November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

*Crickets* ......

 

I happen to really like 00z GFS(Upstream) Persistent ridging/anomaly over the North Pacific nosing near the Aleutians which could be good if amplification takes place and exactly where it sets up. A good ways to go to be "good", but it's far better than the stubborn GOA vortex. Signs an Omega block might be setting up after day 10. So far out one can only speculate and only barely at that.

Watch what happens if that flat Aleutian ridge decides to stick around for awhile. For the sake of this forum, I hope it doesn't.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles 500mb anomalies.

HR 210 Definitely some improvement here

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110800/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_36.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110800/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_39.png

[Deweydog]

Flat ridge phobia!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Mountain snow at least, perhaps significant. Probably see snow cover build in BC/AB too. NPAC ridge flattens after day 10-12... Cooler NW flow rather persistent.

[Phil]

Flat ridge phobia!!!

Haha, yeah pretty much. I wouldn't be as worried if the Niña convective state were stronger (hence better synchronization w/ fluxes under QBO). Can't rely on that if intraseasonal forcing is dominating.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF in 2 minutes!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Flat ridge phobia!!!

Definitely, but it's early November. Not panic time yet! Baby toddler steps.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'd be surprised if we don't get decent mountain pack again this winter. If a Super Nino gave K-Falls 2x normal snowfall, no snow this winter would be a total fluke at the least.

[Phil]

Flat ridge phobia!!!

:(

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57788D99-5A4D-4DD1-AA53-5D6FCF34B267_zpsjletxumu.gif

[stuffradio]

If you vote for me, I'll make the biggliest ridge. It will be the biggliest ridge you've ever seen, and it will be the greatest ridge you've ever seen. All the ridges love me. The ridges are the smartest ridges, and also the biggliest.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Gradient Keeper]

:(

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57788D99-5A4D-4DD1-AA53-5D6FCF34B267_zpsjletxumu.gif

Not ideal of course, but it could be much, much worse for us PNW folks.

[Front Ranger]

360 hrs out, anyhoo. The world may have descended into Trump anarchy by that point.

[Gradient Keeper]

360 hrs out, anyhoo. The world may have descended into Trump anarchy by that point.

Not to get political, but if by some unforeseen chance Trump does win, I'd be concerned about any violence, rioting, civil disobedience, etc coming from the liberal left/democractic supporters. You rarely if ever see conservatives doing any of those things. Okay, back to Weather.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF HR 96

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500a_npac_5.png

[Front Ranger]

Not to get political, but if by some unforeseen chance Trump does win, I'd be concerned about any violence, rioting, civil disobedience, etc coming from the liberal left/democractic supporters. You rarely if ever see conservatives doing any of those things. Okay, back to Weather.

 

As long as we don't lose access to the Euro, I'm good.

[Gradient Keeper]

As long as we don't lose access to the Euro, I'm good.

Absolutely!

[bainbridgekid]

SEA broke their record high by 4 degrees today. Yawn.

[TT-SEA]

Not to get political, but if by some unforeseen chance Trump does win, I'd be concerned about any violence, rioting, civil disobedience, etc coming from the liberal left/democractic supporters. You rarely if ever see conservatives doing any of those things. Okay, back to Weather.

 

 

I have seen posts and interviews with redneck militia types stockpiling weapons for a civil war if Hillary happens to win!  

 

I am more concerned the other way with the potential for problems.   Trump has his supporters so convinced that the entire system is rigged that they are a powder keg waiting to go off.

[Front Ranger]

SEA broke their record high by 4 degrees today. Yawn.

 

This was already reported by Snow Wiz. 1949, 2008, etc.

[Gradient Keeper]

This was already reported by Snow Wiz. 1949, 2008, etc.

.... and we know what happened back then!

[Timmy Supercell]

SEA broke their record high by 4 degrees today. Yawn.

 

I was 5 away from record of 68 in 1978. While 70+ is possible here it is hard to come by. I was actually delighted I was in the 60's today, comparing to the last half dozen November's I have experienced.

[Front Ranger]

.... and we know what happened back then!

 

Ominous flat Aleutian ridging.

[Front Ranger]

It really is kind of uncanny how record warmth this time of year with -ENSO years has had nice results later.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_7.png

[Phil]

360 hrs out, anyhoo. The world may have descended into Trump anarchy by that point.

Not taking that verbatim, obviously. Just pointing out that the climatological loading pattern for a GOA vortex is indeed a flat aleutian ridge. Can be an incredibly self-sustaining dynamic.

[stuffradio]

I have seen posts and interviews with redneck militia types stockpiling weapons for a civil war if Hillary happens to win!  

 

I am more concerned the other way with the potential for problems.   Trump has his supporters so convinced that the entire system is rigged that they are a powder keg waiting to go off.

I've seen posts and interviews from astrophysicists that the sky is blue, doesn't mean it's true!

[Front Ranger]

I have seen posts and interviews with redneck militia types stockpiling weapons for a civil war if Hillary happens to win!  

 

I am more concerned the other way with the potential for problems.   Trump has his supporters so convinced that the entire system is rigged that they are a powder keg waiting to go off.

 

You should probably start stockpiling weapons to protect yourself either way.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not taking that verbatim, obviously. Just pointing out that the climatological loading pattern for a GOA vortex is indeed a flat aleutian ridge. Can be an incredibly self-sustaining dynamic.

I want an incredibly self-sustaining amplified block along 160 W. Let's do that instead.

[Deweydog]

You should probably start stockpiling weapons to protect yourself either way.

I decided to stockpile gun control advocates instead.

 

I think Tim and the internet is right. Mayhem and flat ridging starting 24 hours from now.

[TT-SEA]

You should probably start stockpiling weapons to protect yourself either way.

 

 

Right.  

 

Rob brought it up.   I think the chance for problems is higher if Clinton wins.    Not that there is much of a chance either way.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500a_npac_9.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Right.  

 

Rob brought it up.   I think the chance for problems is higher if Clinton wins.    Not that there is much of a chance either way.

Well, I kind of did, but kind of didn't too. Either way, yeah we all know there likely will be some disgruntled, angry, ignorant folks who might do something. That would be very stupid on their behalf.

[Deweydog]

Anyone staying up for the 6z?

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyone staying up for the 6z?

Who isn't? 6z is only 2 hours 33 minutes away

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 - Wind storm pattern. 982mb low deepening approaching north Washington Coast

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

[TT-SEA]

Way to not take it there, in this thread.

 

Its the eve of the election... and the subject of problems after the election was mentioned.     Relax Jared.   

[Deweydog]

Way to not take it there, in this thread.

I read somewhere Jim is a Trump supporter.

[Sometimesdylan]

*Crickets* ......

 

I happen to really like 00z GFS(Upstream) Persistent ridging/anomaly over the North Pacific nosing near the Aleutians which could be good if amplification takes place and exactly where it sets up. A good ways to go to be "good", but it's far better than the stubborn GOA vortex. Signs an Omega block might be setting up after day 10. So far out one can only speculate and only barely at that.

I hope you guys get some cold air!  00z GFS shows us getting nice and cold for us in the day 7-8 timezone. Looking like a decent snow storm to sea level. Just need something to carry that chilly air your way I think. I don't know enough three letter acronyms to figure out what one it will be, though. Will be interesting to watch!