October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

Flickering in bothell

[Abbotsford_wx]

SEA is back up to 34 kt gusts with the squall line.

[MossMan]

Power flickers.

[MossMan]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/the-storm-reveals-itself.html?m=1

[crf450ish]

So whats in store for us next?

[crf450ish]

It wasn't much but this is from a cell that passed over about an hour ago. Highest gust we've gotten so far. These squall lines going through the Sound right now are probably our best shot at winds mixing down for some gusts.

 

Power has flickered a couple times.

 

https://youtu.be/C6g913qH-6U

Those toothpick trees can be deadly....

[MossMan]

So whats in store for us next?

Sounds quiet through the end of the month...someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds quiet through the end of the month...someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

 

Sure looks much quieter...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

That's what I thought when we moved here 5 or so years ago but I was very surprised at how much they can withstand. Only 2 or 3 (of many) have fallen over the years.

 

 

They grew up withstanding windstorms all their life.    If they all blew over in every windstorm they would not get very high.  

 

The trees around here are very strong against the east wind.   East wind can crank for days and there is barely a branch on the ground.  

[MossMan]

They grew up withstanding windstorms all their life. If they all blew over in every windstorm they would not get very high.

 

The trees around here are very strong against the east wind. East wind can crank for days and there is barely a branch on the ground.

Very true! Our trees do well with Southerly but get destroyed during west wind events like what we had in Nov. 2015. Power was out for a couple of days.

[Bryant]

So whats in store for us next?

http://i.imgur.com/d6l1eEo.jpg

 

Above image depicts a nice looking wave 2 (Two areas of convection/subsidence) Nina configuration in the tropics, which would result in cooling of the ENSO regions due to subsidence over the central/eastern tropical pacific. With forcing (convection) focused over the MC, PNA should average on the negative side with NPAC ridging returning, allowing the opportunity for west coast troughing. Wouldn't be surprised to see models begin to pick up on a cooler pattern, but my accuracy has also been horrible so far this season

[TT-SEA]

Wow... SEA is up to 5 inches of rain for the month already.   Normal is 3.48 for the entire month.  

[Front Ranger]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/the-storm-reveals-itself.html?m=1

 

Ah, the good ol' Chanukah Eve Storm.

[westcoastexpat]

NWS calling for 60 mph gusts for western Whatcom county. Seems a bit more sensible. Their 75 mph call seemed pretty aggressive earlier today.

[westcoastexpat]

I think my call for 65 mph gust for western metro Vancouver is going to be in jeopardy. I was thinking peak gusts would be about an hour or two from now and conditions appear to be fairly calm.

[seattleweatherguy]

Bothell had lights flicker but not much wind, storm over if so thank goodness I didn't book that hotel

[crf450ish]

Lots of people tweeting at NWS Seattle saying how this storm was "overhyped" and "typical Seattle forecasters creating more headlines than what it ends up being" and how it was "pretty much quiet all night".

 

Hopefully this doesn't lead to a 'boy who cried wolf' scenario with a stronger storm later this year, that people should actually take seriously.

Hasn't this happened before? I vaguely remember my folks and some others reminiscing over some winter weather event in the 90's that was only supposed to be a small dose of wind and maybe a few flakes. Turned out it was much worse and actually scary in some areas....thats all I recollect from bits and pieces of what I've heard from them over the years. 

[Bryant]

http://i.imgur.com/d6l1eEo.jpg

 

Above image depicts a nice looking wave 2 (Two areas of convection/subsidence) Nina configuration in the tropics, which would result in cooling of the ENSO regions due to subsidence over the central/eastern tropical pacific. With forcing (convection) focused over the MC, PNA should average on the negative side with NPAC ridging returning, allowing the opportunity for west coast troughing. Wouldn't be surprised to see models begin to pick up on a cooler pattern, but my accuracy has also been horrible so far this season

To add to the above, it goes without saying, but the strong and extended jet we are currently experiencing will retract and return to East Asia. This allows blocking to build over the Pacific thanks to the meridional flow (versus the current zonal flow), and essentially resets the pattern to allow for a cold pattern down then road. The raging jet has cooled the blob for now, but the media attention may return in the coming weeks as heights build over the Pacific once again. #returnoftheblob

 

Current jet:

http://i.imgur.com/nsN1rzf.jpg

 

Forecasted jet:

http://i.imgur.com/MHaKfCi.jpg

[crf450ish]

To add to the above, it goes without saying, but the strong and extended jet we are currently experiencing will retract and return to East Asia. This allows blocking to build over the Pacific thanks to the meridional flow (versus the current zonal flow), and essentially resets the pattern to allow for a cold pattern down then road. The raging jet has cooled the blob for now, but the media attention may return in the coming weeks as heights build over the Pacific once again. #returnoftheblob

 

Current jet:

http://i.imgur.com/nsN1rzf.jpg

 

Forecasted jet:

http://i.imgur.com/MHaKfCi.jpg

Hmmm. Blob.....

[MikeInEverett]

All Seattle area meteorologists and the NWS are being attacked by the general public on twitter right now.

[Bryant]

All Seattle area meteorologists and the NWS are being attacked by the general public on twitter right now.

Yes they should have backed off once the details became more clear, but they did have a very tough forecast in their defense. The general public doesn't realize the difficulty of forecasting

[Parksvillewx]

Nothing crazy up here..at least at my house. Quite a few outages on the south island though.

 

[North_County]

Just started blowing noticeably up here on the border within the past 10 minutes.

[seattleweatherguy]

All Seattle area meteorologists and the NWS are being attacked by the general public on twitter right now.

Bummer our technology is not good enough.

[crf450ish]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[MossMan]

Major uptick in the wind now!! Just had a 50ish gust I would guess!

[Brennan]

Still nothing to speak of really here in Bellingham... an occasional guest to 30 maybe? MAYBE.

[Bryant]

Still nothing to speak of really here in Bellingham... an occasional guest to 30 maybe? MAYBE.

Quite the bummer for those of us who enjoy wind storms

[Weather101]

Wow. Well at least I can watch the cowboys game tmrw

[MossMan]

Well we had two or three good gusts to near 50 but wow what a let down. Time to move on, we are now about 4-5 weeks away from snow being a possibility!

[snow_wizard]

Lots of people tweeting at NWS Seattle saying how this storm was "overhyped" and "typical Seattle forecasters creating more headlines than what it ends up being" and how it was "pretty much quiet all night".

 

Hopefully this doesn't lead to a 'boy who cried wolf' scenario with a stronger storm later this year, that people should actually take seriously.

 

People on this forum were saying the winds in Seattle were being over hyped for the last couple of days.  I'm really surprised they were so all in on this.  I am quite surprised how the winds flopped for the North Interior though.  Nobody could have known that.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile I'm liking the looks of the 6 to 10 day period much more than a few runs ago.  Better GOA ridge showing up now.  Amazing how the trend continues for the models to get chillier as time frames narrow instead of warmer.

[Brennan]

Peak gust 44 one time at BLI. This is just weird. Had a windstorm ever busted before? I didn't know busts existed outside of snow and arctic air. Early season disappointmeny first time in my life.

[MossMan]

Peak gust 44 one time at BLI. This is just weird. Had a windstorm ever busted before? I didn't know busts existed outside of snow and arctic air. Early season disappointmeny first time in my life.

They have before but not to this level...this was just bad.

[Bryant]

I'm not a huge fan of organic forecasting as I feel it has bust potential more often than not, but I figured this was worth mentioning. The typhoon "rule" states that if a typhoon recurves away from China and/or Japan, then a trough will impact the eastern US 6-10 days later. On the flip side of the rule, if a typhoon fails to recurve, then typically 6-10 days later we see a trough in the west/ridge in the east. The reasoning behind this rule has to do with the flow and upper air patterns which cause a typhoon to recurve, or vice versa. Typhoon Songda (who's remnants were just felt here) recurved due to an area of low pressure around east Asia associated with the extended jet, which essentially reflected the typhoon, later phasing with the westerlies. When a typhoon doesn't recurve however, there is typically an area of high pressure near east Asia, which represents a retracted jet stream.

 

Given the above information, Songda began to recurve around the 11th/12th, and we see a trough digging into the east on the Euro 10 days later. I mainly started this whole post due to typhoon Sarika and typhoon Haima, both progged to head straight into east Asia with no recurve. Will the rule hold true? If so, downstream trough should be seen sometime in the last week of the month. Sorry for the rant

[Abbotsford_wx]

People on this forum were saying the winds in Seattle were being over hyped for the last couple of days.  I'm really surprised they were so all in on this.  I am quite surprised how the winds flopped for the North Interior though.  Nobody could have known that.

 

Yeah, it's pretty bizarre. The low followed a nearly ideal track for this area. Every single model was showing extreme wind up here.

 

Not much in the way of heavy rain, either. You'd never guess it was the remnants of a typhoon. Yesterday's storm had far more convection.

[whitechristmas]

It was explained down here (PDX area) that another low pressure area formed behind today's "big blow" and sucked some of the energy out of it. Or else it just plain sucked. It's always something with our weather. Ok...on to our first SNOW event...brace yourselves!

 

[Abbotsford_wx]

Peak gust 44 one time at BLI. This is just weird. Had a windstorm ever busted before? I didn't know busts existed outside of snow and arctic air. Early season disappointmeny first time in my life.

 

I dunno, I've seen a few wind storms bust up here. Bellingham always tend to get hit though, even when the winds bust everywhere else.

[BLI snowman]

It was explained down here (PDX area) that another low pressure area formed behind today's "big blow" and sucked some of the energy out of it. Or else it just plain sucked. It's always something with our weather. Ok...on to our first SNOW event...brace yourselves!

 

Yeah, it seems like the double low thing really minimized the wind field even more than the models expected. And it was a small one to begin with. 

[Deweydog]

It was explained down here (PDX area) that another low pressure area formed behind today's "big blow" and sucked some of the energy out of it. Or else it just plain sucked. It's always something with our weather. Ok...on to our first SNOW event...brace yourselves!

It performed about as well as you'd expect for a low on the track it took, such a small circulation and meager pressure rises on the backside.