneath, but with seasonal differences in the jet stream later on, this is something to keep in the back of your mind once this part of the LRC cycles through in late November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 A hard Frost is likely for parts of NE/KS Thu night.... http://www.weather.gov/images/lbf/GraphiCast/FileL.png http://www.weather.gov/images/gld/GraphiCast/FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Funny we're now talking freezes when temps have rebounded over here like summer. I've noticed over the years that SMI will remain warm if there's a 'cane roaming the GOMEX or eastern seaboard. That tropical stuff will need to play out before we see chilly wx visiting mby in Marshall. Matthew looks to make an impact. Guys (Andrew, Hugo, Matthew) wanna rough up the EC, girls like the gulf coast it seems Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 It's like tornadoes to me. Never understood the joy some get out of seeing people's lives get destroyed. People literally drive to these places to experience that type of weather but they usually do nothing to help or support those whose lives are destroyed. It's just a bug I have. Not aggravated at anyone. I was ok with it when it was about science, now it's just a spectacle and stuff for everyone to over sensationalize. THAT! /\/\ Couldn't agree more...total lack of concern is rampant in these chasers from what I've seen. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 I ended with 2.00" of rain over the past two days. I'm hoping to avoid a hard frost as my tomato plants are still producing! Here is the rainfall estimates over the area. Not all were as lucky, but if this was the beginning to the LRC it was a good start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Funny we're now talking freezes when temps have rebounded over here like summer. I've noticed over the years that SMI will remain warm if there's a 'cane roaming the GOMEX or eastern seaboard. That tropical stuff will need to play out before we see chilly wx visiting mby in Marshall. Matthew looks to make an impact. Guys (Andrew, Hugo, Matthew) wanna rough up the EC, girls like the gulf coast it seemsI agree, Matthew is probably going to keep trying to push the ridge into our region as tropical systems like to "vent" into our area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 I ended with 2.00" of rain over the past two days. I'm hoping to avoid a hard frost as my tomato plants are still producing! Here is the rainfall estimates over the area. Not all were as lucky, but if this was the beginning to the LRC it was a good start!That's awesome that you still have plants producing. Late August and September drought and heat made any that survived here so bitter they were nasty to eat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 I found this on social media...kinda creepy if you ask me...is this nature saying something...??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yup....GFS showing a nice compact system thu/fri and another one late next week.Anyone notice how active Canada is on the models. Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 @ Okwx, regarding the EPO map you posted from the Euro, it got me to jog my memory from the past 2 winters at how both the GFS/EURO did a bad job handling the warm ring along NW NAMER and where to place the trough. I did some digging and I find some interesting model errors for both the GFS/EURO. Check out the differences in both models from Day 10 to the Day 5 500mb pattern near NW NAMER. Both GFS/EURO missed the -AO and also the ridge along NW NAMER. 12z EPS/EURO from Sep 30th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016093012/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016093012/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png 12z GEFS/GFS Sept 30th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016093012/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093012/gfs_z500a_namer_41.png GFS did a better job with the -AO and that's why I like using that model past Day 7 hemispherically speaking. Now here is today's 12z run from both the EURO/GFS for Day 5... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100512/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_z500a_namer_21.png Both models are moving the trough farther offshore. I wonder if this will be a theme for the cold season moving forward again. Just a though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 I found this on social media...kinda creepy if you ask me...is this nature saying something...??? That is strange!! But kinda cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 12z EPS correction at 500mb by Day 7 continues retrograding the trough farther off the NW NAMER coast. I see the same bias developing of which we have seen over the past couple winters. Here is the current Day 7 run... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png Here is what it looked like 2 days ago... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100312/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png If that ridge is stronger along the NW NAMER coast, I could see a deeper trough down the central states. Today's run is missing the connection down in the Gulf. Wonder if future runs show the connection. 850's from today vs 2 days ago... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100512/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_8.png vs... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100312/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_10.png Euro is backing off the ridge building into the central CONUS. If you flip through from 2 days ago, the trough signal is getting deeper each day. We'll see how it plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 @ Okwx, regarding the EPO map you posted from the Euro, it got me to jog my memory from the past 2 winters at how both the GFS/EURO did a bad job handling the warm ring along NW NAMER and where to place the trough. I did some digging and I find some interesting model errors for both the GFS/EURO. Check out the differences in both models from Day 10 to the Day 5 500mb pattern near NW NAMER. Both GFS/EURO missed the -AO and also the ridge along NW NAMER. 12z EPS/EURO from Sep 30th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016093012/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016093012/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png 12z GEFS/GFS Sept 30th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016093012/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093012/gfs_z500a_namer_41.png GFS did a better job with the -AO and that's why I like using that model past Day 7 hemispherically speaking. Now here is today's 12z run from both the EURO/GFS for Day 5... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100512/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_z500a_namer_21.png Both models are moving the trough farther offshore. I wonder if this will be a theme for the cold season moving forward again. Just a though.That is pretty interesting. My "go to" method as of late with the GFS at 7-10 is to add the eastern trough into its normal position downstream of the PAC trough. With surface temps I have been adding 2 or 3 degrees to the cooldowns at that range and so far it's worked pretty well. Your bottom maps should have a trough somewhere in the east. I doubt the pattern is just going to break like that. Both models do have the EPO in a spike on the day shown but I do believe it will crash again shortly (3rd week of Oct). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 That is pretty interesting. My "go to" method as of late with the GFS at 7-10 is to add the eastern trough into its normal position downstream of the PAC trough. With surface temps I have been adding 2 or 3 degrees to the cooldowns at that range and so far it's worked pretty well. Your bottom maps should have a trough somewhere in the east. I doubt the pattern is just going to break like that. Both models do have the EPO in a spike on the day shown but I do believe it will crash again shortly (3rd week of Oct).CFS has been advertising a cool down during this period also. Ups and downs of typical Autumn weather. Today its fantastic! Hit a high of 80F with nice southerly breeze. I did some cardio at the park earlier doing sprints and abs...busted a sweat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Good job noticing this stuff guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2016 Report Share Posted October 6, 2016 http://www.rd.com/advice/13-things-your-tv-weatherman-wont-tell-you/ 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2016 Report Share Posted October 6, 2016 What a gorgeous day is was here in SEMI. It will continue all week, Thank goodness I did not adjust the AC to Heat in my home. I think I'll wait another week or 2. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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