October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Top wind here last night was 18mph... impressive.. lol..

[westcoastexpat]

Top wind here last night was 18mph... impressive.. lol..

 

I'd say best chance for Seattle's winds from the current system is just after noon today... strongest upper air winds moving onshore early this afternoon. A decent amount of instability there as well, cold air advection is looking really impressive, which will aid in bringing some of those higher gusts down to the surface. I wouldn't be surprised to see localized 55 mph gusts in the Puget sound area later today.

[MossMan]

Waterspout may have come onshore Long Beach, WA overnight:

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-14 at 8.58.28 AM.png

Screen Shot 2016-10-14 at 8.59.07 AM.png

Wow that would have been something else! I was there two weeks ago, hopefully damage was limited.

[MossMan]

Very wet and breezy boarding on windy! Rain pounding against the south facing window.

[TT-SEA]

ENSO regions warming again... here is the last 7 days:

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

 

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[westcoastexpat]

Tornado warning #2

 

[MossMan]

ENSO regions warming again... here is the last 7 days:

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

 

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

Do they need to re cancel the newly uncancelled La Niña?

[westcoastexpat]

ENSO regions warming again... here is the last 7 days:

 

 

 

 

This is not surprising. ENSO is always a bit of a yoyo as the different waves propagate across the equator. The trend overall is cooling. I would expect the waters to take two steps forward (cooling) and one step back (warming) as the La Nina continues to strengthen. The real question is how strong will the La Nina be, and will it be west/central/east based during our prime winter months.

[TT-SEA]

This is not surprising. ENSO is always a bit of a yoyo as the different waves propagate across the equator. The trend overall is cooling. I would expect the waters to take two steps forward (cooling) and one step back (warming) as the La Nina continues to strengthen. The real question is how strong will the La Nina be, and will it be west/central/east based during our prime winter months.

 

 

West-based Nina seems likely... which is supposed to be good for us in the winter.  

[MossMan]

And we just lost power, heard the transformer blow. Wind is only gusting to perhaps 25-30.

[Brennan]

Had kind of a lull overnight but the wind is really picking up again. Sustained 30mph with gusts to 50 at the moment. Main band of rain just missing my location to the south. Wish I was out at Lake Whatcom right now. I’ll be driving out there shortly!

[westcoastexpat]

Had kind of a lull overnight but the wind is really picking up again. Sustained 30mph with gusts to 50 at the moment. Main band of rain just missing my location to the south. Wish I was out at Lake Whatcom right now. I’ll be driving out there shortly!

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see some 55-60 mph gusts this afternoon in your neck of the woods.

[Jbolin]

Second Tornado Warning of the morning for the coastal areas of Wa/Or

Nehelam\Rockaway Beach area

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The wind is finally starting to pick up here after a night of moderate/heavy rain. It's still out of the SE but it is going to be wild when this thing passes through and it switches to SW. With this happening on a Friday afternoon much later than previously forecast it will catch people off guard. Makes me wonder what sort of surprises the Saturday strom will hold.

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/storm20161014_zpscqc0barq.png

[bainbridgekid]

The new 12z MM5-NAM shows isolated 55-60 mph gusts this afternoon coming up the Central Sound.

 

.

[westcoastexpat]

Second Tornado Warning of the morning for the coastal areas of Wa/Or

 

Nehelam\Rockaway Beach area

 

It's the third believe it or not!

[MossMan]

Stormy!! My 2.5yr old daughter just said, she is correct!

[Jbolin]

Heavy damage being reported by law enforcement in Mazanita, Or

[Geos]

Winds got gusty really early this morning. Some significant power outages in Kirkland I know.

2.11" of rain so far - as of 8:30am.

 

Impressive system to have spawned a tornado/waterspout last night. And hail this morning in central King County.

[Jbolin]

 Scanner: tornado has destroyed numerous buildings & knocked down 80 trees in Manzanita. Power being shut off to town. #koin6news

 

Via @KohrhKOIN on Twitter 

[Geos]

Tornado warning NW OR.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
825 AM PDT FRI OCT 14 2016

ORC007-141545-
/O.CON.KPQR.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-161014T1545Z/
CLATSOP OR-
825 AM PDT FRI OCT 14 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL CLATSOP COUNTY...

AT 824 AM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MANZANITA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELSIE...NECANICUM AND HAMLET.

IN OREGON THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 26 WEST OF PORTLAND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 8 AND 23.

[westcoastexpat]

Hope nobody was hurt. It's a shame that the SPC decided not to pull the trigger on a TS watch overnight. They contemplated it. It's not really that surprising given the impressive cold air advection... deepening lows are always unpredictable.

[Jbolin]

Sounds like Manzanita, Oregon took a direct hit from a tornado, Major damage being reported per scanner

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Seems to be a strong amount of model agreement on the timing and placement of Saturday's storm but still 10~20mb differences on the intensity.

[westcoastexpat]

Seems to be a strong amount of model agreement on the timing and placement of Saturday's storm but still 10~20mb differences on the intensity.

 

Models continue to keep the low offshore and tick further north. Seems like the usual trend of the low veering north. Strongest impacts continue to shift north.

 

12Z GFS is pretty serious for Seattle. We're looking at 75 mph gusts.

 

Honestly though, I wouldn't be surprised to see this end up being a Whatcom county special. I think this thing is going to continue trending north.

[Tundra]

Wow a tornado just hit Manzanita. Hopefully somebody was able to take video.

[westcoastexpat]

Wow a tornado just hit Manzanita. Hopefully somebody was able to take video.

 

Let's hope everybody is okay first.

[MossMan]

Models continue to keep the low offshore and tick further north. Seems like the usual trend of the low veering north. Strongest impacts continue to shift north.

 

12Z GFS is pretty serious for Seattle. We're looking at 75 mph gusts.

 

Honestly though, I wouldn't be surprised to see this end up being a Whatcom county special. I think this thing is going to continue trending north.

Though wow if the 12z verified, been a long time since Seattle has seen gusts that high. Is the timing still for after sunset Saturday evening for the ramp up in Puget Sound?

[Jbolin]

Wow a tornado just hit Manzanita. Hopefully somebody was able to take video.

Video ( Sideways ) 

 

https://www.facebook.com/darryl.crawford.37/videos/956074414497145/

[westcoastexpat]

Though wow if the 12z verified, been a long time since Seattle has seen gusts that high. Is the timing still for after sunset Saturday evening for the ramp up in Puget Sound?

 

Timing hasn't changed it seems.

[Tundra]

Let's hope everybody is okay first.

 

Of course.

[Tundra]

Video ( Sideways ) 

 

https://www.facebook.com/darryl.crawford.37/videos/956074414497145/

 

Thanks, I've never seen something like that here in the PNW. I hope nobody got injured.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like there was some pretty bad damage in Manzanita with that tornado. Crazy stuff at the coast this morning 

[Jbolin]

New tornado warning for Pacific county until 945am 

[westcoastexpat]

I don't see 75mph on the 12z WRF. Looks like at most 60mph, which is still considerable. Definitely not as large of area being effected though. Even the North sound doesn't get much windier than what is shown below. 

 

Something tells me tomorrow's storm isn't going to amount to a "historic", Hanukkah Eve-type storm. That being said, as evidence by today's storm, they don't always go as modeled. Still some uncertainty, even within 48 hours.

 

I like to use the 925 mb winds to estimate gusts. Look for an area with strong instability and you could even get 850s mixing down to the surface.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My power has been out for about 12 hours now . Did not even get very windy last night. 

[Tundra]

NWS Portland @NWSPortland

"Likely waterspout/tornado to strike the long beach peninsula between cape disappointment and Long Beach within the next 2-3 min!"

 

https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/786964206776004608

[Timmy Supercell]

All those red boxes... 

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/35jvuwo.jpg

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS says we might actually dry out for a few days next week.   Pretty much dry on that run from late Tuesday all the way through Saturday.  

 

Looks like the 12Z Canadian agrees.   

 

Might not have much fall color to enjoy by that point though with all the wind.

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like it was blustery in Manzanita...