October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Nothing crazy up here..at least at my house. Quite a few outages on the south island though.

 

outagesoct152.jpg

About on par with yesterday's storm here. A quick burst of SW winds around 8pm. 4 hour power outage yesterday and only about 1hour tonight.

[MossMan]

A good write up by Scott Sistek...

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/what-the-heck-went-wrong-with-the-storm-forecast

[snow_wizard]

#returnoftheblob

 

 

 

 

 

 

How about #thebloblivesagain or #attackoftheblob

 

This whole blob thing has gotten so out of hand.  The shape and placement of the blob is pretty important and nobody in the media (including Bastardi) seems to know that.  A blob caused by a persistent GOA ridge normally translates to a -PDO.

[Bham_Guy]

I dunno, I've seen a few wind storms bust up here. Bellingham always tend to get hit though, even when the winds bust everywhere else.

 

It happens here too...although not usually to this extent.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not a huge fan of organic forecasting as I feel it has bust potential more often than not, but I figured this was worth mentioning. The typhoon "rule" states that if a typhoon recurves away from China and/or Japan, then a trough will impact the eastern US 6-10 days later. On the flip side of the rule, if a typhoon fails to recurve, then typically 6-10 days later we see a trough in the west/ridge in the east. The reasoning behind this rule has to do with the flow and upper air patterns which cause a typhoon to recurve, or vice versa. Typhoon Songda (who's remnants were just felt here) recurved due to an area of low pressure around east Asia associated with the extended jet, which essentially reflected the typhoon, later phasing with the westerlies. When a typhoon doesn't recurve however, there is typically an area of high pressure near east Asia, which represents a retracted jet stream.

 

Given the above information, Songda began to recurve around the 11th/12th, and we see a trough digging into the east on the Euro 10 days later. I mainly started this whole post due to typhoon Sarika and typhoon Haima, both progged to head straight into east Asia with no recurve. Will the rule hold true? If so, downstream trough should be seen sometime in the last week of the month. Sorry for the rant

 

It may hold true in both cases this time.

[Bryant]

How about #thebloblivesagain or #attackoftheblob

 

This whole blob thing has gotten so out of hand. The shape and placement of the blob is pretty important and nobody in the media (including Bastardi) seems to know that. A blob caused by a persistent GOA ridge normally translates to a -PDO.

When the blob was originally hyped, it was associated with El Nino and a warm winter, and unfortunately it seems to have stuck with everyone.

[snow_wizard]

A good write up by Scott Sistek...

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/what-the-heck-went-wrong-with-the-storm-forecast

 

Extremely well written.

[snow_wizard]

I think the only thing I would have done differently from the NWS and local media would have been to downplay the wind potential for the Seattle area.  Other than that they had every reason be pretty dire in their predictions.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS and ensemble was much better for chilly weather prospects later in the month.  The operational takes 850s down to zero and control model plunges to -4.

[Dave]

I have no idea who coined the name, but the NWS deserves a little egg on the face on a busted storm when they refer to it with a sensationalist name before it hits.  The "Ides of October" storm.  

[snow_wizard]

I have no idea who coined the name, but the NWS deserves a little egg on the face on a busted storm when they refer to it with a sensationalist name before it hits.  The "Ides of October" storm.  

 

I hadn't heard they did that.  Very embarrassing for them.

[Dave]

I hadn't heard they did that.  Very embarrassing for them.

I have no idea if the NWS Seattle used that term, but the NWS Portland certainly did.  I'm unsure how to pull up the past forecast discussions, but it was mentioned there more than once over the last few days.

[Deweydog]

I certainly hope heads roll over this.

[Dave]

I certainly hope heads roll over this.

Agreed.  

 

Found the damning evidence:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=xxxafdpqr&wfo=pqr&font=120&version=4

[Deweydog]

Agreed.

 

Found the damning evidence:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=xxxafdpqr&wfo=pqr&font=120&version=4

You find this on Wikileaks?

[Dave]

You find this on Wikileaks?

Close.  It was located by Anonymous.

[snow_wizard]

I certainly hope heads roll over this.

 

It was certainly a temptation of fate.  I would never name a weather event before it happens.

[Deweydog]

It was certainly a temptation of fate. I would never name a weather event before it happens.

You can name just about anything, whether it sticks is another matter. I'd say the only place it'll stick is Manzanita.

[snow_wizard]

I just had to post this.  It's the latest CFS run.  While not all of them have been this nice most of the recent runs are very blocky for January and many have the block over the Pacific.

 

 

[Sometimesdylan]

Picked up about 4 inches of snow tonight after one of our longest dry stretches in October history... wacky weather!

[Weather101]

December 2nd it will snow. Mark it down.

[FroYoBro]

December 2nd it will snow. Mark it down.

 Just put it in my calendar. Thanks!

[MossMan]

December 2nd it will snow. Mark it down.

I know I might not be popular for saying this but I sense a November 21st snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Acually it has snowed many times on December 2. Thats my birthday and can remember snow many times. That november 25 thru december 5th or so is a good snow chance.

[stuffradio]

The wind bust up here, but we should be thankful instead of disappointed. It was fun to track though...

[Brennan]

[MossMan]

[Brennan]

I loved Scott Sistek's write up. He is so genuine and real and certaily isn't afraid to own up and take heat for the meteorological field.

[Brennan]

[MossMan]

I loved Scott Sistek's write up. He is so genuine and real and certaily isn't afraid to own up and take heat for the meteorological field.

It was and honestly it got a lot of people ready for winter weather including myself. We are ready for a wild and crazy winter!!

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/a-short-comment-about-storm.html?m=1

[luminen]

The wind bust up here, but we should be thankful instead of disappointed. It was fun to track though...

 

I'm glad it wasn't windier because there were already a lot of power outages on Friday and it was only 30-40 mph winds.

[crf450ish]

Last winter we needed but didn't have:

 

*Snow blower

 

*Electric heated wire that zig zags along the leading edge of roof (ice dam prevention)

 

*Generator

 

*Snow plow for our 4x4 ATV

 

*Snow brakes on roof of house (roof is metal)

 

We now have all of it except the last thing above. Last year was a massive learning curve for my wife and I and we noted everything that needed to nd addressed

[BLI snowman]

Picked up about 4 inches of snow tonight after one of our longest dry stretches in October history... wacky weather!

 

Jet has been way suppressed versus its usual position in the first half of October. I'm already over 7" for the month. Has to be a record through this point.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Where does sometimesdylan live?

[TT-SEA]

Some sunshine at times here on the day after our huge storm that did absolutely nothing at my location...

 

[Phil]

Jet has been way suppressed versus its usual position in the first half of October. I'm already over 7" for the month. Has to be a record through this point.

You've got that right. Not your typical Niña/+QBO look..strong poleward V-WAFs/EHEM MTs.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/017732CF-7770-4E6A-A191-5B85E19EC012_zpsxr3yslmn.gif

[Phil]

Another big shot coming up it looks like. ECMWF suite less enthusiastic but similar story.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BB276442-A4D9-416C-8AD2-1E1AD083D9ED_zpsiqxodmyi.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Jet has been way suppressed versus its usual position in the first half of October. I'm already over 7" for the month. Has to be a record through this point.

 

 

Its has been incredibly wet.